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Observations (and occasional brash opining) on science, computers, books, music and other shiny things that catch my mind's eye. There's a home page with ostensibly more permanent stuff. This is intended to be more functional than decorative. I neither intend nor want to surf on the bleeding edge, keep it real, redefine journalism or attract nyphomaniacal groupies (well, maybe a wee bit of the latter). The occasional cheap laugh, raised eyebrow or provocation of interest are all I'll plead guilty to in the matter of intent. Bene qui latuit bene vixit.

The usual copyright stuff applies, but I probably won't get enraged until I find a clone site with absolutely no attribution (which, by the way, has happened twice with some of my other stuff). Finally, if anyone's offended by anything on this site then please do notify me immediately. I like to keep track of those times when I get something right.

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Saturday, April 05, 2003

RUMSY THE POET
Hart Seely finds the poetry in Donald Rumsfeld's official pronouncements.
The Unknown

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.

The Situation

Things will not be necessarily continuous.
The fact that they are something other than perfectly continuous
Ought not to be characterized as a pause.
There will be some things that people will see.
There will be some things that people won't see.
And life goes on.

A translation guide is available for the perplexed.
posted by Steven Baum 4/5/2003 11:02:51 AM | link

PLIGHT OF THE GENERALS
Michael Klare - whose
Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict is mandatory reading (there'll be a quiz on Tuesday) - writes of dissatisfaction amongst the non-chickenhawks.
At no point in modern American history has the civilian leadership of the nation's military establishment come under as much criticism from serving military officers as is the case now regarding the war in Iraq. The now famous comment by Lieut. Gen. William Wallace that "the enemy we're fighting is a bit different from the one we'd war-gamed against"--implying heavier-than-expected resistance--is but the tip of the iceberg of widespread discontent among senior officers over the design and implementation of the Administration's invasion plan.
...
As loyal military professionals, the dissident generals will not express their deep concerns in public and will only speak openly of their unease with certain technical aspects of the plan. But it is possible to read between the lines to see the profound disquiet that animates these objections. To say that the enemy in Iraq is not the one "we'd war-gamed against" is to say that the war games themselves were not an accurate representation of the situation in Iraq, and that the games' designers--the senior leaders at the Pentagon--were blinded by their prowar zealotry from appreciating the vigor of Iraqi defenses. Put another way, this means that the civilian leadership was prepared to risk the lives of American fighting men and women in pursuit of an extremist ideology. By questioning the logic of the Administration plan, therefore, these officers are fulfilling their highest responsibility to the troops under their command and so deserve the support of the American people; the architects of that plan, however, deserve nothing but revulsion.

posted by Steven Baum 4/5/2003 09:51:18 AM | link

"PATRIOT" II
Matt Welch (via
Maxspeak) takes time off from war cheerleading and excoriating the evil left to discover the reality behind one thing they're being evilly leftist about. He investigates the PATRIOT II Act, and instead of parroting the standard right wingnut party line about how we're at war and it ain't so bad etc., identifies some of its more "draconian provisions".
  • Americans could have their citizenship revoked, if found to have contributed "material support" to organizations deemed by the government, even retroactively, to be "terrorist." As Hentoff wrote in the Feb. 28 Village Voice: "Until now, in our law, an American could only lose his or her citizenship by declaring a clear intent to abandon it. But - and read this carefully from the new bill - 'the intent to relinquish nationality need not be manifested in words, but can be inferred from conduct.'" (Italics Hentoff's.)
  • Legal permanent residents (like, say, my French wife), could be deported instantaneously, without a criminal charge or even evidence, if the Attorney General considers them a threat to national security. If they commit minor, non-terrorist offenses, they can still be booted out, without so much as a day in court, because the law would exempt habeas corpus review in some cases. As the American Civil Liberties Union stated in its long brief against the DSEA, "Congress has not exempted any person from habeas corpus - a protection guaranteed by the Constitution - since the Civil War."
  • The government would be instructed to build a mammoth database of citizen DNA information, aimed at "detecting, investigating, prosecuting, preventing or responding to terrorist activities." Samples could be collected without a court order; one need only be suspected of wrongdoing by a law enforcement officer. Those refusing the cheek-swab could be fined $200,000 and jailed for a year. "Because no federal genetic privacy law regulates DNA databases, privacy advocates fear that the data they contain could be misused," Wired News reported March 31. "People with 'flawed' DNA have already suffered genetic discrimination at the hands of employers, insurance companies and the government."
  • Authorities could wiretap anybody for 15 days, and snoop on anyone's Internet usage (including chat and email), all without obtaining a warrant.
  • The government would be specifically instructed not to release any information about detainees held on suspicion of terrorist activities, until they are actually charged with a crime. Or, as Hentoff put it, "for the first time in U.S. history, secret arrests will be specifically permitted."
  • Businesses that rat on their customers to the Feds - even if the information violates privacy agreements, or is, in fact, dead wrong - would be granted immunity. "Such immunity," the ACLU contended, "could provide an incentive for neighbor to spy on neighbor and pose problems similar to those inherent in Attorney General Ashcroft's Operation TIPS."
  • Police officers carrying out illegal searches would also be granted legal immunity if they were just carrying out orders.
  • Federal "consent decrees" limiting local law enforcement agencies' abilities to spy on citizens in their jurisdiction would be rolled back. As Howard Simon, executive director of Florida's ACLU, noted in a March 19 column in the Sarasota Herald Tribune: "The restrictions on political surveillance were hard-fought victories for civil liberties during the 1970s."
  • American citizens could be subject to secret surveillance by their own government on behalf of foreign countries, including dictatorships.
  • The death penalty would be expanded to cover 15 new offenses.
  • And many of PATRIOT I's "sunset provisions" - stipulating that the expanded new enforcement powers would be rescinded in 2005 - would be erased from the books, cementing Ashcroft's rushed legislation in the law books. As UPI noted March 10, "These sunset provisions were a concession to critics of the bill in Congress."
Oh yeah, comrade! If you don't like it move to the Soviet Union where they do evil stuff like, er, the above!

Welch still can't break the old habits and includes the following:

One does not have to believe that Ashcroft is a Constitution-shredding ghoul to find these measures alarming, improper and possibly illegal.
Gee, dude, if he's chomping at the bit to destroy "protection[s] guaranteed by the Constitution", make arbitrary secret arrests, and to spy on U.S. citizens at the behest of foreign governments, then just what the hell is he? The next head of the ACLU?
posted by Steven Baum 4/5/2003 09:29:19 AM | link

Friday, April 04, 2003

SHOOT THE AUDITOR
Jacob Sullum tells how the Cabal is saving money in the Holy War on Drugs.
In light of the current fiscal situation, the Office of National Drug Control Policy has decided to make some cutbacks. But instead of reducing ineffective spending, it is eliminating the research that shows its spending is ineffective. DRCNet notes that the ONDCP has decided to discontinue outside evaluations of its anti-drug ad campaign:
Those studies have found that the drug czar's ads were not working and may even be counterproductive. The most recent study, produced by the research firm Westat and the Annenberg School for Communication, noted that "there is little evidence of direct favorable campaign effects on youth," but there is evidence "for an unfavorable delayed effect... on subsequent intentions to use marijuana, and these are found for the entire youth sample." In other words, kids who watch the drug-terror ads may be more likely to later use marijuana than those who don't.

posted by Steven Baum 4/4/2003 04:49:26 PM | link

"TIGHT LITTLE ECHO CHAMBER"
Digby's (via Atrios) on a roll.
...
These guys live in a tight little echo chamber of reinforcing delusions, enhanced by their own sense of victimhood. The movement conservatives operate on the same principles as "exiles" which explains their frantic determination to check off every item on their agenda at record speed. They feel as if they were exiled by a virtual coup for 8 years when Clinton illegitimately seized power and they will never let that happen again. It's why they hated Clinton with the same fervor that the right wing Cubans hate Castro and it's why the "exiled" Iraqis hold such a place in the hearts of the neocon armchair warriors. They all believed they were unfairly denied their rightful positions as leaders.
...
I've been saying this (intermittently) since 1992, when I was quite frankly shocked at the sustained vehement and vicious reactions of the locals here at 90% GOP University to Clinton having won a presidential election the old-fashioned way. It was as if the divine right of the royal, ruling class to the oval office - which had been held by the GOP for 16 of the 20 years between 1972 and 1992 - had been usurped by satan himself. I distinctly remember one mouth-breather ranting over and over, "I'd kill that motherfucker with my bare hands if I had the chance!" immediately after the election. And the palpable and vocal hatred barely diminished at all over the next 8 years. My shock wore off when I realized where most if not all of the gasoline for the fire came from. These people were damned near all dittoheads. They ate lunch at places where rant/hate radio was played, and they listened to more rant/hate radio in their offices all afternoon. I wasn't exposed to this in my department (oceanography being populated by a pack of godless, hellbound commies who don't feel the need to impose hours of talk radio on their officemates), but found out about it from sane friends in the engineering school, wherein most of the denizens owned well-stained copies of Heinlein and Pournelle, were convinced that being able to solve a static beam problem made them uber-gods, and - most of all - knew everything Rush told them was not just the absolute truth but God's absolute truth. (And it wasn't just the engineering school: a friend in the econ department had some family and financial problems that were intruding on academics, and when he went in to discuss them with the department's counselor, the counselor actually had the radio playing Limbaugh's show loudly for the entire appointment.)
posted by Steven Baum 4/4/2003 03:37:19 PM | link

MOAWW
Al Tompkins really likes the Mother of All War Web Sites. Why?
Holy cow! Wait till you see this site that Larry Larsen passed along to me. It is loaded with war video feeds, online webcams, and links to worldwide reporting from the war. One of the links seems to be a Reuters feed from Baghdad. For a while yesterday I watched the site feed raw tape. You can watch CNN live feeds -- not what is on the air -- the live feeds from the satellite. I watched live Iranian TV. Then I flipped over and watched Jordan TV. Then I watched Saudi TV. (Notice the bottom of the screen crawl moved left to right.) Then I watched the evening news from Ireland.

posted by Steven Baum 4/4/2003 10:58:44 AM | link

MORE ON BOOTS & COOTS
Arms and the Man has dug up more dirt on the linkage between Cheney's Halliburton and Boots and Coots.
Admitted fraud Reed Slatkin - who has confessed to running what has been described as the biggest Ponzi scheme in history -- was a company insider in the formation of an oilfield firefighting company tied to Vice President Dick Cheney. SEC documents show the company, Boots & Coots International Well Control, Inc., was created under the aegis of a contractual "alliance" with Halliburton in 1997. At that time, Vice President Richard Cheney was Halliburton's CEO - responsible for overseeing such operations on behalf of the Board of Directors. A unit of Halliburton now has an agreement to subcontract oil-well firefighting in Iraq to Boots & Coots.

