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Observations (and occasional brash opining) on science, computers, books, music and other shiny things that catch my mind's eye. There's a home page with ostensibly more permanent stuff. This is intended to be more functional than decorative. I neither intend nor want to surf on the bleeding edge, keep it real, redefine journalism or attract nyphomaniacal groupies (well, maybe a wee bit of the latter). The occasional cheap laugh, raised eyebrow or provocation of interest are all I'll plead guilty to in the matter of intent. Bene qui latuit bene vixit.

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Friday, October 24, 2003

THE GREATER FOOL THEORY
In keeping with our bearish outlook today, I've found a bit by
Clive Maund - who really, really likes gold a lot more than, say, I do - that explains the Greater Fool Theory. He also manages to work in "dead cat bounce", another fun financial definition I learned last year.
There is a season for everything, and October is not only the time „of mists and mellow fruitfulness“, it’s also the season for a good old fashioned general market crash. The big bear market rally from March of this year has been one of the biggest “dead cat bounces” in history. It was caused mainly by pure speculation, for the traditional investor these days is almost an object of derision, pity even – the term conjures up images of doddering old fools in shabby suits who’ve travelled huge distances to get to shareholders meetings, where they brandish annual reports and ask awkward questions of the wolves who are living the high life on the company’s back. One such meeting was televised in Germany, during which Deutsche Telekom investors, conservative, solid citizens, who thought they were on to a sure-fire winner, and who wouldn’t dream of investing in gold stocks, expressed their outrage at having lost about 80% of their investment. There was something tragic-comic about it.

The speculation in the general US markets and NASDAQ stocks this year, which could be named "Son of Bubble", was fuelled by the kerosene of a sea of liquidity pumped out by an increasingly desperate Fed, and by the application of “the greater fool theory” by speculators – you know you’re being an idiot buying these stocks, but you know there’s an even bigger idiot coming over the horizon who will take them off your hands at an even higher price. The question now is “Have we finally exhausted the supply of idiots?” – it’s really looks like we may have done, and if so we are likely to witness one of biggest stampedes for the exits in investment history.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 01:59:33 PM | link

NEXT SOCK PUPPET, PLEASE
Paul Erdman isn't mincing words over at CBSMarketWatch. He opines about the current Secretary of the Treasury:
"This guy should be fired right away, before he does even greater harm to the standing of the United States as the financial powerhouse that the world looks to for economic leadership. The nation's reputation has already suffered enough as a result of the growing fiasco of our occupation of Iraq."
Erdman doesn't understand the basics of bushonomics. Anyone who replaces Snow will follow exactly the same marching orders, and eventually they'll run out of people who both have enough economic street cred to be taken seriously and are willing to piss that credibility away forever following the cabal plan (in return for a hefty financial consideration, albeit).
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 01:43:20 PM |
link

SELL 'EM SHORT
Meanwhile, the folks at the
Daily Reckoning are telling their readers how they can profit both themselves (financially) and others (morally) by selling their tech stocks short.
"If we had any guts we'd be selling the techs short," noted a friend yesterday.

Stocks began their bear market rally a year ago. Since then, they've recovered roughly half their losses on the Dow.

But the techs on the Nasdaq did even better -- doubling and tripling...going right back into wild blue yonder whence they came. Amazon.com now trades near 95 times suspicious earnings. Yahoo's P/E is 112.

Anything is possible, but it is extremely rare for the leading shares in a stock market bubble to bounce back to their previous highs.

"We know from past bubbles," writes Marc Faber, "that ultimately they don't end with the prior winning stocks leading us out of the bear market. Rather they end with the laggard stocks from the bubble years being the object of investors' desire."

"Tech stock rally deflated yesterday," states the New York Post. The headline appeared the day after we (by genius or dumb luck) suggested it was time to 'sell the techs.' "Investors worry that the most recent market bubble is ready to burst," continues the Post. Cisco lost 2%. Computer Associates lost 8%. Amazon, that great big river of no returns, lost 9%. Microsoft lost 46 cents per share, after it announced the slowest growth in 3 years.

Most likely, the techs will continue falling until they reach sensible prices or go out of business. Kodak -- a great tech company -- made its high in the "Nifty-Fifty" bubble of 1968. In real terms, it never again traded at such a high price. And Polaroid...another great tech company -- recently went bust, a victim of innovation. It never exceeded it bubble-year price of the early '70s. That is the problem with new technology; there is always newer technology...and always a price to pay for an excess of enthusiasm.

Investors, buying these tech companies at absurd prices, are practically giving money away. Why not take it? You will be doing God's own work...dear reader...helping to teach valuable moral lessons to those who need them. You might also be paid well.


