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Observations (and occasional brash opining) on science, computers, books, music and other shiny things that catch my mind's eye. There's a home page with ostensibly more permanent stuff. This is intended to be more functional than decorative. I neither intend nor want to surf on the bleeding edge, keep it real, redefine journalism or attract nyphomaniacal groupies (well, maybe a wee bit of the latter). The occasional cheap laugh, raised eyebrow or provocation of interest are all I'll plead guilty to in the matter of intent. Bene qui latuit bene vixit.

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Friday, April 11, 2003

DEBTS OWED
Larry LaBorde crunches some numbers to discover the public debt load of the average family. Note that this doesn't include whatever private debts you might have incurred.
...
The national debt currently stands at $6.46 Trillion dollars. If we all just divide this evenly between all 281 million US citizens (lots of luck there because we all know who will pay the lion's share of this one) you will find that your little family of four is responsible for $92,000.00! If there are a few "poor" people in the country that can not afford their share guess who will have to "cost share" their part?

Do not forget the cost of our present little excursion into Iraq. Estimates of the war including occupation and rebuilding run around $100 billion (some estimates even go as high as $1,200 billion or 1.2 trillion dollars). Using the $100 billion dollar price tag, this adds another $1,424 of debt to our average family of four. (again not counting that pesky cost sharing that all of us in the middle class are all too familiar with). Also, if anyone at the Dept of State is making out a list of countries that need a regime change this number will naturally do nothing but go up and up. Unfortunately I am afraid the list of tin-pot dictators that need a trip to the woodshed will be greater than our ability to take all of them out there.

Our trade deficit represents current outstanding IOUs for our goods and services. This is sort of like a poker game where you run out of money and then start using IOUs instead of cash. Not a problem until they are presented for payment at the end of the game. These foreigners hold IOUs or US dollars that have built up on their shores. Why do they hold our paper dollars you may ask? Because our US dollar is the world reserve currency. Why you may ask? Good question! Perhaps it is because of the strength that our dollar used to have. Perhaps it is because they feel there is not an alternative. Perhaps it is just a bad habit. Many of our best friends in Europe that we are now trashing hold a large number of these IOUs that are redeemable at any time. The best I can estimate for a total of trade deficits over the past 50 years (with most accumulating recently) is $2,800 billion or $2.8 trillion dollars. If all these chickens come home to roost at the same time we must pay them off with our goods are services. Again our family of four paying its average share should add another $39,850 of debt.

The social security system also has this little problem called an unfunded liability. If Uncle Sam had to operate under the same rules as everyone else the state sponsored retirement program would be right at $5,000 billion or $5 trillion dollars in debt (this figure like all the others is getting bigger all the time). This is over and above the national debt and is not included in that figure. And you thought Enron was out of control! Our average family of four needs to add on another $71,174 of debt to its list of obligations.

There is more but I think you are starting to get the picture. We are up to over $200,000 in FEDERAL government debt for every family of four in our country.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 02:59:50 PM | link

THE SACRED CHICKEN
Bill Bonner writes of imperial Rome, sacred chickens, the historical widow market, and other topics at the
Daily Reckoning.
What was remarkable about the war against Iraq was not the performance of U.S. troops...for that was expected, but the incompetence of their opponents.

It was not so much that the Iraqi military made a pitiful adversary for the U.S...but that Iraq seemed not to have a military at all. The small groups of resistance fighters seemed to be acting on their own, with no general, coordinated plan of defense. Bridges were left intact for the enemy to drive over as if commuting to work. Defensive positions were abandoned...or never put up in the first place. Oil wells continued to pump...and Saddam, at what appeared to be a crucial moment, did not lay waste to the country in front of the enemy's advance...nor did he appear on the battlefield, like Napoleon or Lee, to bolster his troops...instead, he went out to lunch!

Even before the war began, foreign correspondents in Iraq reported very little preparation for war. And then, when the war began, Iraqi soldiers did not rush to man the defenses, for the country had none.

The whole spectacle was not so much tragic, as pathetic. It was as if Goliath attacked David and found the lad without a slingshot. Worse, these hapless Davids didn't even know how to use one.

Last week, we wrote to express our disappointment in George W. Bush. Today, we write to express our admiration. We now see more clearly the genius of the Bush Administration's hawks: threaten your enemy with war if he fails to disarm...send inspectors to make sure he has disarmed...and then attack him because the weapons inspectors failed to turn up anything.

The tactic was worthy of the ancient Romans. No one likes to be the first one to attack; the gods of war do not favor an aggressor. But if you must attack first, you usually try to find a good reason...or pretext...for taking action.

"The Romans would send over the sacred chicken," my friend Michel explained a few weeks ago. "They would send a chicken to the barbarian tribes as a 'peace gesture'. Of course, the barbarians - not realizing the chicken was sacred - would eat it. Then, the Romans felt they were justified in going to war - because their enemies had eaten the sacred chicken!"

All over modern Rome are monuments to its imperial wars...or to the emperors and generals who led them. They are built into the basement walls of breweries and churches...or stand out in the open, after centuries of dirt have been pushed aside.

We have come to Rome, dear reader, not to study the history of empire, but to wallow in it. We roll around in it as if in mud...until it sticks in our hair and under our fingernails. And what we notice is that America's wars against Iraq and Afghanistan...while they may be extraordinary...are hardly unprecedented.

From its very beginnings, in the 8th century B.C., Rome saw the need to defend its frontiers by subduing enemies - actual and potential. The Etruscans, Sabines, Ligurnians - one tribe after another...the Sicanes...the Sardinians... Picanians...Illyrians...Euganians...Celts...Gauls... Germans...Parthians...Medes...Carthaginians...

The list goes on and on, with each mention marked by battles, wars, and triumphs...and occasional defeats...

But we needn't go back to the ancient world to find wars as extraordinary as the war against Iraq. Indeed, as recently as the 19th century, the colonial battles fought by the British as they expanded their empire were not so different. In these encounters - such as the battle of Khambula against the Zulus in 1879 - small, well-organized, and disciplined groups of British troops, armed with the latest technology, were able to defeat armies far superior in number...and subjugate land areas many times the size of Britain itself.

Or perhaps we could compare it to the Greek War of Independence...in which Britain intervened against the Turks early in the 19th century. The Turks were so badly organized and so badly trained that British naval officers maintained that "the safest place to be is in front of the Turkish guns". The war might have been billed as Operation Greek Freedom, if the British had had more regard for opinion polls; the liberators thought they were freeing the descendants of Plato and Euclid from the shackles of Moslem oppressors. The English were soon masters of the military situation...but they had no idea of what they had gotten themselves into.

Lord Byron, for example, went to Greece to help finance, personally, the war of independence. He was soon appalled and embarrassed by the whole thing. For what the Greeks wanted was not so much independence as an excuse to cut the Turks' throats...and what the English had begun was not so much a noble war of liberation, but a general bloodbath - in which Turks and Greeks killed each other by the thousands.

So many men were killed on both sides that a lively traffic developed in widows. Women were bought and sold even before the war...but in the carnage, the price of a woman dropped to a fraction of the pre-war level. Enterprising Englishmen donned turbans and acquired harems. Soon, dashing portraits appeared in English salons...a monument or two were set up in London...and then the whole affair was forgotten.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 11:21:01 AM | link

"WARFARE STATE"
I don't know if they coined the phrase, but the folks at
Agora, Inc. have certainly brought the phrase of the month to my attention, and there's not a picogram of irony or sarcasm or even litotes in their use of it. Their "Investor Survival in the War Without End" (again, no sarcasm) investment come-on is most entertaining reading.
Profiting From the American Warfare State
...
We are in the middle of a sea change in military and technological development. After years of dwindling defense spending after the Cold War, we are entering a period where spending will go right back up to the levels it's had historically.