A bankruptcy judge in Santa Barbara ruled in January that Slatkin's written agreement last year to plead guilty to fraud, conspiracy and money laundering establishes clearly that his investment empire was a scam from its beginning in 1986.
...

He also links to a fascinating SMH article wherein the operations manager for Boots & Coots bemoans the shortage of oil well fires in Iraq. I'm sure if he places an order with magnanimous Uncle Dick...
Danny Clayton, operations manager for the delightfully named United States firm Boots and Coots, is a disappointed man. There has not been nearly enough destruction in Iraq for his corporate liking.

Clayton is cranky because the Iraqis had set fire to just nine oil wells in the south of the country. Unless they somehow torch a whole lot more, Clayton's Texas-based company will likely go bust.

A couple of days ago, in comments to The New York Times, he lamented the situation. "It's as easy to destroy 90 wells as it is to destroy nine," he whinged. "But there's still a good chance [of more fires]. They have several more oil fields, and I'm sure that they are not all secured yet."
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/4/2003 10:40:10 AM | link

Thursday, April 03, 2003

ANOTHER PROPAGANDA BLITZ UNMASKED
A very good
response in the Agonist comments section deserves repetition. It concerns the shiny story of the day, i.e. the rescue of Jessica Lynch, which has turned into a vapid myth that would make even John Wayne blush. It's not enough that she was thrown into hell by a pack of craven cowards and survived a most unfortunate combination of circumstances. No, the cowards and their even more craven toadies are attempting to turn a real story with a happy ending into a fucking Rambo-esque cartoon. I might add that if those evil, treasonous anti-war protesters had their evil way, this wouldn't have happened to Ms. Lynch. On the other hand, her financial future is now guaranteed, with the choice of who plays her in the movie the most onerous decision she'll have to make from now on, and I think that's a very good thing.
This is ostensibly a sophisticated group here and yet no-one, NOBODY, has remarked on the 4th post in this thread purporting to tell the story of Jessica within an overall discussion of media.

Within that post I quote: "Under the watchful eyes of more than 40 murderous gunmen, the 19-year-old supply clerk laid in Saddam Hussein Hospital suffering from at least one gunshot wound and several broken bones."

By contrast, this is what her family says: "Gregory Lynch said that he and his wife had spoken to her at the hospital in Landstuhl, Germany, and that - contrary to media reports - she had "no multiple gunshot wounds or knife stabs."

These reports of Lynch suffering multiple gunshot wounds are baldface propaganda lies. This war is simply overflowing with such propaganda. Lies such as got us into this war (the Niger forgery, e.g.), which given our history is not that unusual (TonkinGulf, e.g.), and the Bush administration, some members of the media, and not merely a few members of the general populace think it's ok if we lie our way through it.

I feel sorry for the kid, Lynch. She had no easy way to find a job in W. Va. where she grew up so she followed her siblings into the military being offered no alternative. Middle class and upper class kids don't face this dilemma, this Sophie's choice between risking your life and making a living, but she did and she paid the price. And now the Faux network and their ilk are making money off the results of her dilemma with false stories about her treatment at the hands of the supposed Iraqi monsters. They could care less about her or the monsters; it's all about audience ratings. And so they hype her injuries and her hardships and build her into this week's 15 minute hero.

If you really want to understand the depths into which America is now sinking check this out . I can recall stories about flying the flag upside down as a protest for years. Gun advocates, they call themselves 2nd amendment supporters, have done this without much trouble. There is a protocol for flying the flag upside down: it signals distress. But in today's climate of hyper-patriotism it is obviously cause for attempted murder. The anger of the patriots has been unleashed (I think this is a proxy for class warfare like the hardhat attacks against student demonstrators during the Viet Nam war). It is illuminating though to see the depth of the anger that lies barely beneath the surface of our placid, happy society. People are ready to kill over disagreements about whether or not we should be dropping bombs on other countries. We are seeing the symptoms of a sick society bubbling to the surface now in America. What is the real cause of this anger? It can't be the upside down piece of cloth in and of itself. It is what America means to various Americans, as SYMBOLIZED by that piece of cloth. And I would submit that turning a piece of cloth upside down is not the same as attacking others with baseball bats or whatever these thug's weapons were.

So we stumble into an uncertain future because of a handful of arrogant, ignorant men (and one woman) surrounding this undereducated, psychologically warped president. A mommy's boy who was so challenged by his daddy's success that he bacame enthralled to the devil alcohol and who now has eschewed this devil by bowing before a god he imagines has chosen him to lead us through these difficult times. Life is definitely stranger than fiction; it would be hard to imagine a more pathetic character than our president at this hour, captive to vaulting egos, without a clue as to how the world works beyond our shores.

So, on topic, do not expect American media to be any more trustworthy than al jazeera during times like these. Check out a variety of sources and do not buy any take completely. Be skeptical of everything any military source delivers and think about the money behind the various news entities. BBC is generally good, their reporters properly skeptical by training. AFP and Le Monde are good. In the US we're down to the NY Times and the Washington Post, both supporters of the war to begin with but increasingly questioning the results thus far. The Guardian is good. There are lots of others I check daily but they all run some dogma. It's difficult at times like these because they demand that we all make a choice. overall though I think the overall level of discourse is notches below what it was during the Viet Nam war. This is regrettable and, IMO, indicative of an overall diminution of democratic norms.


posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 10:53:31 PM | link

BERLIN DIARY
Some excerpts from William Shirer's Berlin Diary. These are from 1939 and 1940.
Aug. 10, 1939

How completely isolated a world the German people live in. A glance at the newspapers yesterday and today reminds you of it. Whereas the rest of the world considers that the peace is about to be broken by Germany, that it is Germany that is threatening to attack Poland over Danzig, here in Germany, in the world the local newspapers create, the very reverse is being maintained. (Not that it surprises me, but when you go a way for a while, you forget.) What the Nazi papers are proclaiming is this: that it is Poland which is disturbing the peace of Europe; Poland which is threatening Germany with armed invasion, and so forth. This is the Germany of last September when the steam was turned on in Czechoslovakia.

"POLAND? LOOK OUT!" warns the B.Z. headline, adding: "ANSWER to POLAND, THE RUNNER-AMOK (AMOKLAUFER) AGAINST PEACE AND RIGHT IN EUROPE!"

Or the headline in Der Fuhrer, daily paper of Karlsruhe, which I bought on the train: "WARSAW THREATENS BOMBARDMENT OF DANZIG - UNBELIEVABLE AGITATION OF THE POLISH ARCH-MADNESS (POLNISCHEN GROSSENWAHNS)!"

For perverse perversion of the truth, this is good. You ask: But the German people can't possibly believe these lies? Then you talk to them. So many do.

Sep. 11, 1939

Classic headling in the D.A.Z. tonight: "POLES BOMBARD WARSAW!" The press full of the most fantastic lies. Latest is that two British secret service agents organized the slaying of Germans at Bromberg. When I kidded by military censor, a decent fellow, he blushed.

Oct. 24, 1939

The German people who have been hoping for peace until the bitter end were finally told tonight by Ribbentrop in a speech at Danzig that the war will now have to be fought to a finish. I suppose every government that has ever gone to war has tried to convince its people of three things: (1) that right is on their side; (2) that it is fighting purely in defence of the nation; (3) that it is sure to win. The Nazis are certainly trying to pound these three points into the skins of the people. Modern propaganda technique, especially the radio, certainly helps them.

Nov. 9, 1939

Twelve minutes after Hitler and all the big party leaders left the Burgerbrau Keller in Munich last night, at nine minutes after nine o'clock, a bomb explosion wrecked the hall, killed seven, wounded sixty-three. The bomb had been placed in a pillar directly behind the rostrum from which Hitler had been speaking. Had he remained twelve minutes and one second longer he surely would have been killed. The spot on which he stood was covered with six feet of debris.

No one yet knows who did it. The Nazi press screams that it was the English, the British secret service! It even blames Chamberlin for the deed. Most of us think it smells of another Reichstag fire. In other years Hitler and all the other bigwigs have remained after the speech to talk over old times with the comrades of the Putsch and guzzle beer. Last night they fairly scampered out of the building leaving the rank and file of the comrades to guzzle among themselves. The attempted "assassination" undoubtedly will buck up public opinion behind Hitler and stir up hatred of England. Curious that the official Nazi paper, the Volkische Beobachter, was the only morning paper today to carry the story. A friend called me with the news just as I had finished broadcasting at midnight last night, but all the German radio officials and the censors denied it. They said is was a silly rumour.

Nov. 18, 1939

Yesterday nine young Czech students at the University of Prague were lined up before a German firing squad and executed. At the press conference this noon we asked the authorities why and they replied that the students had staged anti-German demonstrations in Prague on October 23 and November 15. "There can be no joking in war-time," said our spokesman, a little bored by our question.

Nov. 21, 1939

Gestapo cheif Himmler claimed today that he has found the man who planted the bomb that so narrowly missed blowing Hitler to bits at Munich a fortnight ago. His name is given as Georg Elser, thirty-six, and behind him, says Himmler, was the British Intelligence Service and Otto Strasser, a former Nazi leader and now a bitter enemy of Hitler, who lives in France. Himmler's account of how Elser did it sounds fishy indeed. As one German put it to me today after reading the account: "Now I'm sure Himmler planted that bomb."
...
A writer in the Volkische Beobachter will say tomorrow that after seeing Elser "you almost forget you are in the presence of a satanic monster. His eyes are intelligent and the face rather soft."

What Himmler and his gang are up to, obviously, is to convince the gullible German people that the British government tried to win the war by murdering Hitler and his chief aides. The censor today cut out all reference in my script to the Reichstag fire.