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 01:35:30 PM | link

CYCLES VS. STRUCTURE
Stephen Roach replies to those who ask "Where could you be wrong?" vis a vis his past predictions that structural weaknesses in the economy would eventually over[come/whelm] cyclical market trends.
...
There’s one more piece to the cyclical critique -- the distinct possibility that a significant portion of the recent revival reflects a borrowing of gains from the not-so-distant future that will be followed by the inevitable payback (see my October 13 dispatch, “Payback Time”). That conclusion rests on the basis of my assessment of two key pieces of the recent global growth revival -- an extraordinary burst of durable goods spending by the American consumer in the two middle quarters of this year and a credit bubble in the Chinese economy in the first half of 2003. Inasmuch as consumer durables never really fell in the recession of 2001, the recent 25% annualized surge of such buying in the second and third quarters of 2003 cannot be justified on the basis of a classic cyclical unleashing of pent-up demand. Instead, it appears to reflect the temporary impacts of this summer’s tax cut, aggressive vehicles sales incentives, and the last-gasp impacts of the home mortgage refi bonanza. Standard stock-adjustment models, as well as historical experience, suggest that a payback in the form of a pullback in durable spending is coming shortly. At the same time, Chinese monetary authorities have begun what I believe will be a concerted effort to unwind the excesses of a bank lending cycle that pose the very real risk of a new wave of nonperforming loans in China. As Andy Xie has argued, a reduction in bank lending will have the unmistakable effect of slowing Chinese capital formation and Chinese commodity demand -- factors that have been central in shaping perceptions of a sustained revival in the global economy (see Andy’s October 20 dispatch, “China: Sharp Slowdown Ahead” and his October 23 note, China: Slowdown Impact -- Minerals vs. Metals). A payback on both counts is likely in early 2004, in my view.

All this is another way of saying that much of the world’s newfound cyclical vigor may be far more tenuous than it appears on the surface. If that’s correct, don’t count on a lasting cyclical offset to ongoing structural headwinds. The vigor of the recent data flow may be exaggerating the possibility of a meaningful shift in the balance between these two sets of forces. If the cyclical revival turns out to have been as temporary as I suspect, the world may well have to come to grips with another growth scare in early 2004. Frothy financial markets are leaning precisely the other way.

I'm just trying to figure out exactly when that puritan doctrine permeating those currently in charge of the commonwealth - as well as their most loyal sycophants - lost its "excessive debt is not for thee" component. Maybe they swapped it for that "terminating a pregnancy is not for thee unless thee can afford a physician to do it in the privacy of your mansion" component. It's so hard to keep up these days.
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 01:24:25 PM | link

"ABSOLUTE STINKING RUBBISH"
Robert Folsom explains why you might as well pay a whore instead of a professional mutual fund manager to manage your retirement funds. Oh wait, you already are.
Yesterday I described Wall Street's latest brainstorm: "Managed" 401(k) accounts, which will give workers "the option of having a professional mutual-fund picker manage their retirement accounts."

I also promised to examine the assumption behind this scheme, namely that an investor's funds, and the decision about where the funds should go, "is best left to professionals."

In truth there's not much to examine. The idea that fund managers in general are less emotional or more rational about the stock market is absolute stinking rubbish. All the evidence -- and I do mean ALL -- says the opposite. A handful of individual managers are a tiny exception, but I'm talking about the overwhelming rule.

Fund managers reflect the same herding psychology that governs the behavior of the average investor. In page after page & chart after chart, Bob Prechter's Conquer the Crash showed that there's almost no distinction among academics, economists, brokerage strategists, money managers, the media, the public: The vast majority of stock market participants/observers are hugely bullish at major highs, and similarly bearish at major lows.

In the case of money managers, the best way to measure this is the aggregate "cash/assets ratio." It shows what percentage of mutual fund assets are in cash. For more than 40 years this ratio has been stunningly consistent: At market lows, fund managers hold larger percentages of assets in cash. At market highs they hold smaller percentages of assets in cash. In other words, at times of major opportunity and of great danger, fund managers are the least prepared.

The smallest-ever percentage of mutual fund assets in cash was less than 4%, right at the stock market peak in 2000. Yes, fund managers were more than 96% invested in stocks at the all time highs.

And now, after a seven-month rally in stocks? The latest available figure shows the cash/assets ratio at 4.6%, an extreme reading by any historic measure.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 11:43:18 AM | link

50 WAYS TO MISLEAD THE PROLES
U.S. News writes of a report suggesting that Jessica Lynch's isn't the only story coming out of Iraq that's more fiction than fact.
Just as former Ambassador Joseph Wilson's story that Bushies blew his CIA wife's cover to get back at his criticism of the war in Iraq was getting old, he has stumbled on new ammo to hit the administration's credibility. Wilson tells us he plans to circulate the text of a briefing by analyst Sam Gardiner that suggests the White House and Pentagon made up or distorted over 50 war stories. You know some tall tales, like the Pvt. Jessica Lynch story. But there's more, says Gardiner, a war gamer who has taught at the National War College. Like how defense officials said the first Iraqi unit marines encountered, the 51st Mechanized Infantry Division, had surrendered four days before it actually did. And he says Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Richard Myers gave bad or deliberately incomplete info on several topics. Sure, propaganda has always been used in war to deceive and demoralize the enemy. But these guys went way overboard, Gardiner says. "Never before have so many stories been created to sell a war," he insists. "And they probably didn't need it."
A PDF version of Gardiner's report is available.

As to the Jessica Lynch fable, PR Watch discovers an entertaining connection to another tall tale.