We're in a new, very serious war that may be unlike any war we've ever been in. We don't know where it will be, we don't know who it will be with, and we don't know how long it will last. And it won't be like previous wars where defense stocks went up and then down. We have to rebuild the entire military to face this unprecedented challenge.
...
The Aerospace/Defense group of the stock market -- where you'll find the big defense stock names -- sports a market cap of $119 billion.

The five largest of the 56 companies in the group -- Boeing, General Dynamics, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman -- have a combined market cap of $98.5 billion, or just over 80% of the sector's total market value.

Of the remaining 51 companies, only five have market caps in excess of one billion dollars. Which means that 46 of the 56 companies in this sector are fairly small companies. And the big institutional investors usually ignore small-cap stocks like these. Which means there's an opportunity for individual investors like you and me to find some very attractively priced stocks.
...
First, take a look at long-term U.S. defense spending as a percentage of gross domestic product. During World War II it rose to almost 40% of GDP. Even the historic average during the Cold War was nearly twice the current level of around 3%. But this is about to change.

In his most recent budget, President Bush requested nearly $400 billion in military spending. By 2007, that number will hit $500 billion. Defense companies are already lining up for their share. And the companies I've selected are sure to benefit.

The next presidential election is less than two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. But history shows that Americans are reluctant to replace a popular leader during war. President Bush certainly qualifies as popular. As the old saying goes, "Don't change horses in midstream." And people believe that.

My forecast: Bush will win the election in 2004. And with a Republican Congress, defense spending will rise at an even faster pace. It's true that a potential recession and slower economy will cause the federal government to run 1980s-style budget deficits. But it's hard to imagine Americans would want anything less than the strongest military possible for the war on terror. Defense spending won't get cut. It will go up. Always has when we're in a war. And it always will.


posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 10:54:11 AM | link

MISSION IN BURMA
What does the
State Department think of Burma?
...
The Government of Burma (GOB) severely abuses the human rights of its citizens. There is no real freedom of speech, press, assembly, association, or travel. Burmese citizens are not free to change their government. Religious minorities (particularly Christians and Muslims) are discriminated against and any form of proselytizing is discouraged. Security forces also regularly monitor citizens' movements and communications, search homes without warrants, and relocate persons forcibly without just compensation or legal recourse. In June 2002, the Shan Human Rights Foundation (SHRF) accused the Burma Army of using rape systematically as ``a weapon of war'' in ethnic minority areas along the Thai border. The regime denied those charges and has not agreed with UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Burma Paulo Sergio Pinheiro on the ways and means for an effective, impartial international investigation of these allegations. However, the government did recently intervene and punish both an army officer found guilty of rape and his commanding officers. Forced labor also remained an issue of serious international concern, despite some limited government efforts to control the practice. An International Labor Organization (ILO) Liaison Officer was appointed to Burma in October 2002 and, at the direction of the ILO Governing Body, has attempted to hammer out a ``viable program of action'' with the government to eliminate forced labor. Thus far, those efforts have not achieved the stated objective.
...
And how about the squishy NGO crowd? Surely they support the thugs in Burma if only because the State Department doesn't.
...
Take over 300,000 men, many of them under the age of 17 and largely uneducated. Force some of them to enlist at gunpoint and promise all of them a salary they never receive entirely. Give them guns and bombs. Train them to shoot, to crawl through the jungle at night, to ambush. Convince them that their enemies are ethnic minorities, students, women, anyone who disagrees with the government, and that these millions of people are traitors or infidels. Starve them. Withhold their mail and don’t allow them to send any letters. Forbid them from visiting their families. Force them to beat each other for punishment. Abandon some of them if they are too sick to walk. Abuse them verbally and physically every day. Allow them plenty of alcohol and drugs.

You have just created the army of Burma’s illegitimate regime, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, SLORC.1 This army, called pyithu Tatmadaw, or the peoples’ Tatmadaw, plays such an enormous role in the everyday governance of Burma that it is virtually indistinguishable from the ruling regime. Most of the ministers and deputy ministers who constitute Burma’s cabinet are current or past members of the Tatmadaw. The Tatmadaw is the government, and the government controls politics, the economy, and the daily lives of Burma’s citizens.2

SLORC tries with varying success to regulate what the outside world knows about the daily lives of Burmese people. For many millions, particularly those involved in the movement for democracy and members of ethnic minorities, brutality and subjugation are the order of the day. As a result of the army’s crackdown against the democratic uprising of 1988, revolutionary and ethnic groups continue to battle the Tatmadaw. This widespread warfare has resulted in thousands of deaths, countless villages destroyed, and the incremental destruction of ethnic cultures. For women, especially ethnic women in rural villages and along Burma’s borders, the war has spawned human rights violations which are of particular significance for two reasons: the abuses occur against women because they are women; and the abuses are often invisible. This report seeks to make visible the structural origins of the rape of ethnic Burmese women, with particular attention paid to the institution that nurtures the rapists, the Tatmadaw.
...

Heck, Burma's even got a significant amount of hydrocarbon resources to exploit, so the Cabal won't be wasting time and American blood on a project that won't benefit Hallliburton and the rest of the big oil crowd. Let's roll! Ooooops. Apparently big oil's already there, and in very good graces with the government that all characterize as a vicious pack of thugs. Looks like it's time to dust off Jeane Kirkpatrick to give some mushy-thinking elitists a stern lecture on the difference between authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, with Burma undoubtedly belonging in the former category.
The Free Burma - No Petro-dollars for SLORC campaign was spearheaded by a call for help from ethnic nationalities living in the Tenasserim area where foreign oil companies are developing gas pipeline projects. The Karen, Mon and Tavoy Peoples are the victims of human rights abuses such as forced relocation, forced labor, pillaging, rape and torture by SLORC troops securing the pipeline area.

The campaign primarily focuses on two different gas pipeline projects operated by Total (France)/Unocal (USA) and Texaco (USA), Nippon Oil (Japan), Premier Oil (UK) in the southern Burma Tenasserim watershed. The pipeline also contains some of mainland Southeast Asia's last intact rainforests. The campaign will also focus on Arco's new contract for oil/gas exploration in the Andaman Sea.

The campaign's objective is to escalate public attention and pressure on these oil companies so that they withdraw their operations and investments from Burma until a genuine democratic government is in place.

Sorry Burma. Next.
posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 10:22:52 AM | link

"HALF-TRUTHS AND RIDDLES"
Debka asks some interesting questions.
  1. Iraqi forces began putting up resistance to the US Marines 1st Expeditionary Force attacking the Diyala River bridges early Wednesday, April 9. Suddenly at around 11 am, the Iraqi fighters vanished as one man. Clearly, someone had ordered them to give way without blowing up the bridges, a repetition of what has happened more than once since the war began. The Marines were thus able to go forward unopposed until they reached Baghdad's town center.
  2. The Diyala River defenders were not the only Iraqi fighters to become invisible. Where is the Iraqi army's 25th Division? Where are all Saddam's ministers, his generals? How come that, after 21 days of warfare, the coalition has not exhibited a single Iraqi army commander taken captive?
  3. Why has not a single senior officer in charge of weapons of mass destruction been caught – or come over? Why has no large-scale frontal battle been fought?
  4. Why did the American commanders refrain from placing Baghdad under curfew Wednesday night? - both to stop the looting and prevent the bloody settling of scores widely expected in the days to come between victims and their oppressors, members of the defeated regime and its opponents, Shiites and Sunnis, or even criminal gangs exploiting the in-between days of havoc for to occupy turf. (Saddam opened up the prisons four months before the war and put several thousand convicts in uniform.)
  5. Why did American forces fire on the Russian embassy convoy leaving Baghdad for Moscow by way of Damascus on Sunday, April 6? According to DEBKAfile’s sources, the convoy led by Ambassador Vladimir Titorenko was deliberately attacked. Yet Wednesday, April 9, the ambassador was back at his post in Baghdad, in time to witness the way Baghdad citizens welcomed US Marines. Suddenly the Kremlin's evacuation order was rescinded. His rapid return could only have been accomplished by a special flight. The question is what - or who - was the Russian convoy conveying under diplomatic cover out of Baghdad that was important enough for an ambassadorial escort all the way to Moscow? As soon as the "package" was delivered, Titorenko turned round and returned.
  6. Why did the CIA pick up Saddam Hussein's family dentist with his records Wednesday night in Baghdad? Which living or dead member of the ruling family did they want to identify? The agency is going to great lengths to prove the Iraqi dictator was present in the building in the al Mansour district of Baghdad that was bombed Monday in the belief that it concealed a command bunker. The rumor mill is working overtime on Saddam’s fate, speculation ranging from his death or injury in Monday's raid to him being hidden in the Russian embassy, in Syria or in Russia. The pressure is building up on the CIA to prevent Saddam and his sons from performing a vanishing act on the same lines as Osama bin Laden.

posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 09:52:47 AM | link

MERCENARIES TO "POLICE" IRAQ
CorpWatch reports on a likely role for the mercenaries at Dyncorp in post-invasion Oilraq.
...
Commenting on the unfolding chaos an unnamed Pentagon official told the New York Times that they were seeking something more than the United Nations peace-keeping troops: "We know we want something a little more corporate and more efficient with cleaner lines of authority and responsibility."

That plan appears to be almost ready. Half a world away from the bedlam in Iraq, just outside of Forth Worth, Texas, police recruiters are currently manning the phones for Dyncorp, a multi-billion dollar military Contractor. For Dyncorp the turmoil that is emerging in Iraq could mean a boom in business.

"When the area is safe, we will go in. Watch CNN. In the meantime fax us a resume if you want a job," Homer Newman, a Dyncorp recruiter told Corpwatch. But Chuck Wilkins, a company spokesman in Virginia, said: "The contract hasn't yet been awarded."
...

Although the contract hasn't yet *wink wink* been awarded, Dyncorp is taking resumes.
On behalf of the United States Department of States, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, DynCorp Aerospace Operations (UK) Ltd. (DAOL), a CSC Company, is seeking individuals with appropriate experience and expertise to participate in an international effort to re-establish police, justice and prison functions in post-conflict Iraq.
As to Dyncorp being a "corporate" solution that's "more efficient with cleaner lines of authority and responsibility", first the "responsibility":
...
Kathryn Bolkovac, a U.N. International Police Force monitor filed a lawsuit in Britain in 2001 against DynCorp for firing her after she reported that Dyncorp police trainers in Bosnia were paying for prostitutes and participating in sex trafficking. Many of the Dyncorp employees were forced to resign under suspicion of illegal activity. But none were prosecuted, since they enjoy immunity from prosecution in Bosnia.

Earlier that year Ben Johnston, a DynCorp aircraft mechanic for Apache and Blackhawk helicopters in Kosovo, filed a lawsuit against his employer. The suit alleged that that in the latter part of 1999 Johnson "learned that employees and supervisors from DynCorp were engaging in perverse, illegal and inhumane behavior [and] were purchasing illegal weapons, women, forged passports and [participating in] other immoral acts."

The suit charges that "Johnston witnessed coworkers and supervisors literally buying and selling women for their own personal enjoyment, and employees would brag about the various ages and talents of the individual slaves they had purchased."

"DynCorp is just as immoral and elite as possible, and any rule they can break they do," Johnston told Insight magazine.
...

And then the "efficiency":
...
He charged that the company also billed the Army for unnecessary repairs and padded the payroll. "What they say in Bosnia is that DynCorp just needs a warm body -- that's the DynCorp slogan. Even if you don't do an eight-hour day, they'll sign you in for it because that's how they bill the government. It's a total fraud."
...

posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 09:11:50 AM | link

SANCTIONING THE ASSET "GONE BAD"
Richard Sale describes a familiar Cold War tale about a former CIA asset who stopped following orders and had to be replaced.
U.S. forces in Baghdad might now be searching high and low for Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, but in the past Saddam was seen by U.S. intelligence services as a bulwark of anti-communism and they used him as their instrument for more than 40 years, according to former U.S. intelligence diplomats and intelligence officials.

United Press International has interviewed almost a dozen former U.S. diplomats, British scholars and former U.S. intelligence officials to piece together the following account. The CIA declined to comment on the report.

While many have thought that Saddam first became involved with U.S. intelligence agencies at the start of the September 1980 Iran-Iraq war, his first contacts with U.S. officials date back to 1959, when he was part of a CIA-authorized six-man squad tasked with assassinating then Iraqi Prime Minister Gen. Abd al-Karim Qasim.
...

But Saddam was a good man back then who, like Noriega in Panama, got up one day on the evil side of the bed. Right? Not quite.
...
One former U.S. government official, who knew Saddam at the time, said that even then Saddam "was known as having no class. He was a thug -- a cutthroat."
...

posted by Steven Baum 4/11/2003 08:01:16 AM | link

Thursday, April 10, 2003

A PEN WARMED IN MOSCOW
One of the many charming features of
The Exile is the scathing pen of John Dolan. Most recently he shreds a Caleb Carr attempt at non-fiction. When Carr intentionally writes fiction he does a pretty good job.
I can smell what a book's going to be like in one quick sniff. It's no great boast; anyone can do it, given time. All it takes is an aversion to people and a convenient public library in which to cringe. And time, years and years in a reading trance. Mongols know horses; Dyaks know blowguns; stereo salesmen know bad classic rock; and I know books. From the second I spotted The Lessons of Terror sitting smugly on the shelf of a Kuznetskii Most bookstore, I knew exactly what it would be like. I knew it would be a facile, opportunistic and untenable definitional/moral argument against "terrorism." And I knew it would enrage me.

All the signs were there on the cover. The cover photo: that famous image of the WTC's steel mesh standing like corporate sculpture in the ruins; the title, "The Lessons of Terror," a clear warning that there'd be a glib moral lesson scooped from quick, shallow dips in a few familiar historical periods. Worst of all was the subtitle: "A History of Warfare against Civilians—Why It Has Always Failed, and Why It Will Fail Again."

A subtitle as sermonic and silly as that, comrades, is honesty of a sort. Truth in advertising, if not content. That any educated human being could assert, in a work from a major press, that attacks on civilians have always failed and always will fail, inspired something like awe. Are you allowed to tell ANY comforting lie in America these days, no matter how absurd?
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/10/2003 07:28:30 PM | link

RADIO TIKRIT
Having just heard a piece about it on the Beeb, and being a fan of pirate radio, I did a quick search to find out the hot poop about
Radio Tikrit. The Beeb made it sound all mysterious, but others apparently have it figured out. While listening to the piece, I was thinking it's probably some sort of low-key spook operation.
In January 2003, a new Arabic-language radio station was monitored by Bjorn Fransson in Sweden. Monitoring over subsequent days revealed that it identified as Radio Tikrit. The town of Tikrit is the birthplace of Saddam Hussein, the site of the largest and most lavish of his palaces, as well as a key military stronghold, the home of the elite Republican Guard who provide personal protection to Saddam.

The programming of Radio Tikrit, which broadcasts for two hours in the evening, initially appeared to be pro-Baghdad. But certain aspects of the broadcasts did not fit in with the pattern of official Iraqi radio stations. There were no direct quotes from Saddam Hussein, and the station did not sign off with the national anthem. Also, the inclusion of a daily astrological forecast struck observers as a very unusual feature for a radio station in the Islamic world.