Dec. 21, 1939

Eleven admitted executions here in the last two days. About half for espionage and the rest for "damaging the interests of the people in war-time" - the sentences in all but one case being passed by the "People's Court" whose proceedings are never published. One of the eleven was sentenced by the court to fifteen years' imprisonment for "damaging the peoples' interests," but Himmler wasn't satisfied with the sentence, so he simply had the poor fellow shot. "Shot while offering resistance to state authority," Himmler says.

Jan. 24, 1940

I think Percival W., a retired American businessman of German parentage who has spent most of his life in this country, sees something I've been trying to get straight. I had never met him before, but he dropped up to my room this morning for a chat. We discussed the German conception of ethics, honour, conduct. Said he: "For Germans a thing is right, ethical, honourable, if it squares with the tradition of what a German thinks a German should do; or if it advances the interests of Germanism or Germany. But the Germans have no abstract idea of ethics, or honour, or right conduct." He gave a pretty illustration. A German friend said to him: "Isn't it terrible what the Finns are doing, taking on Russia? It's utterly wrong." When Mr. W. remonstrated that, after all, the Finns were only doing what you would expect all decent Germans to do if they got in the same fix - namely, defending their liberty and independence against wanton aggression - his friend retorted: "But Russia is Germany's friend."

In other words, for a German to defend his country's liberty and independence is right. For a Finn to do the same is wrong, because it disturbs Germany's relations with Russia. The abstract idea there is missing in the German mentality.

That probably explains the Germans' complete lack of regard or sympathy for the plight of the Poles or Czechs. What the Germans are doing to these people - murdering them, for one thing - is right because the Germans are doing it, and the victims, in the German view, are an inferior race who must think right whatever the Germans please to do to them. As Dr. Ley puts it: "Right is what the Fuhrer does." All this confirms an idea I got years ago: that the German conception of "honour", about which Germans never cease to talk, is nonsense.

Mar. 30, 1940

The Nazis launched last night what they thought would be a bombshell in America. Today it looks more like a boomerang. And a fine example of clumsy German diplomatic blundering.

The Foreign Office released a new White Book containing what is purported to be sixteen documents discovered by the Germans in the Warsaw Foreign Office. Ribbentrop says they are secret reportsof various Polish envoys. The most important are from the Polish ambassadors in London, Paris, and Washington. They "implicate" American ambassadors Kennedy, Bullitt, and Biddle, and the point of them is that these diplomats, backed by Roosevelt, were leading conspirators in forcing this war on Germany!

Though is seems incredible that even the Germans could be so stupid, my friends in the Foreign Office says that Ribbentrop actually thought these "revelations" would make Roosevelt's position so untenablethat his defeat in the next election - or the defeat of his candidate, should he not run - would be assured. Having got wind of the strong sentiment in America to stay out of war, Ribbentrop thought these "documents" would greatly strengthen the hand of the American isolationists by convincing the American people that Roosevelt and his personally appointed ambassadors had not only had a hand in starting the war but had done everything to get us in. Happily, first American reactions are good and the New York press is suggesting the documents are fakes. They may not be faked; probably only doctored.

Apr. 9, 1940

Ribbentrop sprang up, snake-like, and said: "Gentlemen, yesterday's Allied invasion of Norwegian territorial waters represents the most flagrant violation of the rights of a neutral country. It compares with the British bombardment of Copenhagen in 1807. However" - showing his teeth in a smug grin - "it did not take Germany by surprise...It was the British intention to create a base in Scandanavia from which Germany's flank could be attacked. We are in possession, gentlemen, of incontestable proof. The plan included the occupation of all Scandinavia - Denmark, Norway, Sweden. The German government has the proofs that French and British General Staff officers were already on Scandinavian soil, preparing the way for an Allied landing.

"The whole world can now see," he went on, somehow reminding you of a worm, "the cynicism and brutality with which the Allies tried to create a new theatre of war. A new international law has now been proclaimed which gives one belligerent the right to take unlawful action in answer to the unlawful action of the other belligerent. Germany has availed itself of that right. The Fuhrer has given his answer...Germany has occupied Danish and Norwegian soil in order to protect those countries from the Allies, and will defend their true neutrality until the end of the war. Thus an honoured part of Europe has been saved from certain downfall."
...
The Nazi press has some rare bits tonight: The Angriff: "The young German army has hoisted new glory to its banners...It is one of the most brilliant feats of all time." A feat it is, of course. The Borsen Zeitung: "England goes coldbloodedly over the dead bodies of the small peoples. Germany protects the weak states from the English highway robbers...Norway ought to see the righteousness of Germany's action, which was taken to ensure the freedom of the Norwegian people."

May 6, 1940

Berhard Rust, Nazi Minister of Education, in a broadcast to schoolchildren today, sums up pretty well the German mentality in this year of 1940. He says: "God created the world as a place for work and battle. Whoever doesn't understand the laws of life's battles will be counted out, as in the boxing ring. All the good things on this earth are trophy cups. The strong win them. The weak lose them...The German people under Hitler did not take to arms to break into foreign lands and make other people serve them. They were forced to take arms by states which blocked their way to bread and union."

May 7, 1940

Amusing to read the headlines today: "CHAMBERLIN, THE AGGRESSOR. ALLIED PLANS FOR NEW AGGRESSION!" If the German people were not so intellectually drunk themselves, or so stupid, they might see the humour in it.

May 10, 1940

The German memorandum "justifying" this latest aggression of Hitler's was handed to the ministers of Holland and Belgium at six a.m., about an hour and a half after German troops had violated their neutral soil. It sets up a new record, I think, for cynicism and downright impudence - even for Hitler. It requests the two governments to issue orders that no resistance be made to German troops. "Should the German forces encounter resistance in Belgium or Holland," it goes on, "it will be crushed with every means. The Belgian and Dutch governments alone would bear the responsibility for the consequences and for the bloodshed which would then become unavoidable."
...
War on civilians started too. The other side reported German planes had killed many. Tonight the Germans claimed three Allied planes dropped bombs in the middle of Freiburg, killing twenty-four civilians.
...
Goebbel's propaganda machine, shifting into high gear, discovers today, twenty-four hours after the official announcement that twenty-four persons had been killed by the bombing at Freiburg, that thirteen of the twenty-four were children who were peacefully frolicking on the municipal playground. What were a lot of children doing on a playground in the midst of an air raid? This particularmusing to read the headlines today: "CHAMBERLIN, THE AGGRESSOR. ALLIED PLANS FOR NEW AGGRESSION!" If the German people were not so intellectually Goebbels fake is probably produced to justify German killings of civilians on the other side.

May 16, 1940

I just saw two uncensored news-reels at our press conference in the Propaganda Ministry. Pictures of the German army smashing through Belgium and Holland. Some of the more destructive work of German bombs and shells was shown. Towns laid waste, dead soldiers and horses lying around, and the earth and mortar flying when a shell or bomb hit. Yelled the German announcer: "And thus do we deal death and destruction on our enemies!" The film, in a way, summed up the German poeple to me.


posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 09:12:56 PM |
link

A GREATER GAME?
Gary Anderson offers an end game scenario not based on the "Saddam is insane and has WOMD" chant. One hopes the remaining military leaders not brainwashed by neocon dogma might be considering this and other alternate scenarios.
...
Let's look at what we know. Hussein is an admirer of Ho Chi Minh. He has also studied the American debacles in Lebanon and Somalia. He and his staff have had 12 years to think about how to fight. What follows is how I think he has thought about it.

Begin with a desired strategic end state. I believe that he views the war as an opportunity not only to defeat the Americans but also to hijack leadership of the anti-Western wing of the Arab and Muslim world from Islamic fundamentalists such as Osama bin Laden. To do that against overwhelming American and British conventional military superiority, Hussein must develop a three-pronged strategic approach.

Phase I assumes eventual defeat in a conventional war. If defeat is inevitable, he must make the most of it. Anwar Sadat of Egypt reclaimed a measure of Arab pride in 1973 in a war that, while lost tactically and operationally, was fought with enough skill to regain an Arab sense of honor and pride lost in 1967. The next precept is to make the conventional phase last as long as possible and be as bloody as possible for the American-British coalition. The final sub-phase will be to attempt to turn Baghdad into an Arab Alamo and make "Remember Baghdad" a battle cry, not just for future generations but also for the rest of this war. At this point Hussein would go into hiding or exile, portraying himself as having led a glorious struggle against imperialism and vowing to continue. If he uses chemical weapons, I am wrong. There will be no sanctuary.

The second phase would be a protracted guerrilla war against the "occupation," which the American-British coalition bills as liberation. It is now obvious that the Baath Party has seeded the urban and semi-urban population centers of the country with cadres designed to lead such a guerrilla movement; this is not a last-minute act of desperation or an afterthought. Americans have overrun facilities that have been in place for some time. The war would be waged as an attritional struggle against the occupying forces and any Iraqi interim government. Attempts at free elections would be subverted and portrayed as a sham. The strategic objective of this phase would be to have the Americans and British tire of the effort and turn it over to the United Nations.

Phase III would then be to amass enough semi-conventional power to overwhelm the U.N. and interim government mechanisms. In other words, the concept would be to stage a combination of "Black Hawk Down" and the 1975 North Vietnamese offensive that crushed South Vietnam. A success here would transform Hussein from a regional pariah into a darling of the Arab world. This is a high-risk strategy, but Saddam Hussein is a high-risk kind of guy.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 11:34:57 AM | link

THE CHEMBIO MEME
Even
Josh Marshall has been hypnotized by the "chembio weapons" chant.
The chemical weapons issue is really becoming acute. CNN's Walt Rodgers is doing amazing reporting this morning with the 3-7th Cavalry, speeding toward the outskirts of Baghdad. Earlier this morning he reported seeing many dead Iraqis that his armored column was leaving in its wake as it pushed ahead. According to Rodgers, they were all wearing gas masks -- if not actually donned than at least at their side. Presumably that means the Iraqis are prepared and ready to use chemicals at any moment.
...
Let's take a wee bit deeper look at the possibilities instead of ignoring them and repeating the official Cabal line. Why else might the Iraqi soldiers have gas masks? Let's be outrageous and posit that they just might have them for defensive purposes. Iraq wouldn't be the first country to assume the worst about its enemies, and to turn those worst case scenario assumptions into propaganda, now would it? And even if those who made the decision to issue the gas masks were utterly cynical in their motives, i.e. they didn't consider it even a remote possibility that the invaders would use gas, what better way to motivate the troops to defend their country than to convince them that the evil invaders will use lethal gas weapons on them? It sure as hell worked to motivate support for the invaders, didn't it? And what do you think the Iraqi soldiers will be thinking when they see the invaders with gas masks? Karl Rove and Donald Rumsfeld aren't the only people who've read Machiavelli, you know.