Expect lots of media hype soon over the first Jessica Lynch-related book by Iraqi Mohammed Odeh al-Rehaief. According to some reports he told U.S. Marines the location of the captured Private Lynch. He and his family were then granted U.S. asylum. Along with the chance for U.S. citizenship, al-Rehaief received $300,000 from Rupert Murdoch's Harper Collins for his new book about the Lynch rescue. He also was given a job at the Livingston Group, a high-powered D.C. lobby firm. His book "Because Each Life Is Precious: Why an Iraqi Man Came to Risk Everything for Pvt. Jessica Lynch" is being promoted by his Livingston Group colleague Lauri Fitz-Pegado. She is infamous for her work at Hill & Knowlton PR in 1990 coaching the Kuwaiti girl called "Nayirah" in her shocking but phony testimony on Congressional hill that she'd seen Iraqi soldiers murdering Kuwaiti babies. That stunt helped propel the U.S. to war against Iraq in 1991. Fitz-Pegado's client was the ruling family of Kuwait and the baby-killing claims were later shown to be false. The new book is well timed since it will precede by a few weeks Jessica Lynch's own book, half-a-million copies of which will hit bookstores on Veterans Day, November 11th.

posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 11:16:31 AM | link

PRIVATIZING NIH
Via
Progressive Review, we learn that the cabal is planning to privatize NIH.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) plan to put thousands of scientific support jobs up for bid by outside contractors drew fire this week from agency watchdogs.

In a letter sent to Joshua Bolten, director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Tommy Thompson, secretary of Health and Human Services, Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) and the Maryland congressional delegation complained that the outsourcing plan would put NIH at risk because it "meddles with scientists, opens the door to unnecessary security threats, and seriously undermines morale and productivity."

The NIH effort is part of the Bush administration's effort to privatize as much government work as possible. Over the next few years, outsourcing could affect as many as 4600 jobs on the sprawling 327-acre NIH campus in Bethesda, Md., just outside the US capital.
...

So the privatization "miracle" is going to be visited on another government agency, with the usual justifications being trotted out by the usual suspects. Now where have I heard all of this before? Let's hop in the wayback machine, shall we? Let's go back to the U.S. weapons labs in the 1980s and discover what miracles were wrought by the privatization of Sandia, Lawrence Livermore, and the other labs. To avoid being tainted by evil liberal bias, we'll turn to a Heritage Foundation report from 1999, wherein they - the sworn enemy of the inherent and inevitable evils of gummint - demand more federal intervention.
...
The labs are independent entities whose operations are managed by private contractors. Most of the security problems involved the contractors' employees; they reflect years of neglect and/or violations by personnel who are not DOE employees and are not subject to direct day-to-day DOE supervision.
...
The record of security problems at DOE labs and the DOE's systematic failure to rectify long-standing inadequacies indicate that what the labs need most is more and better federal oversight, not less.
...
It's really quite a remarkable report in that it piles on detail after detail of security problems and the abuse of taxpayer money by private contractors working at the labs without once mentioning exactly which administration led the way in privatizing the labs. They do give a few really subtle hints, though, e.g.
Although federal law enforcement agents may never be able to prove that the DOE weapons labs were the source of the nuclear secrets now in possession of the People's Republic of China, the investigation to date has revealed that the labs have been woefully deficient in meeting basic security standards and that the existence of these deficiencies stretches back two decades.
...
That sentence starts with what was codespeak amongst the right at the time for "that bastard Clinton sold us out to the commie Chinese", and ends with a soft "stretches back two decades", leaving the gentle reader to figure out just what that meant coming from a report written in 1999.
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2003 09:50:05 AM | link

Thursday, October 23, 2003

BUSINESS AS USUAL FOR THE CABAL
Shaista Aziz talks of a report detailing how 80% of the money raised by Iraqi oil sales by the Coalition Provisional Authority has disappeared. Those familiar with the history of the cabal are neither shocked nor appalled by this.
A leading British charity has accused American and British administrators in Iraq of failing to account for $4 billion in oil revenue.

Christian Aid has produced a report, Iraq: The Missing Billions, to coincide with a US-led international conference in Madrid aimed at securing money to rebuild the country.

The report's co-authors, Dominic Nutt and John Davison spent two months working on their findings.

The report reveals that billions of dollars of Iraqi oil money, transferred to the US-controlled Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), has effectively disappeared.

Christian Aid has been able to account for only $1 billion of the total $5 billion raised from Iraqi oil sales.

John Davison told Aljazeera.net that serious questions need to be asked about the accountability of the CPA.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2003 05:27:48 PM | link

NO TRICK TOO DIRTY OR LOW
The
Contra Costa Times reports on a couple of incidents indicating that the cabal's dirty tricks squad is hard at work attempting to enforce ideological purity amongst the dissident proles.
Santa Cruz Mayor Emily Reilly is warning her constituents in this liberal beach town not to jump to conspiracy theories about several unusual events involving her bakery in the days since the city council decided to challenge President Bush.

It was Reilly who, after a Santa Cruz City Council vote on Sept. 9, sent a letter to Washington asking the U.S. House Judiciary Committee to consider impeaching President Bush.

Four days later, a sophisticated burglar pried moulding off a window at Emily's Good Things to Eat bakery, evaded a motion detector and stole an old computer hard drive and the hard-drive backup.