It wasn't long before the reason for these anomalies became apparent. Radio Tikrit is a so-called 'black clandestine' operation. On 24 February, Media Network and Clandestine Radio Watch, with whom we work closely, exclusively reported that Radio Tikrit and Twin Rivers Radio (Wadi al-Rafidayn), are "sister" stations of the London-based exile group Iraqi National Accord's own programme, al-Mustaqbal (The Future).
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/10/2003 07:19:45 PM | link

MORE ABOUT THE OIL IT'S NOT ABOUT
Peter Dale Scott reports on the results of a recent bribery trial, and how further action (or the lack thereof) might give us a clue about the oil question.
After more than three years of deliberations, a New York grand jury has finally, as expected, indicted James Giffen for making illegal payoffs on behalf of US oil companies to President Nazarbayev and other officials in Kazakhstan. It bemains to be seen whether any of those companies will also be indicted. Attention is focused on ExxonMobil in particular, because a former Mobil senior manager, J. Bryan Williams III, has also been indicted in connection with the payments.

If payments were made on behalf of Mobil, one might expect that it was Mobil who made them and accordingly that it might now face indictment.
...

Not when the Cabal's on the job. According to Scott's sources, John Ashcroft has attempted to influence two grand jury investigations of improprieties committed by (now) ExxonMobil in connection with their oil venture in Kazakhstan. Ashcroft, who recused himself from the Enron investigation because of their donations to his 2000 Senate campaign (wherein he lost to a dead man), has not recused himself in the ExxonMobil investigation, although ExxonMobil had given him more money than Enron.

Scott notes that this story...

...goes to the heart of the question of whether the "war on terror" has been not just energy-driven, but shaped and manipulated to meet the private needs and legal difficulties of oil giants like ExxonMobil, which in this case was facing possible indictment. It is relevant that ExxonMobil, while already the subject of a criminal investigation, had (as the New York Times reported on 3/1/02 and 3/27/02) access to both Vice-President Cheney's task force and to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham. In addition, as Ruppert reports, "it is clear that Kazakhstan-related issues were discussed behind Cheney's closed doors. In an analysis of the final report of the vice president's energy task force, released in May 2001, The Washington Times, on July 20, 2001, wrote, `While saying private investors must lead the way, the Cheney report devotes considerable time to the Kazakh market, urging U.S. government agencies to "deepen their commercial dialogue" with Kazakhstan.'
So what does this all have to do with the oil question?
On 1/16/03 the Wall Street Journal reported that officials from the White House, State Department, and Department of Defense have been meeting informally with executives from Halliburton, Schlumberger, ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and ConocoPhillips to plan the post-war expansion of oil production from Iraq (whose oilfields were largely held by US companies prior to their nationalization).'

The Administration denied this story, consistent with their repeated claim, voiced by Defense Minister Rumsfeld on 11/14/02, that Iraq "has nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil."

If this were true, we might expect to see ExxonMobil indicted promptly. After all, the grand jury has found the passage of its money to be indictable. It is not disputed that Mobil supplied the funds, nor, as Seymour Hersh reported in the (New Yorker, July 9, 2001), that Mobil officers knew that the money was being spent on corruption.

"A Mobil employee who took part in [Mobil's negotiations with Kazakhstan] in Nassau said that the Kazakhs made a series of extraordinary demands, seeking among other things, a new Gulfstream jet aircraft for Nazarbayev, funds for tennis courts at his home, and four trucks with Satellite dishes to be used by his daughter's televisions network."

That would seem to add up to a pretty open-and-shut case.

Alternatively, if the Bush Administration has already planned for ExxonMobil and other US oil firms to re-install themselves in Iraq's nationalized oil fields, we may see once again the interests of justice subordinated to dollar politics. Or, in simpler words, no indictment.


posted by Steven Baum 4/10/2003 10:41:46 AM | link

Wednesday, April 09, 2003

FIGURE IT OUT
An
Iraq War Casualties site tells us that, as of today:
U.S. War Deaths Total, DoD confirmed (85) (KIA - 64, details pending - 4, Accidents - 14, Murder - 2, Illness - 1)
for a conflict that's now in its fourth week, with heavy fighting amongst ground forces over much of Iraq.

The official numbers from the 1991 Gulf War are:

US casualties were low. Despite a pre-war prediction by the Center for Defense Information of 10 000 dead and 35 000 wounded, the total was 148 combat dead and 467 wounded. Of those, 35 deaths and 72 injuries were from 'friendly fire'.
or, alternatively,
The United States suffered 148 killed in action, 458 wounded, 121 killed in nonhostile actions and 11 female combat deaths.
for a conflict whose length was measured in hours:
After a 38-day air campaign, the DESERT SABRE ground offensive began with allied forces sweeping through Iraqi defenses. The Iraqi army was crushed after a mere 100 hours.
According to the Cabal, only a little over half as many troops have died in nearly 4 weeks of heavy fighting in Iraq than did in 4 days in 1991.
posted by Steven Baum 4/9/2003 10:45:59 AM | link

THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE FREE
The
Third Reich Roundtable reproduces an interesting piece by Milton Mayer entitled They Thought They Were Free.
...
What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if he people could understand it, it could not be released because of national security. And their sense of identification with Hitler, their trust in him, made it easier to widen this gap and reassured those who would otherwise have worried about it.

"This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.
...
"Those," I said, "are the words of my friend the baker. "One had no time to think. There was so much going on." "Your friend the baker was right," said my colleague. "The dictatorship, and the whole process of its coming into being, was above all diverting. It provided an excuse not to think for people who did not want to think anyway. I do not speak of your "little men", your baker and so on; I speak of my colleagues and myself, learned men, mind you. Most of us did not want to think about fundamental things and never had. There was no need to. Nazism gave us some dreadful, fundamental things to think about - we were decent people - and kept us so busy with continuous changes and "crises" and so fascinated, yes, fascinated, by the machinations of the "national enemies", without and within, that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us. Unconsciously, I suppose, we were grateful. Who wants to think?

"To live in this process is absolutely not to be able to notice it - please try to believe me - unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us had ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, "regretted," that, unless one were detached from the whole process from the beginning, unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these "little measures" that no "patriotic German" could resent must some day lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head.

"How is this to be avoided, among ordinary men, even highly educated ordinary men? Frankly, I do not know. I do not see, even now. Many, many times since it all happened I have pondered that pair of great maxims, Principiis obsta and Finem respice - "Resist the beginnings" and "consider the end." But one must foresee the end in order to resist, or even see, the beginnings. One must foresee the end clearly and certainly and how is this to be done, by ordinary men or even by extraordinary men? Things might have changed here before they went as far as they did; they didn't, but they might have. And everyone counts on that might.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/9/2003 10:31:55 AM | link

DEMOCRACY TRIUMPHS
The
Financial Times (via Cursor) reports how U.S.-backed democracy is already taking Iraq by storm. Look for the Cabal "explanation" - if any - to sound something like "you can't expect there to not be any repercussions against those who supported Saddam Hussein."
Hay Al Ansar, on the outskirts of Najaf in Iraq, was glad to be rid of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath party government, when the city was seized by US forces last week.

But they appear to be just as terrified, if not more so, of their new rulers -a little-known Iraqi militia backed by the US special forces and headquartered in a compound nearby.

The Iraqi Coalition of National Unity (ICNU), which appeared in the city last week riding on US special forces vehicles, has taken to looting and terrorising their neighbourhood with impunity, according to most residents.

"They steal and steal," said a man living near the Medresa al Tayif school, calling himself Abu Zeinab. "They threaten us, saying: 'We are with the Americans, you can do nothing to us'."