And it's not like the invaders have promised not to use "non-lethal" gas (as well as other types of) weapons of the kind Putin used to kill over 100 hostages in Moscow. After all, how many times do Cabal officials have to repeat "we aren't ruling out the use of...." before the Iraqi command gets the implicit message? Whether you call the gas weapon lethal, non-lethal or happy fun holiday gas, if it kills it's lethal, no matter how many times you say the sun rises in the west.

If you want to presume, how about presuming that the Iraqi command presumes that those who are invading will do anything and everything they can to take over Iraq? And that even as incredibly and historically unprecedentedly evil as the Iraqi command might be, they're not complete idiots who wouldn't supply proper equipment to those representing the last line of defense between them and a war crimes trial or summary execution.

And there is, of course, the possibility that the Iraqi troops have gas masks because they're going to launch a massive gas attack on the invaders. But when that's the only possibility even mentioned by Rumsfeld et al. and their obedient media drones, I tend to get skeptical, especially given their dismal track record thus far.

UPDATE: The Information Clearning House has a couple of items pertinent to this topic. The first is a copy of a (now vanished) speculatory piece at the mysterious Russian site offering analyses/predictions of the Iraq invasion, wherein the author explains why he thinks the Iraqis may not be the ones to use "unconventional" weapons. The second is a Baltimore Sun article by Elisa D. Harris about the supposedly "non-lethal" agents I mention in the above. Given the accuracy of most of the statements thus far made by Rumsy et al., the phrase "if those troops use Iraqi civilians as human shields" can be translated as "if Rumsy bloody well feels like using them, with the bodies and the justifications to be sorted out later."

THE UNITED States is conducting what President Bush has described as a preventive war to eliminate Iraq's chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs.

Statements by senior administration officials indicate that the United States may use chemical weapons of its own - so-called "nonlethal" riot control agents - against Iraqi troops if, for example, those troops use Iraqi civilians as human shields. Such actions are unlikely to protect innocent Iraqis from harm. They could also increase the risk to U.S. troops while violating one of the key disarmament agreements that U.S. military action is designed to uphold.

In little-noticed testimony Feb. 5, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld confirmed before the House Armed Services Committee that the Pentagon has been trying to write rules of engagement that would permit U.S. military forces to use riot control agents (RCAs) in Iraq.

Two of the scenarios that he and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Richard B. Myers, described - when women and children are hidden in a cave with enemy troops, or when they are used as human shields - echo the language of a 1975 executive order that requires prior presidential approval for the use of RCAs in war and permits such agents to be used only for defensive purposes to save lives.

But in the view of most of the rest of the international community, the use of RCAs in situations involving combatants - even when combatants and noncombatants are intermingled - would violate the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which explicitly prohibits the use of RCAs as a "method of warfare." U.S. officials are aware of this restriction, which Mr. Rumsfeld characterized as a "straitjacket" in his congressional testimony.

If, as is feared, Iraqi civilians are used to mask or screen attacks, America's use of RCAs is more likely to affect those civilians than Iraqi troops. This is because Iraqi military forces, which used chemical weapons repeatedly in their war with Iran and against their own Kurdish population in the 1980s, have been trained to survive the use of chemicals on the battlefield and carry gas masks as part of their standard kit.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 10:32:14 AM | link

OSS
A
Daily Kos item prompted me to check out Open Source Solutions, whose manifesto is:
Since 1992, we have championed open source intelligence (OSINT), intelligence reform, and the creation of Smart Nations. Beginning in 2002 we are also championing a global intelligence grid that brings the seven tribes of intelligence (national, military, law enforcement, business, academic, NGO-media, and religious-clan-citizen) into effective relations with one another, in part through the creation of ISO standards for those elements of intelligence that are open, ethical, legal, and generic.
Or, as the Kos entry explains it:
The people behind it were the advocates of open source intelligence. Open source intelligence is what we used to call in my library employee days, books, journals and magazines.
The OSS site's a pretty good read, with links to the sources used for each of their items. I did detect a wee bit of a problem in one of their entries, however.
The US military is capable of a tactical victory in Iraq, but will be incapable of maintaining the peace nor of responding to a major conventional threat in the near-term. Strategically speaking, the US has entered a period of great vulnerability, having sacrificed its military and its flexibility to the crusade against Saddam Hussein ["he tried to kill my Daddy" does not stack up well with the more sensible Italian mafia approach "it's just business']. Today we see three articles of interest--a new Holy War declared in Afghanistan, where the international security force is in real jeopardy; a useful reflection on how the US failed the Shi'ites in 1991 (Robert Baer writes about the Clinton betrayal in See No Evil) and how this betrayal is behind their lack of uprising now; and finally, India on alert for a new suicidal attack, but this time the citizens themselves appear to be in full "intelligence minuteman" mode.
It's a typical entry, i.e. a terse mix of facts and opinion, pertaining to the ongoing invasion of Iraq. It has one glaring factual problem, though, and it's not a minor problem. They write of the "Clinton betrayal" where the "US failed the Shi'ites in 1991". Although Clinton is of course completely responsible for (and no doubt the instigator of) of all the problems of the universe during those hellish eight years from 1992 to 2000, it is a matter of fact rather than opinion that he didn't become President until 1992. Therefore, unless Clinton has a time machine we don't know about or weird backwards-in-time mind control powers, he's not the one who "failed the Shi'ites in 1991". I'm assuming that whoever is responsible for that entry isn't a complete idiot incapable of even figuring who was president in 1991, so it's probably some sort of pathological thing where the author is incapable of considering anything on the "evil" side of their personal "good/evil" spectrum without automatically concluding "Clinton!" (in the same sort of voice Kirk used to intone "Kahn!").

I encountered one of the local pathological automatons on the porch of my favorite local watering hole last week. He was telling me he couldn't wait for the U.S. to take Baghdad because they'd find all sorts of evidence about how the "damned French" sold weapons of mass destruction to Saddam. I told him that it was common knowledge that the French and the U.S. had sold biological weapons materials to Iraq in the mid 1980s, with neither side even bothering to deny doing what the Reagan administration had made legal in the early 1980s. His response? "I just knew that bastard Clinton was involved, too!"

I just noticed an interesting confluence of interests. From the books being peddled on the OSS home page I surmise that Robert D. Steele is involved with the site, which shouldn't surprise me given the subject matter of many of his Amazon book reviews that I mentioned yesterday. I'm assuming he's not responsible for the above glaring error, seeing how I didn't detect any sort of knee-jerk blame-Clintonism is his reviews.
posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 09:18:30 AM | link

RESHUFFLING THE PRETEXTS
Paul Holmes reports on how the Iraq invasion pretext list is being changed again. Note also how tactics that would be labeled "guerrilla" by any military historian not a neocon whore-scribe - and called "guerrilla" by the whore-scribes when they were used by the proto-Taliban "freedom fighters" in Afghanistan on the invading Soviets in the early 1980s - are being called "terrorist" by the Cabal and their dutiful toadies.
When Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld spelled out the eight U.S. objectives in Iraq on day two of the war, he said the first was to topple Saddam Hussein and the second to locate and destroy Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction.

On day 10 of the war, Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clarke restated those eight objectives "as Secretary Rumsfeld described just a week ago."

Ending the Iraqi president's rule remained top of the list, but finding Saddam's suspected chemical and biological weapons had slipped to fourth place and destroying them to fifth.

Objective No. 2 was "to capture or drive out terrorists sheltered in Iraq" and No. 3 was to "collect intelligence on terrorist networks," Clarke said.

References to terror, terrorists and terrorism -- words that resonate with Americans since the Sept. 11 attacks -- now arise more often in the face of unexpectedly stiff resistance from Iraqi fighters using guerrilla-style tactics.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 08:06:30 AM | link

SCREWING THE HEROES
Guiliani tried to screw them before 9/11, and now another prominent GOP hack
wants to do the same. Stevens' suggestion that New York City's surviving firefighters should happily forfeit overtime pay because some of those who died on 9/11 were off-duty is the new leader in the "how low can you go?" derby. Note how he also predictably attempts to play the national security card, as if NYC fires were now being set by Osama bin Hussein's operatives.
Powerful Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens suggested yesterday that New York's cops and firefighters should work overtime without pay as a wartime sacrifice.

"I really feel strongly that we ought to find some way to convince the people that there ought to be some volunteerism at home," said Stevens, a Republican who's chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

"Those people overseas in the desert - they're not getting paid overtime . . . I don't know why the people working for the cities and counties ought to be paid overtime when they're responding to matters of national security," he said.

"Sixty of the 343 firefighters who died on 9/11 were off duty, volunteering to put their lives on the line. We've already done our share," said Uniformed Firefighters Association President Steve Cassidy.

"New York City police officers are among the hardest-working and lowest-paid in the nation. We are on duty 24 hours a day and we are not compensated for 24 hours. In many respects we are already volunteering our services for the safety of New York," said Al O'Leary, spokesman for the Patrolmen's Benevolent Association.


posted by Steven Baum 4/3/2003 07:53:07 AM | link

Wednesday, April 02, 2003

RICHARD NIXON AS TIM POWERS
The Canuck also sends along a marvelous April 1 piece from rec.arts.science.fiction.written.
Bell, Book and Cannons - Three Novels of Horrific Espionage
Introduction by Terry Carr
Richard Milhouse Nixon (1919-1994)
Ballantine Books (2003)
654 pages ($15.95 Harcover)

Although at one time RMN was one of the most prolific American horror authors, since his death in 1994 most of his books have been allowed to fall out of print. In part this is due to the speed at which he wrote, which didn't allow much time for revisitions with the result that many of his 134 novels were eminently forgettable. A few were true masterpieces and it is nice to see his old publisher reprint three of the best.

As Carr explains in the introduction, to understand Nixon's fiction one has to understand that as a young man he seemed destined for great things. WWII interupted that steady rise and RMN found himself serving under Patton in Europe (From notes this was a calculated step intended to attach his career to that of an officer he felt was on the rise). Because Nixon was a fairly liberal man, he was the officer

Patton used to liase with the 761st and so RMN was among the first Americans into Buchenwald*. Images of the death camps would reappear throughout his fiction.