Then, on Sept. 17, Emily's Good Things To Eat bakery was visited by an agent of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration who introduced himself, showed his identification, and looked around. He asked if they used artificial coloring (heavens no!) or if they transported anything across the state lines (they've been known to mail cookie-grams).
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2003 05:21:31 PM | link

Wednesday, October 22, 2003

THE TAX CUT JOKE
Gregory Bresiger offers a few paragraphs with some most interesting numbers about the payroll tax.
...
For example, according to the Congressional Budget Office, 42% of American families are paying more in payroll taxes—taxes that go to pay for Social Security and Medicare—than they pay in income tax. And here, once again, is another source of confusion about payroll taxes.

The 42% figure doesn't include the amount that your employer pays on your behalf. So when public officials quote the 7.65% rates for the system they are either ill informed or deceptive. (Actually, either one is a good bet. Nevertheless, since most pols are Social Security shills, my money—or the measly amount that remains after Uncle Whiskers has picked my pockets—is on the latter).

When the employer paid portion of the tax is added, then the percentage of American households that pay more in payroll taxes than income taxes is 74%. Since your employer is paying the tax on your behalf, it certainly is reasonable to include the higher figure. However, I have heard more than one defender of the system, such as my clown congressman, say that payroll taxes are "only 7.65%."
...

What Bresiger, a loyal scribbler for the Von Mises Institute, fails to mention is that the payroll tax is capped at $68,400. That is, you only pay the payroll tax on the first $68,400 of your income. So every one of the 74% of American households that pay more in payroll taxes than income taxes are households that make less than $68,400.

So which tax has the cabal cut, and which does it want to cut more? And which has it not mentioned nor ever will mention cutting, or raising the upper limit? That's right, the most regressive tax we have. The tax that means nothing to those in the upper income bracket who gain the most from the income tax cuts.
posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 01:40:31 PM | link

BEAR TRAP
Jerome Guillet and Tania Sollogoub provide a brief history lesson to those who might be a little quick to ostensibly take advantage of Moody's having upgraded Russia's investment rating to Baa3. One might profit to remember that investment houses - like most businesses - make their decisions based on maximizing their own profit, which is increased whenever an investor buys something, whether that investor profits or loses heavily from the transaction. While there might be some negative feedback from clients that invest heavily in Russia and lose it all, this would be more than balanced by the seemingly infinite gullibility of most of the investors, who will most likely return almost immediately to make more transactions.
Moody's has taken the drastic and unusual step of upgrading Russia's rating by two notches, to Baa3, bringing it up to investment grade for the first time ever. This decision surprised the market, but more in its timing than its actual content, which was already heavily talked about. It has been perceived as an acknowledgment of the recent strong performance of the Russian economy as well as a strong endorsement of President Vladimir Putin himself, coming three months prior to the State Duma elections. And yet the likely effect of this upgrade could be to accelerate the occurrence of a new Russian crisis.
...
One must remember that Russia has been quite an innovator in the "business" of default and crisis-precipitation (1998 was the first ever moratorium on a country's domestic debt, for instance). There is no legal framework in the sense of laws being consistently and fairly enforced, the banking sector does not finance the economy in any meaningful way and the Kremlin has shown that it does not tolerate independent powers, whether in the press (witness the successive independent TV stations shut downs) or in the business sector (witness the current crackdown on Yukos, widely seen as a message that all businesses must be subservient to the president). More significantly, the Western world has very limited leverage over Russia, as the political inertia over Chechnya confirms. Even if Western-owned assets were to be confiscated, the West would still continue to buy Russian oil and gas on which it is increasingly dependent. Russia actively maintains its international capacity for nuisance (as with the Iranian nuclear program) even when supposedly a strategic ally of the United States. Financial markets - and rating agencies - have shown they have no memory of Russia's recent history and thus cannot impose discipline on Russian counterparties. And while the big Russian companies have clearly no interest in a crisis today (as opposed to the situation in 1998), Russian authorities, especially the parts controlled by former KGB members who have been brought into power in recent years, are in a very different position. They resent and crave the wealth of the oligarchs, and could very well find it easier to fleece Western investors in Russia than to wage an uncertain war with the existing oligarchs for control of their wealth.

While it is currently unfashionable to say so, foreign investors should be fully aware of the dangers of putting their money in a country where arbitrary decisions are a way of life.

It is possible to do business in Russia and to make money, and it is possible to trust individual companies or partners and enter into mutually beneficial transactions. But the blanket endorsement of Russia provided by Moody's is extraordinarily dangerous and may haunt that institution - and put its credibility under strain - in the years to come.


posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 11:41:51 AM | link

CABAL GIVES VETERANS BUM'S RUSH
The
Misleader - "a daily chronicle of Bush administration distortion" - offers some interesting data about the cabal's treatment of soldiers it no longer finds useful.
Two years ago, President Bush said, "Veterans are a priority for this administration... and that priority is reflected in my budget." But, a year ago, when he had a chance to approve an emergency funding bill that included $275 million for medical care of veterans, he said, "We'll spend none of it."