Sa'ida al Hamed, another resident, said she witnessed looting by the ICNU and other armed gangs in the city, which lost its police force when the government fled last week. One man told a US army translator on Monday that he was taken out of his house and beaten by ICNU forces when he refused to give them his car. They took it anyway.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/9/2003 10:09:52 AM | link

Tuesday, April 08, 2003

LIGHTS, ACTION, PROPAGANDA!
The
Chicago Tribune enlightens us as to the role being played by the Office of Global Communications, an agency created by the Cabal for spewing sexy propaganda.
WASHINGTON -- The Office of Global Communications, a controversial agency created by President Bush in January, has blossomed into a huge production company, issuing daily scripts on the Iraq war to U.S. spokesmen around the world, auditioning generals to give media briefings and booking administration stars on foreign news shows.

The office--a sort of global public-relations firm for the Bush administration and the U.S. war effort--tightly coordinates the message of the Pentagon, the State Department and the military command in the Persian Gulf, ensuring that any war commentary by a U.S. official is approved in advance by the White House.

Critics are questioning the veracity of some of the stories being circulated by the office and deriding it as a propaganda arm of the White House. But administration officials insist the office does not deal in disinformation and they say it serves a crucial purpose.

"We must do everything we can to help communicate the ideals and the policies of our country," said White House Communications Director Dan Bartlett. "In some countries we haven't paid as much attention, or spent enough time, doing that."

The communications office helps devise and coordinate each day's talking points on the war. Civilian and military personnel, for example, are told to refer to the invasion of Iraq as a "war of liberation." Iraqi paramilitary forces are to be called "death squads."

The effects of that discipline are evident almost daily. When questions arose recently about whether the United States could find Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, U.S. spokesmen and spokeswomen--from the White House to the Pentagon to the Central Command in Qatar--simultaneously insisted that the war was "not about one man."
...

It just makes me want to put a dozen flags on my truck (so it'll patriotically burn even more gasoline) to learn that Chinese journalists are turning green with envy at the propaganda being churned out by the good ol' USofA.
The central problem was underscored for me by a Chinese journalist who sat next to me during a U.S. military briefing here in Doha.

"This is propaganda," he said brightly. "I was born and grew up in a propaganda country, and so I know it well." He beamed. "Actually, they do the propaganda very well, better than we do it. We in China can learn from this propaganda."


posted by Steven Baum 4/8/2003 10:47:44 PM | link

MORE FERC FOLLIES
The FERC apparently isn't too busy covering up for Enron to
assure Wall Street analysts that it will do little or nothing to recover the $20-30 billion Enron and others basically stole from Californians by manipulating the oil and natural gas markets. The FERC hacks even told the Wall Street hacks how they were going to vote on an upcoming issue, a violation of FERC rules. But, as we've found out ad infinitum by now, the Cabal considers rules and laws as annoying things proles, er, other people have to follow or go to jail for a good long time.
Two weeks ago, after the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a staff report to Congress that said California's electricity and natural gas markets were the victim of widespread manipulation by more than a dozen energy companies, the chairman of FERC and one of the agency's commissioners took the unusual step of holding a private conference call with Wall Street analysts to calm jittery investors who feared the report would send energy company stocks plummeting.

One of the items that came up for discussion during the conference call was whether FERC would decide if California's $20 billion in long-term electricity contracts should be abrogated because, according to California state officials, the deals were signed during the height of the energy crisis when manipulation in the state was rampant.

FERC Commissioner Nora Brownell indicated during the public meeting hours earlier that she would likely not support California's argument that the contracts be voided because it would scare away investors or discourage companies from signing similar deals in the future.

"Investors simply will not participate in a market in which disgruntled buyers are allowed to break their contracts, at least not without charging a significant risk premium ... a cost that is ultimately borne by customers," Brownell said during the public meeting last week.

Still, Brownell and FERC Chairman Pat Wood said the thorny issue of what to do about the long-term contracts was still being discussed by the commission privately and that the commission would make a final decision over the next few weeks.

But, in what appears to be a violation of FERC's own federal rules, Brownell told the Wall Street analysts on the conference call after the meeting exactly how she and Wood would vote on the issue when it comes up for a vote at a FERC meeting in mid-April.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/8/2003 08:34:12 PM | link

THE CABAL PROTECTS ITS OWN
We learn from
Reuters that the Cabal-controlled FERC has agreed to "temporarily" remove documents about Enron from its web site. And it gets better. Not only are documents being removed, but the specific nature of the removed documents is being hidden from the public.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Monday agreed to remove temporarily from its Web site Enron Corp. e-mails after the company complained the documents could hurt creditors in the company's separate bankruptcy proceeding.

The FERC took the action shortly after Enron said it also asked a federal court of appeals to intervene.

"The commission hereby gives notice that it will remove temporarily, until April 24, 2003, Enron e-mails from the agency's Web site," the FERC said in a brief notice.

"During that time, the commission will consider any requests that certain personal information or information with security implications be permanently removed from public accessibility," the FERC said.

Neither the FERC nor Enron publicly identified the specific information the company wanted pulled off the agency's Web site.

Tens of thousands of documents about Enron and other power sellers during the California energy crisis were released and posted on the FERC's Web site late last month. The material was collected by the agency during its year-long investigation of alleged electricity and natural gas price-gouging during the 2000-01 energy crisis.

The FERC announced in early March its intention to make the documents public and gave companies one week to explain why any specific documents should remain secret.

Enron said it did not object then to the release of any material because the company believed information would be made public only through Freedom of Information Act requests, or by placing a hard copy in the FERC's public reading room.

"Enron did not anticipate that all of the data would be instantly available to anyone who had a computer," the company told the FERC in a filing on Friday.

Throughout the 17-page filing, the specific information that Enron wants removed from the Web site was blacked out.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/8/2003 08:18:11 PM | link

KENNAN AT 98
Having just started dipping into a paperback version of his
Memoirs: 1925-1950, it's interesting to find an interview with 98-year-old George Kennan, who's seen more than most.
"Anyone who has ever studied the history of American diplomacy, especially military diplomacy, knows that you might start in a war with certain things on your mind as a purpose of what you are doing, but in the end, you found yourself fighting for entirely different things that you had never thought of before," he said. "In other words, war has a momentum of its own and it carries you away from all thoughtful intentions when you get into it. Today, if we went into Iraq, like the president would like us to do, you know where you begin. You never know where you are going to end."

Kennan is the author of the history-making 1947 essay in Foreign Affairs, which he signed as "X" and enunciated the policy of containment that helped define American foreign policy after World War II. In the interview, he also:

  • Characterized the new national security document issued by the Bush administration last week as "a great mistake in principle";
  • Voicing the same view that Vice President Albert Gore would take a day later, he warned that launching an attack on Iraq would amount to waging a second war that "bears no relation to the first war against terrorism";
  • Declared that efforts by the White House and Republicans in Congress to link al Qaeda terrorists with Saddam Hussein "have been pathetically unsupportive and unreliable";
  • Said Bush "shouldn't speak contemptuously" of the inspection teams that previously worked in Iraq, "because they succeeded in destroying and removing from Iraq very, very sizeable quantities of dangerous arms";
  • Called the failure of Democratic congressional leaders and the party’s would-be presidential candidates to question Bush's war plans as "a shabby and shameful reaction";
  • Insisted that there is no evidence that Iraq has succeeded in developing nuclear weaponry, and even if they had, it would be targeted on Israel and not the United States;
  • Said the Israelis almost certainly possess nuclear weapons, and would be "quite capable of mounting a devastating retaliatory strike" if Iraq ever uses weapons of mass destruction against Israel;
  • Praised the diplomatic skills of Secretary of State Colin Powell, whom he called a "man of strong loyalties in a difficult position [who] has been much more powerful in his statements than" Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld; and
  • Cautioned that the United States, even as the world's sole superpower, cannot "confront all the painful and dangerous situations that exist in this world. ... That's beyond our capabilities."
Kennan is almost certainly immediately dismissed by neocons and their acolytes, who've probably never forgiven him for advising a policy of containment rather than of immediate attack and conquest vis a vis the Soviet Union back in the late 1940s. Mebbe some more on Kennan later.
posted by Steven Baum 4/8/2003 11:13:03 AM | link

ANOTHER MORAL AVATAR IN THE BUSH CLAN
Neil Bush is taking time out of this busy schedule of "trying" to sell educational software to daddy's friends to ditch his wife, with another trophy "waiting in the wings".
Neil Bush and his wife, Sharon, are headed to divorce court, and a source says their lawyers are frantically working for a last-minute settlement.