Sometime in 1945 RMN suffered a fall when the building he was in collapsed and although his injuries appeared minor at the time he subsequently developed severe temporal lobe epilepsy. Prior to the war he had intended to go into law and perhaps politics but he felt his epilepsy forever barred both careers for him. Indeed, he doubted whether he could take part in society at all and many people credit his wife (Pat Nixon 1912-1994) with getting him through this period.

One of the symptoms seen with Nixon's form of epilepsy is hypergraphia, the compulsion to continually write. This can take the form of personal journals and in RMN's case it did, meaning that to the joy of grad students everywhere his career is meticulously documented, but it can also take the form of fiction writing. With a wife and child and a pressing need to support them somehow, RMN decided to make use of his affliction and so in 1946 he published what would be the first of many novels.

A Nixon novel always had the following elements: A pragmatic man, who is confronted with horrific events (sometimes mundane, sometimes supernatural), who is unable to simply overcome them but who must always come to some accomedation with them. The pragmatic man can not count on support from his superiors or companions, who may not understand the true nature of the problem of the day and he must be willing to take extreme measures to contain evil to the extent it can be contained.

The Bells of Monte Casino (1949)

Set during WWII, this features an American intelligence officer playing the role of a German officer in Italy. In the course of his work, he becomes aware that the Germans are using Monte Casino for some purpose darker than the fortress it at first appears to be. At great risk to him- self he investigates, discovering a foul nest of Nazi occultism in the process. Although he has no way to escape the fortress himself, he falsifies intelligence reports to induce the allies to reduce Monte Casino in a battle that would ultimately take over 100,000 lives, including that of the protagonist.

This is possible the darkest of his novels, perhaps because at this point Nixon was still embittered over the course he found his life taking.

The Rasputin Candlesticks (1982)

An antique dealer buys a set of bronze Russian candlesticks at auction, only to find himself the target of repeated burglaries, apparently aimed at recovering the candlesticks. Investigating the candlesticks, he discovers they were once the property of Rasputin and that the men trying to recover them are two opposed groups of intelligence agents (Department of Intelligence Services and KGB), both of whom intend to use the cadlesticks in a dark ritual. Because both groups are very well connected, the protagonist can not simply go to the authorities and he has no hope of resisting the agents on his own. In the end, he sells the candlesticks to the DIS agents, having first substituted a well-crafted fake for one of them. The resulting ritual does not, to say the least, go as planned.

Although this was released in the 1980s, internal references clearly place it during the Stubbs administration in the early 1970s.

This was made into an Ian McShane movie and the setting moved to the UK. Although I like McShane in the Bond films, I don't think he did a very credible antique dealer. I did like Marty Feldman as a KGB agent as well as Rip Torn as his opponent from DIS, though.

Blackbeard's Cannon

A St. Thomas resort owner finds his hotel filling with peculiar characters, all obsessed with the cannons that the owner uses as decoration at the resort. It transpires that one of the cannon once belonged to Black- beard and that a map inside the barrel of one of the two cannons is a map to Blackbeard's treasure. Unfortunately for the treasure hunters, they never stop to consider that the treasure might not be merely gold and jewels. As the spectre of Blackbeard possesses person after person, the hapless resort owner must come up with a way to contain an immaterial spirit. Complicating matters is a visiting President, who of course becomes Blackbeard's host.

Actually, aside from the body count this was pretty funny, in a dark way (The meeting where the President's men attempt to ignore the sputtering cannon fuses in the POTUS's beard in particular).

James Nicoll


posted by Steven Baum 4/2/2003 04:43:28 PM |
link

THERE'S A WORD
The Canuck sends me a powerful editorial by Mark Kingwell of the National Post, sure to invoke apoplectic reactions in the neocon brigades.
We've been told countless times over the course of the current Iraqi war, now entering its bloody middle period -- the period, that is, when news coverage begins to pall even as casualties begin to mount -- that we need to support the troops. It is a sentiment widely considered unobjectionable, imposed alike during editorial meetings, radio talk shows and the seventh-inning stretch of baseball games. Only a callous brute would deny support for these brave young men and women.

But we should deny it, and for a very simple logical reason. If the war they are engaged in is unjust, then even the bravest and most honourable soldiers do not merit support. We must distinguish between a wish for their safe and speedy return and an endorsement of what they are doing in the deserts of Iraq. We must distinguish between their courage and the uses to which it is put.

This war is unjust by any measure considered valid in the long tradition of philosophical and legal argument that stretches from Saint Augustine, through Pufendorf and Grotius, to the Geneva Convention and the Nuremberg trials. It is an act of aggression, not defence; it is not being waged to restore peace; it was not the last resort. Whether it is about oil, imperial muscle-flexing or testing client-state loyalty in the New American Century -- or all of these -- matters less than the fact that it lacks basic ethical justification.

You may dispute all of this, may even dispute the worth of the just war tradition. Fine. But do not suggest that opposition to the war is invalid because, now that the war is on, we must support the troops. By that reasoning, any and all war is rendered de facto just, since it always entails feats of courage and self-sacrifice from the admirable young. That is mere militarism, the last refuge of the argument-free. No. If the admirable young are engaged, for whatever reason, in a cause which is not just, they are doing wrong. And our blind approval of their actions is equally wrong.

This is not a popular view, especially in wartime, and it is easy to see why. The shift in media coverage since the war began is palpable. Reporters cannot hide their fascination with wartime machinery and personnel. The planes, the guns, the armoured vehicles -- it's all so compelling, like a shaky-camera war movie or first-person-shooter video game. Formerly sober and balanced journalists now reveal themselves as the military equivalent of jock-sniffers, those uneasy nerd professors who pass a failing point guard so he'll be eligible for the Final Four.

The deep compulsion of war is real enough. I know: I grew up in a military family, relished the thoroughbred machines of late-century air power, came within a whisker of joining up. But the green uniforms of the unified Canadian Forces put me off; I missed the belted blue tunics and jaunty style of the old RCAF, top button undone, my silver swept-wing Sword waiting on the tarmac. This stuff dies hard. When that other national paper recently ran a graphic of U.S. aircraft being deployed in Iraq, I saw immediately that some witless editor had reversed the silhouettes of the A-10 and the F-18, two warplanes that look nothing like each other. Please.

But the pull of war is more than boy's-own fetishism over hardware. All men wonder whether they would be equal to the demands of battle, the physical courage and ability to withstand pain, the need to react under extreme pressure. Could you hack it? The problem, as the shell-shocked VC-sporting officer in Ryan's Daughter says, is that you just don't know. You can't know. And so the rest of us, the vast majority who will never experience combat, will always wonder.

Politicians and generals have always taken advantage of this, slyly mixing the virtues of the battlefield with those of the debating floor. Plato warned centuries ago that this was dangerous, since the demands of war are for glory, not justice, and the end-game of militarism is a state where only combatants enjoy the benefits of citizenship. (The film version of Robert Heinlein's Starship Troopers offers a vivid futuristic version of this, complete with ultraviolence, xenophobia and Nazi-inflected uniforms.)

The current reality is less spectacular but just as sinister. The warrior's virtues are once more annexed by the non-warrior, and politicians are revealed as the ultimate jock-sniffers, rigid old men willing to send young and brave ones to their deaths. Meanwhile, they deploy selective moral arguments in astonishing acts of high-level hypocrisy.

Consider. The Bush administration flouts the authority of the United Nations, thereby weakening its global position, then gets on a high horse about the humanitarian aid programs the UN has suspended because of the attacks. The United States refuses to endorse the International Criminal Court, an agency that might have brought Saddam Hussein to justice without war, yet Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld angrily invokes the Geneva Convention when Iraqi television shows video of captured American prisoners. Peter Arnett is fired by NBC for saying the first American war plan has apparently failed, even as all reports indicate the first American war plan has failed.

Such artful double-standards are formidable rhetorical weapons of empire. They allow power to keep its opponents always one down while mitigating the naked application of power. Heads we win, tails you lose. Critics of this sleight of hand are then accused of "moral equivalency," as if arguing for fairness and the rule of law were a violation of some prior God-given imperative. Which, of course, in the current atmosphere of repression and aggressive patriotism, it is.

There is a word for this combination of military celebration, disdain of objection, intimidation of dissent and abuse of sentiment. The word is fascism.