Now the President's 2004 budget request for the Veterans Administration will effectively cut spending for its already-stretched health care system. Because of increased medical costs at an above-inflation rate of 4.7% and increased enrollment of 8%, the American Legion calculates that Bush's 2004 request "comes $1.9 billion short of maintaining an inadequate status quo."

A task force commissioned by Bush himself has reported that federal funding to handle the ailments of former soldiers continues to be considerably less than their needs. In the past ten years the spending per patient dropped from almost $15,000 to less than $5,000.

More than 235,000 veterans are currently waiting six months or more for an initial appointment.


posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 11:29:17 AM | link

ANOTHER TASK FOR THE "MIRACLE" WORKERS
Mary Ellen Klas writes of the health care crisis in Florida, the next task faced by Jeb "Miracle" Bush. The problem? The same generic problem being faced nationwide.
...
When carriers raise the cost of insurance, more individuals and companies decide they can't afford it anymore and drop it. As more people go without insurance, more get sick without seeing a doctor and wait for an emergency to get treated. When hospital emergency rooms treat people without insurance, they pass most of the cost on totheir paying customers, most of whom use insurance.

That makes the cost to insurance companies rise. Insurers pass these rising costs on to employers. Employers either shift the costs to their employees by raising premiums or co-payments and deductibles, or they drop the coverage.

And so the cycle continues.
...

The solution? Expect to hear more bullshit about "attrition rates" not meeting expected goals as the Bush cabal "solves" yet another problem by cutting taxes on the wealthy and supplying incentives for the proles to think themselves healthy or die.
...
Fixing the problem won't be easy. Employers are seeking relief, employees don't want to give up benefits, and the Republicans, who control the executive and legislative branches, haven't shown much willingness to subsidize coverage.
...
By the way, a good solution was in place, but it failed the only cost-benefit analysis that matters in Bush's America: it benefitted the ill too much and the health care industry too little.
...
Florida has addressed many of these problems before. A decade ago, Medicaid enrollment was growing at an alarming rate and Gov. Lawton Chiles and legislators spent several years trying to find a way to offer a lower-cost health insurance option to the uninsured.

Their solution was a system of community health insurance alliances that allowed individuals to join a pool to obtain coverage. The system covered more than 100,000 people at its peak but was feared by many in the insurance industry, who believed the program could become so large it would control the market.

The reason the program didn't succeed, said Connie Ruggles, a senior analyst at the Agency for Health Care Administration and former administrator of the program, was that it was given little leeway to negotiate with insurers and, under the Bush administration, it was gradually dismantled.
...

That is, it worked for the patients despite severe restrictions placed on it - most likely at the behe$t of insurance industry lobbyists - but it made Bush supporters in the insurance industry executive suites unhappy, so it was nuked.

And the latest crisis isn't a matter of coddling the poor, but rather getting health care for working stiffs.

...
Today, the committees say, the profile of the uninsured is different. The welfare-to-work laws, as well as the continued proliferation of low-wage jobs in Florida, have led to a new class: the uninsured working poor. State studies show that more than 60 percent of the people who have no health insurance work in full-time jobs and 68 percent of them are at a business with 50 or fewer employees.

In the past, the uninsured were more often people who were economically disadvantaged or financially bankrupt by bad health, Thurston said.

"Today, working class, hard-working people can't get health insurance, they can't get health care," he said. "This is no longer: 'Let's do something altruistic to help the poor.' This is: 'We've got to do something or the economy will shut down.' "
...

Now for a vicious editorial note: Any of those working stiffs who still supports and votes for Bush deserves whatever he or she gets. If they still don't get it even after Bushonomics has replaced their former high-paying jobs with benefits with lower-paying positions without benefits, then they richly deserve to become part of the "expected attrition rate" talked about by those they so slavishly support. But, to be fair, the significant percentage whose health was ruined by Clinton getting a hummer in the White House probably don't deserve it.
posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 10:50:11 AM | link

ANOTHER COMPONENT OF THE FLORIDA "MIRACLE"
Diane Hirth describes another facet of the "miraculous" job done by Jeb Bush and Donna Arduin - his budget director who's being loaned to the Gropenfuhrer to perform a similar "miracle" in California - in Florida. To remain "fair and balanced", we must point out that those parasitic little sick kids would have no incentive to stay well if the state kept mollycoddling them with medical care.
Children now enrolled in KidCare, the state's subsidized-insurance program for children, may be forced onto its growing waiting list.

KidCare is struggling to stay within budget and maintain the July 1 legislatively imposed freeze on total enrollees.

Under a new state Medicaid policy that goes into effect Dec. 1, kids turning age 5 or becoming seriously ill while enrolled in KidCare will lose coverage and go on the waiting list. They no longer will be automatically transferred from the MediKids program for children ages 1-4 to the Healthy Kids program for ages 5-18 and, if the children became seriously ill, to Children's Medical Services.

Previously, children enrolled in KidCare could remain in the program even as their age or medical condition changed.

"Normally it's seamless. Now they'll go on the wait list," Bob Sharpe, head of Florida Medicaid and deputy secretary of the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration, said Tuesday.
...