The president's brother is splitting from his wife of 23 years - there have been published reports that he has a replacement waiting in the wings - and a trial date has been set for mid-April in a Houston court, says a source familiar with the case.

"This thing could get really ugly," says the insider."We’re hoping that it will all get settled out of court. The last thing we want now is for the Bush family to be airing its dirty laundry."

The couple are the parents of model Lauren Bush.

"Of course," adds the insider, "in the current political climate, maybe no one will touch the story because they don’t want to be accused of being unpatriotic."

I especially like that last bit about how the shitweasel's not going to be called a shitweasel because it wouldn't be patriotic. Well, call me treasonous because I say Neil (and the rest of them) are shitweasels.
posted by Steven Baum 4/8/2003 01:01:05 AM |
link

BAER ON THE HOUSE OF SAUD
Robert Baer - author of
See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism and the upcoming Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Its Soul for Saudi Crude (the latter from which the article is excerpted) - has an article entitled "The Fall of the House of Saud" in the May 2003 "Atlantic Monthly". His summary paints a grim picture:
Washington's answer for Saudi Arabia - apart from repeating that nothing is wrong - is to suggest that a little democracy willl cure everything. Talk the royal family into ceding at least part of its authority; support the reform-minded princes; set up a model parliament; co-opt the firebrands with a cabinet position or two, a minor political party, and some outright bribery; send Jimmy Carter in to monitor the first election; and in a few generations Riyadh will be Ankara, maybe even London. The governmental mechanism may be faulty, the Washington view maintains, but the people who administer the government are for the most part committed to rooting out corruption, rounding up terrorists, and recognizing the right of the people to self-government.

It's utter nonsense, of course. If an election were held in Saudi Arabia today, if anyone who wanted to could run for the office of president, and if people could vote their hearts without fear of having their heads cut off afterward in Chop-Chop Square, Osama bin Laden would be elected in a landslide - not because the Saudi people want to wash their hands in the blood of the dead of September 11, but simply because bin Laden has dared to do what even the mighty United States won't do: stand up to the thieves who run the country.
...
The fact is that the West, especially the United States, has left the Saudis little choice. Leading U.S. corporations hire and rehire known Saudi crooks and known financiers of terrorism to represent their interests, so that they can land the deals that will pay the commissions back in Saudi Arabia - commissions that will further erode the budget and thus further erode the ruling class from everyone else. Former CIA directors serve on boards whose members have to hold their noses to cut deals with Saudi companies - because that's business, that's the price of entry, that's the way it's done. Ex-Presidents, former prime ministers, onetime senators and congressmen, and cabinet members walk around with their hands out, acting as if they're doing something else but rarely slowing down, because most of them know its an endgame too. But sometime soon, one way or another, the House of Saud is coming down.

Baer writes of many things, including about Prince Bandar, someone "well connected on both sides who can move comfortably between them." Bandar is basically the Saudi bagman who greases all the right palms in western power circles, a task he's performed since 1983. A telling sign of his importance is that he's the only foreign ambassador to the U.S. with a security detail assigned by the State Department. A sign of his power is that he actually out-lobbied AIPAC in 1981 by persuading Congress and the White House to sell AWACS air-defense technology to the Saudis.

Given the money he represents, it shouldn't come as a shock that Bandar's not unknown to the Bush Boys, if only in a vague, "Kenny-Boy" sort of way.

A visit in the early nineties to the summer home of George H. W. Bush, in Kennebunkport, Maine, earned the prince the affectionate family sobriquet "Bandar Bush". Bandar reciprocated by inviting Bush to hunt pheasant on his estate in England. For good measure he also contributed a million dollars to the construction of the Bush Presidential Library; in College Station, Texas. ... Bandar was once Colin Powell's racquetball partner.
When things got a bit rough after 9/11, with various Saudi-based charities being raided by the Treasury Department and the leakage by Richard Perle's Defense Policy Board of a report bashing the Saudis for being a part of the terrorism problem rather than the solution, Bandara got a reassuring phone call from Colin Powell and an invite to the family ranch in Crawford, Texas. The Bush Clan and the prince somehow remain close, despite the latter finding...
...himself having to explain away the fact that about $130,000 in charitable contributions from his wife, Princess Haifa, might have ended up with two of the 9/11 hijackers.
Now that's a "link", "connection", etc. of the sort that's already put more than a few folks in - as Ashcroft's "justice" department so quaintly puts it - "indefinite administrative detention". Or to put it another way, it's a hell of a lot stronger and more tangible a "link" to 9/11 than the supposed "Iraqi-Al Qaeda connection" used to justify spilling the blood of thousands and the expediture of hundreds of billions.

Baer gets the last word:

Saudi Arabia today is a mess, and it is our mess. We made it the private storage tank for our oil reserves. We reaped the benefits of a steady petroleum supply at a discounted price, and we grabbed at every available Saudi petrodollar. We taught the Saudis exactly what was expected of them. We cannot walk away morally from the consequences of this behavior - and we really can't walk way economically. So we crow about democracy and talk about someday weaning ourselves from our dependence on foreign oil, despite the fact that as long as American has been dependent on foreign oil there has never been an honest, sustained effort at the senior governmental level to reduce long-term U.S. petroleum consumption.

posted by Steven Baum 4/8/2003 12:01:47 AM | link

Monday, April 07, 2003

A LENGTHY "STABILIZATION" PERIOD
Maher Chmaytelli's Middle East Online piece tells us why we aren't going to be seeing any real democracy in Iraq any time soon, but rather a lengthy "stabilization" period wherein foreign, i.e. U.S., oil companies will be "forced" to "temporarily" take over the oil industry until the populace is sufficiently "re-educated" to invite them to do so permanently.
...
But Abi Aad said that a democratically-elected government in Iraq might not necessarily play the oil game as sought by US and British majors.

"See Kuwait: the United States liberated it 12 years ago and it hasn't yet opened up upstream oil to foreign companies. See Venezuela: democracy did not bring in a friend of Washington," he said.

He also mentioned the nationalist sentiment that prevails in the oil sector of Iraq which "prides itself with being the first country to have nationalised its petroleum wealth," in 1972.

The OPEC oil cartel, occasionally the nightmare of oil-consuming nations, was created in Baghdad in 1960, eight years before Saddam's pan-Arab Baath party came to power.


posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 03:42:53 PM | link

WI-FI AND BEER
My favorite local watering hole - Duddley's Draw, into which I first stepped (and out of which I first staggered) the day after I first arrived here nearly 20 years ago - has installed free wi-fi. If I had (or had a need for) the hardware I'd surely use it, but for now I'll be more than content availing myself of their other fine products, including the wonderful ambiance of the front porch for post-ultimate frisbee "discussion group" sessions.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 03:20:35 PM |
link

GFY
Cheek links to an eclectic, interesting, and not terribly conciliatory metasite called Generation Fuck You!, which proudly proclaims "celebrating 5 years of FUCKING THE SYSTEM!!!".
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 03:09:59 PM | link

ANOTHER SMOKING GUN VANISHES
An
AFP item tells us about the latest smoking gun vanishing in a puff of smoke.
NEAR NAJAF, Iraq (AFP) - A facility near Baghdad that a US officer had claimed might finally be "smoking gun" evidence of Iraqi chemical weapons production turned out to contain pesticide, not sarin gas as originally thought.