posted by Steven Baum 4/2/2003 04:36:31 PM |
link

BODY OF SECRETS
Robert D. Steele - a retired professional intelligence officer -
reviews James Bamford's Body of Secrets and vets some of the "scoops" contained therein, nearly all of which have elicited the expected shrieks from the usual suspects, e.g. read many of the other Amazon reviews that slam Bamford's book because the reviewer can't (i.e. refuses to) believe what they're reading.
Among the "scoops" that I as a professional intelligence officer will list for the sake of showing how wide and deep the book goes, are:
  1. Extremely big scoop. Israel attacked U.S. military personnel aboard the USS Liberty with the intent of simulating an Egyptian attack on US forces that would permit a joint US and Israeli retaliation. Even after the ship was destroyed, with very clear evidence from NSA tapes that the Israeli's deliberately attacked a US ship while the ship was flying US colors, President Johnson is reported to have betrayed his military and his Nation by covering this up, intimidating all survivors, and saying he would "not embarrass our allies." In consultation with my naval colleagues, I am satisfied that the author has it right.
  2. US SIGINT failed as North Korea invaded South Korea. Our lack of preparedness, in both systems and linguists, was dereliction of duty at the highest levels. Fast forward to Sudan, East Timor, Burundi, Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Haiti.
  3. US "Operations Security" (OPSEC) is terrible! Bad in World War II, bad in Korea, bad in Viet-Nam, bad in Somalia and bad today. This book is a stark and compelling indictment of the incompetence of U.S. military and political leaders who refuse to recognize that the rest of the world is smart enough to collect our signals and predict our intentions with sufficient effectiveness to neutralize our otherwise substantial power.
  4. Eisenhower, as President, controlled the U-2 operations over Russia and lied to the world and the people about his individual responsibility for those missions.
  5. US SIGINT failed in Arabia and against Israel. "The agency had few Arabic or Hebrew linguists and it was not equipped to eavesdrop on British, French, or Israeli military communications." We are often unable to sort out the truth in conflicts between Arabs and Israel, and this allows Israel to deceive and manipulate American policy makers.
  6. In the early years of the Cold War, the US was the aggressor, and ran incredibly prevocational full bombing runs into northern Russia, simply to test for defenses and to see if it could be done. Young American military personnel were sent as expendable cannon fodder, with the ultimate result that Russia spent billions more on its defenses than it might have if America have been a "good neighbor."
  7. The Joint Chiefs of Staff was "out of control" during our confrontations with Cuba, and proposed to the President of the United States that U.S. military capabilities be used to murder Americans in order to provide a false cover for declaring war on Cuba.
  8. The most senior military officers serving under Kennedy did not have the moral courage to tell him that the Bay of Pigs was a doomed operation. They allowed hundreds to die and be captured rather than "speak truth to power." NSA provided ample SIGINT.
  9. Imagery intelligence beat signals intelligence in answering the ultimate question about the presence of Soviet missiles in Cuba. Those who practice "OPSEC" can defeat our SIGINT capabilities.
  10. US telecommunications companies have for years been giving NSA copies of all telegrams sent by foreign embassies and corporations, compromsing their private sector integrity.
  11. US military power is hollow. For both the USS Liberty and the USS Pueblo, a combination of screw-ups put military personnel in harms' way and a combination of incapacities helped get them killed and captured. In all of Korea only six U.S. aircraft were available to help protect the USS Pueblo, and they required several hours to get ready. The South Koreans, ready to launch defense forces instantly, were forbidden to do so, US leaders being more concerned about avoiding provocation of the North Koreans than about protecting U.S. military personnel.
  12. US successes against the Russians and other targets were completely offset by the combination of the John Walker betrayal (turning over the key lists, this has been known) and the Soviet receipt from the Vietnamese (this has not been known) of a complete warehouse of NSA code machines left behind in Saigon. The Soviets have been reading our mail since 1975, and NSA did not want the President or Congress or the people to know this fact.
  13. The North Vietnamese beat us on SIGINT, with 5000 trained SIGINT personnel and a system that stretched from Guam (where the B-52's were launched and the ground crew radios were in the clear) to the day-to-day operational orders going out to helicopters and fighters "in the clear". The book paints an extraordinarily stark contrast between North Vietnamese competence and US incompetence across all areas of SIGINT and OPSEC.
  14. There are others, but the final scoop is summed up in the author's concluding chapter on NSA's race to build the largest fastest computer at a time when relevant signals are growing exponentially: "Eventually NSA may secretly achieve the ultimate in quickness, compatibility, and efficiency-a computer with petaflop and higher speeds shrunk into a container about a liter in size, and powered by only about ten watts of power: the human brain."
Steele has reviewed over 350 books on Amazon, with most being fascinating reviews of interesting books. He's also written a few himself.
posted by Steven Baum 4/2/2003 01:30:22 PM | link

SPIN SQUAD BUNGLES SIMPLE JOB
A sign of a weakening within the Cabal is that they can't even consistently lie about
whether or not Pretzel Boy watches the war on telly. But at least they're not trying to spin every little detail according the latest poll results and public feedback like that previous evil, evil administration did, eh?
...
After nearly two weeks of war, officials give conflicting messages on the smallest details of Mr Bush's daily routine, such as how much television coverage he is watching. The apparently mundane question of his viewing habits is fraught with potential public relations traps, and has seen White House officials presenting differing accounts as they try to avoid mistakes of former wartime Presidents. The first President Bush, for instance, appeared ill-informed when he sat glued to the television during the opening days of the 1991 Gulf War. Mr Lyndon Johnson was famously pictured in front of three television screens as he watched simultaneous evening network news bulletins from Vietnam.

As a result, White House officials said that the commander-in-chief had not watched the vivid television pictures of the "shock and awe" campaign over Baghdad ten days ago. The aim was to portray Mr Bush as a man sufficiently plugged into the US military campaign and that he didn’t need a television to tell him what was going on. But the image of a leader going about his domestic presidential duties while the US military campaign was played out on live television stretched credibility too far. It backfired when officials admitted that he had indeed been watching. The White House was further on the back foot after a close friend of the President recounted how Mr Bush had laughed at reports that he was not watching the war on TV.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/2/2003 08:40:58 AM | link

PRETZEL BOY FEELS YOUR PAIN
A
USAToday paean to Bush by Judy Keen calms all my fears that this country is being "led" by a religious fanatic with delusions of grandeur.
People who know Bush well say the strain of war is palpable. He rarely jokes with staffers these days and occasionally startles them with sarcastic putdowns. He's being hard on himself; he gave up sweets just before the war began. He's frustrated when armchair generals or members of his own team express doubts about U.S. military strategy. At the same time, some of his usual supporters are concerned by his insistence on sticking with the original war plan.
...
Bush believes he was called by God to lead the nation at this time, says Commerce Secretary Don Evans, a close friend who talks with Bush every day. His history degree from Yale makes him mindful of the importance of the moment. He knows he's making "history-changing decisions," Evans says. But Bush doesn't keep a diary or other personal record of the events that will form his legacy. Aides take notes, but there's no stenographer in most meetings, nor are they videotaped or recorded.
...
The thought of another assault on the United States horrifies Bush. Aides say he believes history and heaven will judge him by his ability to prevent one.
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In the first days of the conflict, the president's aides said he was leaving the details of war planning to his generals. Then, fearing that he might seem too uninvolved, they began describing him as interested in all the specifics.
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"He knows that we're all here to serve a calling greater than self," Evans says. "That's what he's committed his life to do. He understands that he is the one person in the country, in this case really the one person in the world, who has a responsibility to protect and defend freedom."
...
On March 17, before he delivered a 48-hour ultimatum to Saddam, Bush summoned congressional leaders to the White House. They expected a detailed briefing, but the president told them he was notifying them only because he was legally required to do so and then left the room. They were taken aback, and some were annoyed. They were just as surprised by his buoyant mood two days later at another White House meeting.
...
And just a few paragraphs after writing about Pretzel Boy's mood swings, intrepid reporter Judy Keen accepts the following with a straight face:
...
The president's friends and family fret about him, but advisers say the pressure doesn't seem to be getting to him. "He's not one of those people who blows with the wind," Rumsfeld says. "He has a very good inner gyroscope, a stabilizer that keeps him centered."
...
The remainder of the article is basically Keen doing for the Cabal what Monica did for Clinton, if in a figurative sense, although she's an amateur at it compared to Peggy Noonan.
posted by Steven Baum 4/2/2003 08:29:06 AM | link

ROACH ON THE ECONOMY
Stephen Roach isn't too cheerful about the U.S. economy over the next several years.
To me, the big global macro story is still one of mounting and unsustainable imbalances in a US-centric world. It's been a one-engine global economy since 1995. Growth in US domestic demand averaged 4% over the ensuing seven years, double the 2% gains elsewhere in the world. Courtesy of bubble-induced wealth effects, Americans have spent to excess. At the same time, reflecting deepening structural constraints, demand has remained decidedly subpar in Japan and Europe. As a result, America has accounted for literally 64% of the cumulative increase in world GDP over the 1995 to 2002 interval -- double its share in the global economy.

This dichotomy is hardly costless, or sustainable. A saving-short US economy has had to import surplus saving from abroad -- mainly from Asia but also from Europe -- in order to sustain economic growth. And the US has had to run a massive balance-of-payments deficit in order to attract that capital. America's current-account deficit surged to an annualized $548 billion in the fourth quarter of 2002, a record 5.2% of GDP. The financing of such a shortfall requires $2.2 billion of capital inflows each business day -- hardly a trivial consideration for a low-return, post-bubble US economy. Nor is this a stable situation. As America's federal budget goes deeper into deficit, the country’s net national saving rate -- consumers, businesses, and the government sector, combined -- could easily plunge from a record low of 1.6% hit in late 2002 toward "zero." If that occurs, the US current-account deficit could approach 7% of GDP -- requiring about $3 billion of foreign financing each business day.

History is pretty clear on what happens next -- a classic current account adjustment. This will entail a very different macro outcome for the United States -- namely, a weaker dollar, higher real interest rates, and a slowdown in domestic demand. That's precisely the scenario that a dysfunctional world is completely unprepared for. A weaker dollar spells a higher yen and a stronger euro -- outcomes that would undermine the externally-led growth that Japan and Europe have grown accustomed to. A slowdown in US domestic demand growth would exacerbate that problem -- providing far less impetus to the world’s major source of external demand. That would also spread the pain to the trade-dependent economies of Asia ex Japan. As the one-engine global economy starts to sputter, the world will have no choice other than to come up with a new recipe for global growth -- the essence of what I have called "global rebalancing."
...
War -- and the peace that eventually follows -- changes none of this. The global economy had plenty on its plate long before the assault on Iraq began, and I dare say the macro agenda won't change much at all in the postwar period. In fact, there's the distinct possibility that the world's macro conundrum might even be exacerbated by the war. Two considerations come to mind -- the first being a war-related widening of America's already large federal budget deficit. President Bush's request of $75 billion of emergency spending authority is just a down-payment on the cost of this war. A prolonged combat effort -- to say nothing of a multi-year commitment to postwar rebuilding -- could easily require several multiples of this initial request. Those outlays, in conjunction with ill-timed proposals for costly tax reforms, could well take the US budget deficit up to 5% of GDP -- the recipe for an ever-widening current-account deficit in a saving-short US economy. The dollar would bear the brunt of this development -- and that would turn the screws all the tighter on the rest of the world.

Secondly, the war in Iraq could well spell trouble for globalization. To the extent that this conflict undermines the supra-national alliances that have long bound the world together, globalization will lack the collectivism of political support that it needs for further success. That possibility, in conjunction with the potential for trade frictions arising from a weaker dollar, a super-competitive Chinese economy, and the outsourcing of white-collar jobs to nations such as India, spells tough times ahead for globalization. Moreover, the war could well push an already weakened world economy into its second recession in three years -- an outcome that would only make matters worse for globalization. In recession, nations look inward to matters of self interest. By contrast, the look outward to collective interest that globalization requires usually comes in good times.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/2/2003 12:20:27 AM | link

Tuesday, April 01, 2003

WHERE ARE THE WOMD?
Henry Michaels asks the question of the hour/day/year, and comes up with what you might expect from the usual suspects. Rumsy et al. are actually being questioned on the matter by a few journalists whose gonads have been temporarily restored.
...
US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked on Sunday morning television news programs why US forces had not found any of the copious stores of biological and chemical weapons whose existence, the administration had declared, was proven by specific American intelligence. While boasting that US and British forces controlled vast tracts of Iraq, Rumsfeld said they had not yet reached the parts of the country where the weapons were being concealed - "around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat."