The twisted fuckhead of the week award goes to Joyce Raichelson, the apparatchik just following Jeb Bush's orders as program administrator for MediKids, for the following:
"We're trying to live within the budget allocated. We're not experiencing the attrition that would bring us within budget for this fiscal year. That was the most equitable way it could be handled....It's not a pleasant thing to do, but it's necessary."
Let's translate the banality of that bushspeak, shall we?
"The little bastards aren't dying quickly enough to stay within the budget we need to ensure that the ultra-wealthy get even wealthier."
Yes, Joyce feels their pain but it's a sacrifice she's willing to make to ensure the survival of a Bush America wherein equitable means taking the medicine out of the mouths of children to ensure that multi-millionaires can afford a third vacation house, off of which medicine will trickle for the children on the waiting list, of course.
posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 10:22:41 AM | link

NO BUSINESS LIKE SHOAH BUSINESS
As the cabal is to those who served in the military in this country, so is the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany to those who actually suffered during the Holocaust.
Jay Bushinsky writes about how - just like in the cabal - the propaganda arm rides in limousines while those who suffered ride - if anythiing - the bus. Millions and millions are spent to propagandize causes in the name of those who suffered, while those who are nothing more than expedient symbols for the propagandists are apparently supposed to survive on the trickle-down effect. There should be an extra circle in hell.

But , in keeping with our new "fair and balanced" policy, it should be pointed out that the holocaust survivors who complain about this situation are self-loathing Jews, and the gentiles Holocaust deniers (and probably closet Islamofascists).

Aging Holocaust survivors, many in their late 70s and 80s, are complaining they suffer from poverty, insufficient medical care and inadequate housing while the organization that is supposed to care for them sponsors costly educational projects and pays its executives lavish salaries.

The criticisms are directed at the Conference on Jewish Material Claims Against Germany, which consists of 24 Jewish organizations based in the United States and other countries.

It funnels money allocated by the German government to Jews who were interned in Nazi death camps, were confined to ghettos and suffered religious and racial persecution during World War II.

The claims conference, as it is popularly known, has financial reserves that exceed $1 billion, according to experts.

The sum not only includes the constant and punctual flow of funds from the Berlin government, but also money from dormant Swiss bank accounts whose original owners perished in the Holocaust and life-insurance policies never redeemed by their beneficiaries.

At the modest office of the Organization of Former Prisoners of the Nazis in downtown Jerusalem, Yosef Fuchs laughed when asked how much money he receives from the claims conference.

He said it deposits 810 euros ($945) in his bank account every three months.

"You cannot exist on that money," he said.

Mr. Fuchs' plight mirrors that of an estimated half-million Holocaust survivors, most of whom no longer have gainful employment and many of whom face the prospect of geriatric care that they cannot afford.

It applies to wartime death camp inmates, ghetto resistance fighters and slave laborers around the world, including in the United States.

The American survivors' bitterness and disappointment was expressed by Leo Rechter, executive director of the National Association of Jewish Holocaust Survivors.

Addressing a U.S. Jewish community session on services rendered to Holocaust survivors, Mr. Rechter said: "U.S. soldiers who were prisoners in Iraq for 10 days are received as heroes, but survivors who were enslaved for years are treated like second-class citizens or mendicants."
...
Mr. Rechter said the priority given to education and cultural efforts is too high.

"A $50,000 sponsorship of a symposium or other nonessential project could have paid for at least 4,000 hours of home care," he said.

Referring to the "critical needs" of aging survivors, Mr. Rechter said thousands are "lying alone, plagued with their memories of their horrific sufferings during the Nazi years and racked with despair how the world is abandoning them once again."

There are an estimated 500,000 Holocaust survivors worldwide of whom 127,000 to 145,000 live in the United States.

A resolution passed May 1, 2003, by the California State Assembly states that "many are elderly and infirm and some are living in abject poverty and lacking basic needs including food, shelter and medical care."

The ultimate anomaly cited by the claims conference's critics here and abroad is its relatively vast financial resources compared to its parsimonious monthly allocations.

"Its distribution system is an utter failure," a senior Israeli official said, contending that "thousands of survivors do not receive enough money, medical treatment, food or shelter."

Martin Stern, whose grandparents died in Auschwitz after being deported from Czechoslovakia in 1944, referred to the claims conference's demand that it be granted ownership of 98,417 properties in former East Germany that had no legally confirmed claimants when the communist regime collapsed.

Ultimately, it gained possession of 8,089 of them, which were defined as having been "expropriated" from their original Jewish owners by the Nazis. "This turned the claims conference into reunified Germany's biggest single real estate owner," Mr. Stern said.

He also assailed the claims conference for having enlarged its treasury with the failure to return most of the dormant Swiss bank accounts to their rightful heirs.

"The Swiss bank audit, the most expensive audit in history, resulted in over 353,000 names of potential account holders," Mr. Stern wrote in the Jerusalem Post. "But, of these, barely 21,000 were listed in the Internet following acrobatic compromises."

He pointed out that the amount set aside in the settlement by the Swiss banks to pay bank account holders was $800 million.

Describing a similar case of dealing with Holocaust victims' unclaimed life insurance policies by companies that had and still have headquarters in Switzerland, France, Italy, Germany, Holland and Austria among others, Mr. Stern laments the fact that the unpaid benefits accrue to the claims conference.