A military intelligence officer for the US 101st Airborne Division's aviation brigade, Captain Adam Mastrianni, told AFP that comprehensive tests Monday determined the presence of the pesticide compounds.

Initial tests had reportedly detected traces of sarin -- a powerful toxin that quickly affects the nervous system -- after US soldiers guarding the facility near Hindiyah, 100 kilometres (60 miles) south of Baghdad, became ill.

Mastrianni said: "They thought it was a nerve agent. That's what it tested. But it is pesticide."

He said a "theatre-level chemical testing team" made up of biologists and chemists had disproved the preliminary field tests results and established that pesticide was in fact the substance involved.

Mastrianni added that the dozen sick soldiers, who had become nauseated, dizzy and developed skin blotches, had all recovered.

The belated correction was an embarrassment for the US forces in the region, who had been quick to say that they thought they had finally found the proof they have been actively looking for, that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction.
...

I look forward to hearing Ari and Rumsy denounce the Evilest Regime in the History of the Universe for placing invaders in grave danger (oh yes, and the non-evil Iraqis, too) via exposure to toxic pesticides. You'd think they'd wait until the actual facts were in before howling about how they've finally found their justification for invading. It's not like the media is forcing these officers to be using phrases like "smoking gun", or perhaps the Stockholm Syndrome is working both ways, i.e. the military's feeling sorry for promising so much to their embeds and delivering so little (beyond big colorful films of explosions) that they're tossing them biscuit shards before the Alpo has been delivered. If this keeps up much longer (about 40 years by my reckoning) the capacity for logical thought may return to the embeds as their hunger finally overwhelms their desire to fetch the stick ad infinitum.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 02:36:50 PM | link

A PROFITABLE READ
Kurt Richebacher expounds on why the long-term stock market trend is downwards and will remain so. And what evil commie reasoning does he use to arrive at this conclusion? The profits are disappearing.
...
Realizing that the traditional process of profit creation through capital formation was much too tedious to satisfy the new, grossly inflated profit expectations in the market, corporations switched massively to new strategies that seemed to promise much quicker and higher returns. Thus, mergers, acquisitions, restructuring, downsizing, outsourcing, cost-cutting, stock buybacks and creative accounting became the main characteristics of the corporate strategies to expand.

While the consensus has been trumpeting a profit miracle, we have been protesting for years that this is impossible. What led us to this opposite conclusion were simple, compelling macroeconomic considerations. They say that there is ultimately but one single way for businesses to increase their profits in the aggregate, and that is by mutually increasing their revenues through higher investment spending. With this rule in mind, we realized that all those new corporate strategies meant to boost profit creation when taken together could only have the opposite effect of depressing profits.

In fact, at the height of the boom, executives and firms faced sharply falling profits, while the prices of their shares, reflecting the inflated profit expectations, were soaring. Most importantly, Mr. Greenspan eagerly supported the stock market boom not only with absurdly euphoric statements, but also with record-high money and credit creation.

Confronted with tremendous pressure from the markets to meet the grossly inflated profit expectations, the great corporate account rigging developed for a straightforward reason. It was the need and desire to cover up the increasingly desperate corporate profits picture, contrasting dramatically with the former high-riding promises. Manifestly, the unfolding epidemic of accounting frauds is not just bearing witness to an unprecedented high level of greed. The far more important aspect is its deeper cause: the horrible reality of Corporate America's worst profit performance in the whole post-war period.

Measured as a share of GDP, profits today are at their lowest level in the whole post-war period. During the last year of the boom, in 2000, before-tax profits of nonfinancial firms were equivalent to 4.3% of GDP. That was down from 6% of GDP in 1997. This plunge of profits has to be seen against the backdrop of 18% GDP growth during this period.

More recently, profits are down further to 3% of GDP. What has hammered the stock market is plainly not a lack of confidence but collapsing profits.


posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 02:30:27 PM | link

WHOSE VX?
What Really Happened digs up an interesting AFP article from 1999. You know, back before our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity ended. It seems that UNSCOM took VX and possibly other "WOMD" into Iraq.
BAGHDAD, July 28 (AFP) - A team of international experts wound up a mission here Wednesday by destroying vials of lethal VX nerve gas as Iraq charged the samples were only eliminated to clear UN arms inspectors of fraud accusations.

After several days of wrangling, the UN Security Council agreed Tuesday to destroy the VX abandoned in Baghdad by the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) in charge of disarming Iraq.

The independent experts from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in The Hague left the Iraqi capital after an overnight operation to destroy vials containing the VX samples, a UN official said.

A diplomatic source told AFP that diplomats from China, France and Russia observed the operation which lasted several hours, as during their previous work over a two-week mission.

The UN decision came after Russia finally dropped its demand for an analysis of the vials discovered last week in the monitoring centre evacuated by UNSCOM.

US and British diplomats had opposed the Russian demand, considering it an effort to discredit UNSCOM.

Iraq's Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan argued that "the United States would have asked for the analysis to go ahead" if UNSCOM was innocent. "Its refusal ... has a clear significance," he said.

Asked if UNSCOM used the samples to incriminate Iraq, Ramadan told reporters that "it cannot be anything else."

The Iraqi arms panel set up to liaise with UNSCOM, meanwhile, said the decision to destroy the seven VX vials, at the insistence of Washington and London, was taken "to eliminate the proof" against the Special Commission.

Baghdad, supported by Moscow, suspects UNSCOM inspectors of having framed Iraq by contaminating Iraqi missiles warheads with VX, the deadliest nerve agent in the world.

But UNSCOM denies having tampered with missile warheads and insists that the diluted VX found in three opened vials was used exclusively to test against Iraqi chemicals.

Iraq, which is under UN sanctions linked to its disarmament, denies ever having weaponised VX, despite laboratory analyses on missile fragments which showed up traces of the nerve gas.

US laboratory tests proved damning for Iraq, while a similar test in a French laboratory was inconclusive and the results of a Swiss examination were not divulged.

The independent experts were brought in to close down UNSCOM's chemical and biological lab in Baghdad, following the inspectors' evacuation in December on the eve of a US-British air war on Iraq.

The five-member OPCW team also destroyed other toxic substances, including mustard gas.

The Security Council is now seeking an explanation from the Special Commission on the presence of the VX vials and what they were used for, diplomats in New York said.

Acting UNCOM chief Charles Duelfer told the council it would take between two and three weeks to provide the explanations and that the chemists who worked in the lab would have to be contacted.

Laboratory log books were not kept, he said.

Iraq's ruling Baath party, meanwhile, charged that the United States blocked the analysis sought by Russia because of its "fear that the truth would be unmasked."

Washington exploited UNSCOM ever since it was set up in 1991 "to spy, to threaten Iraqi sovereignty ... fabricate accusations, stir crises, prolong the embargo and launch military strikes," charged the party's daily, Ath-Thawra.

A more recent Washington Post article (3/29/03) tells us what Duelfer is up to these days, although it doesn't tell us what happened after the "two and three weeks to provide the explanations" passed back in 1999.
...
To locate and identify the forbidden weapons, the Pentagon has recruited four or five of the most experienced U.N. inspectors to resign from UNMOVIC. They will take unspecified roles in Kuwait at the Weapons of Mass Destruction Intelligence Exploitation Base under Army Maj. Gen. James A. Marks.

The recruits must sign waivers acknowledging the perils of a war zone and must hold or obtain a security clearance recognized under U.S. intelligence-sharing agreements. In practice that will limit the inspectors to those from closely allied governments including Britain, Australia and perhaps Canada.

Charles Duelfer, the first and most senior of the recruits, told a former colleague by e-mail last week that he had joined the weapons search, and hoped others would too, because the government had few experts with personal knowledge of Iraqi weaponeers and their records. He did not reply to a request for comment.
...