Interviewed on other Sunday programs, General Richard Myers, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that "the bulk of it is in the area south of Baghdad," but added that US forces were too engaged in "fighting a war" to look for it. "They're not in there looking for weapons of mass destruction," he said. "That will come after the war is over."
...

That is, Rumsy tells us that the WOMD are hidden where the invaders haven't yet looked, and then his underling tells us that they're too busy to look where they haven't looked. In other words, the search for the hypothesized WOMD that supplied THE pretext to invade (until "liberation" surpassed them at the top of the agitprop charts), and which are mentioned at least once every five minutes during the 24/7 coverage by the Cabal's "little five" to remind us why it was so desperately important to invade and to justify anything done by the invasion forces, has been put on the backburner while more important things are done. That is, the invaders aren't bothering to look for what they claimed made Iraq a clear, present and imminent danger to the entire universe, and which the talking heads constantly remind us could kill thousands if not trillions of the invading forces if used by Stalin Hitler Hussein. "Yaaaaawwwwn. Oh yeah, we'll look for those things AFTER the war."

We then learn of the rousing success they've had so far finding WOMD at locations specified by their best intelligence leads, which we might mention somehow never made it into the hands of the weapons inspectors whose job was to prevent an invasion by finding and disarming all those billions of tons of WOMD.

...
These statements were soon proven to be still more fabrications. The Washington Post and British newspapers reported Monday that shortly before the first bombs fell on Baghdad, special operations teams from the US, Britain and Australia flew into Iraq's western desert to capture four targets of highest priority to the US central command.

They were camouflaged structures believed to house chemical warheads, scud missiles and eight-wheeled transporter-erector launchers, known as TELs. After short firefights, the teams secured the sites, according to military sources, but found nothing. There were "no missiles, no TELs and no chemicals" where blueprints and maps had directed the teams to look, one official said.

Altogether, US forces have now tested at least 10 sites, said to be "their best intelligence leads" - four that first day and another half a dozen since - without result. These may be the very sites Secretary of State Colin Powell cited in his failed attempt to push through a UN Security Council resolution to legitimize the invasion.

According to unnamed US officials, the Defense Intelligence Agency has a list of nearly 300 "top tier" sites for seizure, with the 10 sites reached by last weekend among the most urgent. "All the searches have turned up negative," a Joint Staff officer told the Washington Post. "The munitions that have been found have all been conventional."
...

But we're assured that the WOMD will be found after the war, by the same folks who haven't yet found any and who are desperate to do so to justify their invasion. They'll no doubt find a few hundred primitive nukes, a couple of tons of poison gas, and hundreds of pounds of biological weapons along with, of course, nickel bags and "Eat Christian Babies for Allah" tattoos on each and every enemy corpse.
...
The Bush administration is now saying no weapons of mass destruction may be discovered until well after the war is over, while insisting it will conduct the weapons hunt without the UN agencies that hold Security Council mandates for the job.

US officials have indicated they will not agree to any role for the UN inspections agencies, UNMOVIC and the International Atomic Energy Agency, both of which contradicted Washington’s pre-war claims. UN inspectors left Baghdad on the eve of war, after three months of inspections failed to find such weapons.

Administration officials are already negotiating contracts with private companies for some of the work. They have also begun to poach selected inspectors from UNMOVIC, enticing them to break their contracts with the UN agency.
...

And to top it all off, they'll find all these WOMD without those meddling kids from the UN and the IAEA, instead contracting out the job to companies in the more reliable private sector, e.g. Halliburton.
posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 03:32:04 PM | link

POST DISCOVERS CLOSED SPEECH
The
Washington Post substantiates a previous item about how Condoleezza Rice's speech to the Israeli lobbying group AIPAC was closed to the media and the public. Unsurprisingly enough, the Post tells us about this in the last two paragraphs of the article.
...
The Bush administration was somewhat ambivalent about tying itself to AIPAC and Israel. Though it sent several officials to the meeting with strong pro-Israel messages, there were efforts to keep things low-key. The White House insisted that yesterday's speech by Rice, though delivered to a room with 2,000 people, be "off the record."

"I'm not making this up!" AIPAC's Rosen said to his guests while serving as host at a later session. "All these people were part of an off-the-record discussion."

We also learn that the meeting was attended by - in addition to a "parade of top Bush administration officials" - "half the Senate and a third of the House". That would be the meeting of AIPAC, the lobbying organization that manages to stir up a deafening howl of "anti-semitism" among the punditocracy over which it has no influence whenever anyone suggests that it might have quite a bit of influence on the actions of the U.S. government.
posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 03:13:16 PM | link

THE RUSSKIE VIEW
An interesting site for news about the invasion of Iraq is
http://www1.iraqwar.ru/. Sure, it's part propaganda and the English translations can be a bit rough, but it's an order of magnitude less breathless and crass than the Pentagon's private sector press release agencies.
...
The current technical shape of the coalition forces was discussed during the meeting at the coalition central headquarters. During a personal phone conversation with another serviceman in the US one participant of this meeting called this technical state "depressing". According to him "...a third of our equipment can be dragged to a junk yard right now. We are holding up only thanks to the round-the-clock maintenance. The real heroes on the front lines are not the Marines but the "ants" from the repair units. If it wasn't for them we'd be riding camels by now..." [Reverse-translated from Russian]

Based on the intercepted radio communications, reports from both sides and other intelligence data, since the beginning of the war the coalition lost 15-20 tanks, around 40 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, more than 50 military trucks and up to 10 helicopters. In addition to that there have been at least 40 more disabled tanks, about the same number of disabled APCs and IFVs, about 100 disabled wheeled vehicles of all types and around 40 disabled helicopters. These numbers are based on the analysis of non-classified technical reports received daily by the Pentagon.

During the attack last night up to two US Marine battalions attempted to push the Iraqis out of their defensive positions near An-Najaf. Despite of the preliminary 4-hour-long artillery and aerial bombardment once they approached the Iraqi positions the US troops were met with heavy machine-gun and RPG fire and were forced to return to their original positions. One US tanks was destroyed by a landmine and two APCs were hit during this night attack. Radio intercepts show that 2 Marines were killed and 5 were wounded. The latest attempt by the US troops to improve their positions on the left bank of the Euphrates near An-Nasiriya was also a failure. Despite of all the precautions taken to ensure the tactical surprise the US forces were met with heavy fire and returned to the original positions. According to the reports by the [US] field commanders, three Marines were missing in action and four were wounded in this engagement.

These failed attacked have once again confirmed the fears of the coalition command that the Iraqi forces were much better technically equipped than was believed before the war. In particular, the DIA [US Defense Intelligence Agency] intelligence report from February 2003 insisted that the Iraqi army practically had no night vision equipment except for those systems installed on some tanks and serviceability of even that equipment was questioned. In reality, however, the coalition troops have learned that the Iraqis have an adequate number of night vision surveillance systems and targeting sights even at the squadron level and they know how to properly use this equipment. A particular point of concern [for the coalition] is the fact that most Iraqi night vision systems captured by the coalition are the latest models manufactured in the US and Japan. After analyzing the origins of this equipment the US begun talking about the "Syrian connection". In this regard, the US military experts have analyzed Syria's weapons imports for the past two years and have concluded that in the future fighting [in Iraq] the coalition troops may have to deal with the latest Russian-made anti-tank systems, latest radars and radio reconnaissance systems resistant to the effects electronic counter measures.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 01:50:15 PM | link

THE REFINANCING "BOOM"
The bears at
Daily Reckoning take a look at how consumer spending is being sustained. It's not a particularly fun list of signs to read, although it gets much more (albeit morbidly) entertaining at the end.
Stock prices, and the economy itself, are held up by 2 x 4s. "It is a housing economy," say commentators...as if such a thing could exist.

But it is not exactly the carpenters who keep stocks trading at 40 times core earnings...nor do plumbers keep consumers spending - even in the face of war, pestilence, joblessness, bankruptcies and foreclosures. Instead, the real work of trying to avoid a correction is done not by those who build houses, but by those who finance them.

For every person who refinanced his home in 1990, there are 93.8 people who did so last year, reports James A. Bianco. That is an increase in refi activity of 9,380%.

Consumers "took out" about $80 billion in "equity" from their homes last year, which allowed them to continue living in the manner to which they had become accustomed - despite the fact they were losing their jobs and incomes, while taxes and fuel costs were rising.

The Fed may cut rates again...and may bring about yet even more refi activity...which may hold up the stock market and the economy for a few more months. But sooner or later, the bull market in refinancings must go the way of the Nasdaq.

Despite all the stimulating, the world's economies - with the exception of China - seem to be slouching towards recession.

Bank lending declined 25% from a year ago, reports the Financial Times. European consumer confidence dropped to a 9-year low, says another report.

In America, the index of Chicago Purchasing Managers has turned negative for the first time in 5 months. And a new report from the Levy Institute tells us to beware of a long "growth recession".

"During the 2001 recession," explains Mark Zandi in Barron's, "we lost 2 million jobs...And last time we had unprecedented economic stimulus that we can't...have again."

We can't have it again because the Fed has already cut rates 12 times. Maybe they could cut rates once or twice more before hitting zero...but that is all. And without the stimulus of householders continuing to borrow to live beyond their means, what's left for the economy?

Doug McIntosh offers a guess: "We now see Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae, with hundreds of billions in sub-par mortgages, are reeling like drunks. All that is left is a bankrupt consumer using home equity loans. The actual value of the homes is a fantasy as recent declines in home prices are beginning to show. The last two legs sustaining the economic illusion are now being hammered by high energy prices, endless war, a savage job market and political anarchy on our streets. So, all you optimists out there in TV land...Once the American consumer stops spending, which is now happening, and stops being able to use home equity loans, what's left? I say the abyss, but then I'm a doomer. I prefer to say I'm a student of history, a realist and a shrewd judge of human character. The time of death is now upon the planet Earth I call home. If the four horsemen haven't been released, at least they are pawing the ground at the starting gate. The days ahead will not be pleasant to be sure. We may survive them or we may not. At least it's going to be interesting."


posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 01:43:10 PM | link

BUSH TWIN POWERS...ACTIVATE!
The
Disocciated Press reports a story from a galaxy far, far away.
President George Bush announced Tuesday that his two children--twins Barbara and Jenna--have joined the Army in order to take part in the military action against Iraq.