Critics say $40 million in administrative expenses by the International Commission of Holocaust Era Insurance Claims (ICHEIC) is excessive.

ICHEIC was set up in 1998 by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, the World Jewish Congress, Israel and several European insurance companies that issued policies to European Jews destined to perish in the Holocaust: Assicurazioni Generali, AXA, Alliance, Swiss Life and Winterthur Versicherung.

A recent congressional hearing on its activities was told that its operations cost $58 million to date, while its disbursements to claimants of these policies was $36 million.

It "makes deals without any intention of giving the money that accrues to anyone, but just to get into its own coffers," Mr. Stern said.


posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 09:51:40 AM | link

ARNIE AND THE KINGMAKERS
A
Scotsman piece from Sept. 2002 shows Arnie meeting up with the kingmakers a year before the same people would pay for his ascension to royalty. Here the future Gropenfuhrer of the Left Coast is flanked by Warren Buffet and Lord Rothschild at the European Economic Round Table.

Arnie and the Kingmakers

And here's a most prescient bit from the article:

...
After a string of flops - remember Eraser, End of Days and Collateral Damage? Probably not - the actor needs next year’s Terminator 3 to hit paydirt. Should the film nosedive he plans to move into politics and run for the governorship of California, the platform from which Ronald Reagan propelled himself into the White House.
...

posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2003 09:37:26 AM | link

Tuesday, October 21, 2003

THE PRESS CONFERENCE YOU WON"T HEAR ABOUT ON TELLY
Al Martin writes of a press conference moment you won't hear the "liberal media" reporting, as well as about a new White House policy with which the Stalinists hope to further squash dissent from the proles. The cabal can now immediately declare someone an enemy of the state. Or, more accurately, they now have yet another way to declare someone an enemy of the state.
...
There was a little screw up in the live press conference with Bush and the president of Kenya. This was still live, not the pre-edited delayed canned cold feed they’re going to. The White House press office announced that this new technology will not be in place until the end of the year. However, what happened in the press conference is that Bush got tag-teamed in a question from a reporter. He had called on a reporter from the Christian Science Monitor. She immediately looked to the guy next to her who stood up and asked Bush a question about his family’s connection to Karl Rove. Bush pointed at the guy (he wasn’t identified) and said, “That question is subversive. You people in the media were warned about asking subversive questions.” Another press release tried to explain this screw up by the White House press office that they’re not going to tolerate any more tag teaming from reporters whose questions have not been approved.

(Maybe they’ll be frog-marching journalists out of the White House in ankle chains next.)

The new policy states that asking any questions about Bushonian fraud and misdeeds now constitutes subversion. Any journalist who asks questions may face prosecution because the president now has the power to declare the asking of any question to be “subversive.”
...

Al also has some predictions about the Gropenator, you know, the Bush stooge that many idiots heading for a future appointment with the unemployment line are still attempting to rationalize as a "moderate republican" who won't do the things Bush - who the same dumbasses convinced themselves was a "moderate republican" a few years back - has done.
...
There are three things Arnold will do. He will immediately try to cut taxes for the Republican Rich in California. Then he will immediately cut top tax rates for the largest corporations in California, which are mostly defense contractors. He will not provide any special money for Silicon Valley, other than those corporations which are pro-Republican like Oracle and Hewlett Packard. That’s why he talked about targeted tax cuts for Silicon Valley, instead of blanket tax cuts, because he doesn’t want to reward pro-Democrat firms.

Then you will see that those tax cuts will be given to pro-Republican corporations in Silicon Valley. Larry Ellison will make out very well. He was on TV and he’s buying a new $5 million yacht because he’s anticipating the new tax cut.

Arnold will immediately seek to cut social spending – education and public health. He will try to take away the money that Gray Davis gave to the Latin community. He passed a landmark health care bill that the republicans are determined to reverse. This shifts a lot of the burden from the government onto the employer.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/21/2003 05:05:18 PM |
link

THE 9000 LB. OIL DRUM
Michael Ruppert muses on the
international landscape, supplying, amongst other things, a hint as to why the human rights situation in West Africa will get much worse before it gets better.
...
The race now is to stabilize Iraq in time to rebuild the infrastructure, and bring its 11% of proven world reserves online. The US majors won't invest there until it is safe. On October 11, The Arabic News reported on a recent World Bank report stating that the reconstruction of Iraqi infrastructure would require four years and more than $50 billion (US). This is another reason why the Bush junta is in jeopardy. There are few left anywhere who believe that they have the cachet to pull it off. The oil companies have lost confidence in the oil men.