That is, Duelfer et al. are going to be working for the same military that told us that an entire division of 5000 Iraqi troops surrendered one day, and then a few days later that only a few dozen had really surrendered. Whether they were lying or really can't tell the difference between 5000 and a few dozen, my confidence level isn't terribly elevated vis a vis future pronouncements.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 01:55:13 PM | link

"DIVINE AUTHORITY"
Orcinus on Antonin "Big Tony" Scalia and other religious zealots.
...
In light of the 2000 election, it is clear that this is how Scalia justified a ruling that, conceptually speaking, ran counter to virtually every position he had ever taken, particularly with regard to both states' rights and 14th Amendment equal-protections provisions. For him, it was more an exercise of the raw power he held by virtue of holding a seat on the Supreme Court, all in the pursuit of seating the person whom Scalia believed to have been chosen by God.

This bodes extremely ill for the 2004 election. Should a Democrat threaten to win, it is clear that the gang currently in power sees itself as divinely empowered, and seems likely to seek a way to justify any means, even extra-constitutional ones (as it did in 2000), to hold onto that. This would include unleashing the thuggery of the extreme right on the rest of the populace.
...

That is, if the election is even held. After all, we can't let democracy get in the way of protecting democracy in wartime.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 11:31:57 AM | link

DEATH MERCHANTS TO MEET IN LISBON
According to a Portuguese report (via
Common Dreams), our favorite shadow government is heading of to Lisbon in a few weeks.
Directors of one of the world's largest armament companies are planning on meeting in Lisbon in three weeks time. The American based Carlyle Group is heavily involved in supplying arms to the Coalition forces fighting in the Iraqi war.

It also holds a majority of shares in the Seven Up company and Federal Data Corporation, supplier of air traffic control surveillance systems to the US Federal Aviation Authority. The 12 billion dollar company has recently signed contracts with United Defense Industries to equip the Turkish and Saudi Arabian armies with aviation Defense systems.

Top of the meeting's agenda is expected to be the company's involvement in the rebuilding of Baghdad's infrastructure after the cessation of current hostilities. Along with several other US companies, the Carlyle Group is expected to be awarded a billion dollar contract by the US Government to help in the redevelopment of airfields and urban areas destroyed by Coalition aerial bombardments.
...
The Portugal News has been told by a reliable source that the Carlyle Group meeting in Lisbon will discuss the relationship between the Saudi Binladen Corporation (SBC) and Osama bin Laden. Many US officials claim that the SBC continues to finance his political activities, and has done so for many years. If true, this would place George Bush senior and his colleagues at the Carlyle Group in an embarrassing position. As managers of SBC's financial investments they might well be accused of indirectly aiding and abetting the United States' number one enemy.

That is, it would place Bush the Elder, Bush the Younger and the whole Cabalist crowd in at least an embarassing position if the "liberal" media wasn't embedded so deeply in the usual places.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 10:53:38 AM | link

ANOTHER PRETEXT COMING
Justin Podur describes how Colombia - whose government and military and paramilitary forces are little more than employees of Otto Reich and the Cabal - are attempting to provide their employers with a pretext for invading Venezuela.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced on Venezuelan radio on March 31 that: "A short while ago, I ordered an air force operation and we bombed an area where we detected the presence of a group" of Colombian irregular forces along the border. The Colombian 'irregulars' had attacked a Venezuelan military post, after which Chavez ordered the raid last Thursday. Chavez stressed that Caracas would not tolerate Colombian armed groups entering Venezuela. "Neither paramilitaries nor rebels nor the armed forces of Colombia have authorization, nor will they have it, to be on Venezuelan territory," he said.

Colombian analysts have stressed for years that Colombia's armed conflict would be used as a pretext to militarize the region, targeting Venezuela in particular.
...
The next attempt at an 'incident' came at the 'regional security summit' in Bogota, in mid-March 2003. There, the Colombian government (with its US patron behind) pointed fingers at every single neighbouring country. Panama was blamed for being a route by which arms and people are transported. Ecuador came in for criticism as a drug trafficking route. Brazil was asked to send troops to Colombia for a 'multilateral force against terrorism'. Remember that in January 2003, Uribe asked for a US intervention in the country.

And, of course, singled out for special criticism was-Venezuela. The claim was made that Venezuela is training and supporting Colombia's guerrillas, the FARC. Since the FARC is already on the US State Department's list of 'terrorist organizations', a deft combination of Bush doctrine (of overthrowing states accused of supporting 'terrorism') and the Rumsfeld doctrine ('the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence') is enough to justify an intervention against Venezuela.

The entire conference was an exercise in the inversion of reality. It was Colombia's army-backed paramilitaries who crossed the border into Panama in January 2003 to murder 4 indigenous leaders-the mayors and commissioner of the Kuna Paya village, who were shot and hacked with machetes. And it is the Colombian army that is engaging in 'cross-border terrorism', attacking Venezuela, testing its defenses and looking for the 'spectacular incident' that could stop Venezuela's social movement and send that country into the kind of spiral of violence that Colombia has been living since perhaps 1948.
...
The problem is that Colombia need not 'win' against Venezuela. It only needs to provoke the kind of 'incident' that could spark a war or an intervention. If this is the second front of the third world war, the war aim here is also 'regime change': the destruction of Venezuela's democratic process. And the instrument, for now, is the Colombian government.


posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 10:48:03 AM | link

CANCEL THE ELECTION!
Rich Procter brings up something we hope ends up in the "predictions that don't pan out" department, although given that by then the majority of the citizenry will probably "think" that Yassir Arafat, Moamar Khaddafy, Assad and Kim Il-sung piloted the planes on 9/11.
...
Catch that last line? Kerry..."DARED SUGGEST THE REPLACEMENT OF AMERICA'S COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF AT A TIME WHEN AMERICA IS AT WAR." Do you have any doubt whatsoever that next November we'll still "be at war" with a huge occupying force in Iraq? Rumsfeld is already trying to whack the Syria/Iran hornet's nest, so we may be there too (another story-line Rove & Company are developing). North Korea? Why not?

Get ready for the wingnut Screech Monkeys to put this in play, and play it for all its worth - "We're at war! God has chosen our President to lead us! To question him is to question America itself! To suggest replacing him is treason! To mount a political campaign against him is beyond the pale! These elections must be...(wait for it...wait for it...) "postponed indefinitely!!"

If you think this is crazy, did you honestly thing the Bushies could commit the United States to a war in the Middle East in a year, using nothing but colossal nerve, mind-boggling cynicism, and a story line built out of wingnut wish dreams and media hot air?
...

I do indeed think this is crazy. I also think we're living in very crazy times.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 10:20:44 AM | link

PROPAGANDA OF THE DAY
Pauline Jelinek writes of further "confusion" emanating from the organization that had a tricky time distinguishing 20 captured Iraqis from 5000 captured Iraqis. Incompetence or disinformation? We report, you decide.
The Pentagon on Friday defended the use of some civilian clothes by U.S. special operations forces, a tactic used to help them blend in with the local population.

Alleging war crimes, Bush administration officials complained bitterly last week that Iraqi paramilitary forces dressed as civilians, faked surrenders and used other battlefield ruses to kill American soldiers.

Asked at a Pentagon press conference why it is OK for American commando troops to take off their uniforms, but a crime when the Iraqis did it, Defense Department spokeswoman Victoria Clarke said she thought American forces wear something that distinguishes them from civilians, but deferred the question for a later answer.
...

Yes, they're wearing special underwear that identifies them as combatants to the evil Iraqis, who evilly wear civilian skivvies as they nefariously fight those who invaded them.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 09:41:27 AM | link

TAKE THE TOUR
BuzzFlash links to the Washington Corporate War Tour of Citizen Works.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 09:22:14 AM | link

PROPAGANDA REMIX
The
Propaganda Remix Project (via wood s lot). Art for sanity's sake.
posted by Steven Baum 4/7/2003 09:15:54 AM | link


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