Had the US not invaded Iraq, however, French, Russian and German companies would currently be working on billions of dollars of contracts to refurbish the oil infrastructure, thus increasing the amount of Iraqi oil (priced in Euros rather than dollars) reaching world markets by legal or extralegal means outside of UN sanctions. Since the occupation, we have learned much about Iraqi oil being smuggled through Syria, and by other means. As a result, Europe and Russia would have been getting economically stronger and "marking territory" for the day when oil for food sanctions were inevitably lifted. Europe's economy is now sustained by the speed with which Russia can sell its diminishing oil reserves - estimated at just under 60 billion barrels (Gb) - something that it appears eager to do. This will inevitably force Britain into the EU at an accelerated pace, especially if BP can't get any supplies out of Iraq. (Note: Russia's 60 Gb is enough to supply global needs for just under two years excluding all other sources, and it is now being pumped faster than ever. According to Reuters, on August 4, 2003 Russian exports had reached 8.5 million barrels per day.) Since Russia has long passed its production peak, it is problematic as to whether these levels can be sustained for more than ten years.
...
Frustrated that they cannot safely get to Iraqi oil, the American majors are frantic to secure supplies from an ever-diminishing global reservoir; hence the recent frantic expansion of drilling and investment in West Africa. One of the biggest signs of the reality of Peak Oil over the last two decades has been a continual pattern of merger-acquisition-downsizing throughout the industry. Chevron bought Texaco. Exxon bought Mobil. TotalFinaElf bought Arco. Now, one of the largest oil buyouts in history has been announced in Russia as Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Yukos has just acquired Sibneft creating the fourth largest oil company in the world. This, even as Chevron, Shell and Exxon have been reportedly frantically trying to acquire a 40% stake in YukosSibneft. As of this writing, Exxon appears to have emerged the winner as the Russian government announced on October 7th that it found no reason to block Exxon's purchase. The game of musical chairs has begun.

An announcement in Reuters on October 8th that Russia may soon price its oil in Euros explains the additional incentive for American companies to own a piece of the Russian pie. Such a move would drastically weaken the dollar. And while US taxpayers would suffer under a staggering debt burden as a result, Exxon would reap major new profits as the Euro surged in value; further proof that corporations, not nations, rule the world.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/21/2003 04:41:17 PM | link

ANOTHER THEORY ABOUT THE FAKE NIGER PAPERS
Seymour Hersh supplies another theory about the origin of Niger papers considered a fake by all sentient beings in the universe save for the PNAC cabal. The short version: they were faked by U.S. spooks apparently unaware of the pathological nature of a cabal that - instead of admitting they were wrong were they to claim that 2+2=5 - would attempt to legally redefine mathematics to make it so.
...
Another explanation was provided by a former senior C.I.A. officer. He had begun talking to me about the Niger papers in March, when I first wrote about the forgery, and said, “Somebody deliberately let something false get in there.” He became more forthcoming in subsequent months, eventually saying that a small group of disgruntled retired C.I.A. clandestine operators had banded together in the late summer of last year and drafted the fraudulent documents themselves.

“The agency guys were so pissed at Cheney,” the former officer said. “They said, ‘O.K, we’re going to put the bite on these guys.’” My source said that he was first told of the fabrication late last year, at one of the many holiday gatherings in the Washington area of past and present C.I.A. officials. “Everyone was bragging about it—‘Here’s what we did. It was cool, cool, cool.’” These retirees, he said, had superb contacts among current officers in the agency and were informed in detail of the sismi intelligence.

“They thought that, with this crowd, it was the only way to go—to nail these guys who were not practicing good tradecraft and vetting intelligence,” my source said. “They thought it’d be bought at lower levels—a big bluff.” The thinking, he said, was that the documents would be endorsed by Iraq hawks at the top of the Bush Administration, who would be unable to resist flaunting them at a press conference or an interagency government meeting. They would then look foolish when intelligence officials pointed out that they were obvious fakes. But the tactic backfired, he said, when the papers won widespread acceptance within the Administration. “It got out of control.”
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/21/2003 04:19:28 PM | link

Monday, October 20, 2003

A CONUNDRUM FOR SUPPLY-SIDE JESUS
Via
The Looking Glass, we learn of a tragedy in New York City.
Last Sunday, as her night shift neared, Kim Brathwaite faced a hard choice. Her baby sitter had not shown up, and to miss work might end her new position as assistant manager at a McDonald's in downtown Brooklyn.

So she left her two children, 9 and 1, alone, trying to stay in touch by phone.

It turned out to be a disastrous decision. Someone, it seems, deliberately set fire to her apartment. Her children died. And within hours, Ms. Brathwaite was under arrest, charged with recklessly endangering her children.
...

Brathwaite is a single mother. You know, the kind advocates of welfare reform constantly lambast to get off their backs and off to work. She did.
...
Recently promoted to assistant manager at the McDonald's, Ms. Brathwaite was required to work a rotating mix of morning, midday and nighttime shifts that made reliable child care nearly impossible to keep on her modest wages. Nor could she leave early, since she was responsible for securing the day's receipts. When desperate calls to the missing sitter and a neighbor went unanswered, her lawyer said, she was afraid of losing the job that supported her children.
...
Both of her children also had sickle-cell anemia, a condition that often requires hospital care. And I'll bet a whole lot of money that the McDonald's health plan - if any existed at all - didn't cover half of their ongoing medical expenses. I'll also bet that she would have lost her job if she'd skipped out to be with her kids, with the upper management telling her something along the lines of "we're sorry, but we're running a business here." And as long as we're mortgaging the family farm, wanna bet McDonald's will find some way to fire her now? After all, she neglected her children.
posted by Steven Baum 10/20/2003 11:40:27 AM | link


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