"They want to help their country," said Bush during a press conference. "They've heard me and my administration talk about how Saddam Hussein is a very bad man. A mad man. A sad man. Behind blue eyes. Won't get fooled again.

"He has nucular weapons and sarin gas and anthrax and West Nile and nerve gas and all kinds of other stuff. And he’s going to use it to destroy the world, including the greatest country in history, the one that is closest to my heart. And after he attacks Israel, he might even attack the United States. Of America.

"That's why my daughters have volunteered to join the Army. They're going to put their money where my mouth is by defending this great land of ours. I'm so proud that they're following in my footsteps by joining the military at their country's time of need. But they won't be defending the skies of Texas from the Viet Cong, like I did for a little while before skipping my last year of service. They're actually going to be in Iraq, flying troop-transport helicopters behind enemy lines. Me and Laura call them 'our little bullet-stoppers.'"
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 11:03:56 AM | link

MORE OF RUMSY'S MILITARY GENIUS
Seymour Hersh continues to expose Rumsfeld's incompetent meddling with the military, which just might have a more deleterious effect on the troops than, say, anti-war protesters. Anyone wanna guess how soon Hersh will be declared an official "enemy of the state", rather than merely an unofficial "traitor" by the madmen running the asylum?
...
Rumsfeld's personal contempt for many of the senior generals and admirals who were promoted to top jobs during the Clinton Administration is widely known. He was especially critical of the Army, with its insistence on maintaining costly mechanized divisions. In his off-the-cuff memoranda, or "snowflakes," as they're called in the Pentagon, he chafed about generals having "the slows" - a reference to Lincoln's characterization of General George McClellan. "In those conditions - an atmosphere of derision and challenge - the senior officers do not offer their best advice," a high-ranking general who served for more than a year under Rumsfeld said. One witness to a meeting recalled Rumsfeld confronting General Eric Shinseki, the Army Chief of Staff, in front of many junior officers. "He was looking at the Chief and waving his hand," the witness said, "saying, 'Are you getting this yet? Are you getting this yet?'"

Gradually, Rumsfeld succeeded in replacing those officers in senior Joint Staff positions who challenged his view. "All the Joint Staff people now are handpicked, and churn out products to make the Secretary of Defense happy," the planner said. "They don't make military judgments - they just respond to his snowflakes."

In the months leading up to the war, a split developed inside the military, with the planners and their immediate superiors warning that the war plan was dangerously thin on troops and materiel, and the top generals - including General Tommy Franks, the head of the U.S. Central Command, and Air Force General Richard Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff - supporting Rumsfeld. After Turkey's parliament astonished the war planners in early March by denying the United States permission to land the 4th Infantry Division in Turkey, Franks initially argued that the war ought to be delayed until the troops could be brought in by another route, a former intelligence official said. "Rummy overruled him."

Many of the present and former officials I spoke to were critical of Franks for his perceived failure to stand up to his civilian superiors. A former senator told me that Franks was widely seen as a commander who "will do what he’s told." A former intelligence official asked, "Why didn’t he go to the President?" A Pentagon official recalled that one senior general used to prepare his deputies for meetings with Rumsfeld by saying, "When you go in to talk to him, you’ve got to be prepared to lay your stars on the table and walk out. Otherwise, he'll walk over you."

In early February, according to a senior Pentagon official, Rumsfeld appeared at the Army Commanders' Conference, a biannual business and social gathering of all the four-star generals. Rumsfeld was invited to join the generals for dinner and make a speech. All went well, the official told me, until Rumsfeld, during a question-and-answer session, was asked about his personal involvement in the deployment of combat units, in some cases with only five or six days’ notice. To the astonishment and anger of the generals, Rumsfeld denied responsibility. "He said, 'I wasn’t involved,'" the official said. "'It was the Joint Staff.'"

"We thought it would be fence-mending, but it was a disaster," the official said of the dinner. "Everybody knew he was looking at these deployment orders. And for him to blame it on the Joint Staff - "The official hesitated a moment, and then said, "It's all about Rummy and the truth."
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 10:43:10 AM | link

THE CABAL NUKES OVERTIME PAY
Ruth Sproull explains the nuts and bolts behind the Cabal's attempt to change federal wage-and-hour regulations. She starts with how the changes are being sold by the corporate press.
...
Associated Press stated on March 27, 2003, in an article posted by Leigh Strope: "Almost 110 million workers are covered by the law, about 80 percent of the work force ... Under the [federal] proposal, any [American] worker earning less than $22,100 a year automatically would be entitled to overtime pay ,,, Companies also could decide to boost salaries above the cap [$22,100] to avoid paying overtime."
...
Wow, this will raise the salaries of all those poor schlubs earning less than $22,100 a year! This proves the Cabal is really the friend of Joe Sixpack rather than Joe Millionaire. Not so fast, my soon to be overworked and underpaid friends.
...
President Bush's proposal looks innocent enough on its face. But the practical effect would profoundly alter the economic relationship of American workers and their employers. The President's regulations would effectively eliminate "time-and-a-half" overtime pay as a point of federal law. The regulations would encourage corporations to combine part-time hourly staff with full-time salaried staff at the $22,100+ salary level. People on the salary would be required to work as many hours over 40 per week as the company wants, for no extra pay.
...

posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 10:30:31 AM | link

RICE SPEECH CLOSED TO PRESS
Howard Witt reports that the Condster is giving a speech to AIPAC, the powerful pro-Israel lobbying group that evil anti-semites and evil self-loathing Jews claim has undue influence on the Cabal. Well, Condi's speech - which will be closed to the media and public at large - will certainly clear up that evil anti-semitic, self-loathing liberal myth.
When Condoleezza Rice, the president's national security adviser, gives a speech Monday to roughly 4,000 members of an influential pro-Israel lobbying group, her remarks will be closed to the media and the public, the White House said Thursday.

The decision, termed routine by the White House, is causing particular discomfort for the lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has been battling the perception among some political commentators that Jewish groups unduly influenced the Bush administration's decision to wage war against Iraq.
...

The article also contains a candidate for the funniest one-liner of the year:
...
But American Israel Public Affairs Committee officials say privately that they are concerned that a closed-door briefing in the midst of the Iraq war by the president's national security adviser may only add fuel to the conspiracy theories.
...
Leave it to those wacky conspiracy nuts to think that a closed-door meeting between the president's national security advisor and the chief Jewish lobbying group indicates that somebody has something to hide.

One might wonder whether Rice's speech will be the *wink wink nudge nudge* rejoinder to the speech given by Colin Powell to AIPAC, which was open to the general public and which contained things AIPAC almost certainly didn't want to hear.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell told a large group of American supporters of Israel tonight that Israel faced "difficult choices" in making peace and that as terrorism by Palestinians subsided, Jewish "settlement activity" in the West Bank and Gaza must end.

Speaking to an annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, known as Aipac, Mr. Powell also gave a vigorous defense of the Bush administration's support for a peace plan drafted over the past year by the United States, Russia, the United Nations and the European Union.

The plan, known as a road map, calls for Palestinians to end support of violence, change their leadership, and adopt a more accountable government, while Israel eases the economic hardship of ordinary Palestinians. Eventually, Israel is supposed to end Jewish settlement in the West Bank and Gaza.

The response for Mr. Powell's call for an end to settlements was decidedly mixed. A much warmer ovation came when Mr. Powell firmly endorsed those in charge of the war in Iraq, evidently taking note of the uncertainty about war plans and possible criticism of Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the commander of allied forces.
...


posted by Steven Baum 4/1/2003 09:54:54 AM | link

Monday, March 31, 2003

ANOTHER STOP ON THE WORLD TOUR
Assuming we ever get past the first stop on Dick and Rumsy's New World Order Tour, the
Asia Times tells of another possible venue. Get your tickets early or miss out on all the fun.
Echoing a wider move away from the US dollar, the Indonesian government and the central bank, Bank Indonesia, may begin to use the euro in export-import transactions and foreign-exchange reserves.

The statement was made by Finance Minister Boediono, Bank Indonesia governor Syahril Sabirin and senior deputy governor Anwar Nasution here on the weekend in connection with state oil company Pertamina's plan to use the euro in its trade transactions. "The US dollar is now still dominating trade. It is possible to use [the] euro when it replaces the dollar's position," the minister said.

Boediono said that if the US dollar continues to weaken compared with other foreign currencies including the euro, users of the greenback may seek more stable currencies.


posted by Steven Baum 3/31/2003 04:03:38 PM | link

QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I have difficulty understanding those who claim there is a threat to them across the ocean. And when Turkey says the same threat exists on the other side of its border, this is found to be unbelievable."

Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, the head of the Turkish military (from a NYTimes piece)


posted by Steven Baum 3/31/2003 10:25:04 AM | link

SCENARIO NO. 3
Joshua Marshall received an email from a former career diplomat. It discusses three scenarios for the Iraq endgame, with the third seen as most likely.
...
This is what I think is the most likely scenario. Cooler heads such as Colin Powell and our senior military leaders will be able to convince Bush that Option 1 and 2 are not "viable," to use a USG phrase. (It will be a tough sell, because Bush personally will prefer Option 1, the stay the course, show the world (and Daddy) how tough and determined and "focused" I am). Our military leaders, already mad at Rummy and company for not giving them the forces they needed to do the job, will simply not want to engage in such butchery or subject their forces to heavy casulaties. Tony Blair will make the same point. But what to do? We will need to surround the city, secure the rest of the country, and then play the game of "political standoff." Somebody will have to blink.

If there is this political standoff (option 3), then others in the world -- the UN, our European allies, responsible NAM members -- will push to eliminate two of our objectives (regime change and liberation) and return to what 1441 was all about, which is inspections and disarmament. With our forces in country, we will have in effect what Jessica Matthews called for before the war started -- "robust inspections." With US military force at hand, UN inspectors should be able to go anywhere they want to outside Baghdad. If Saddam wants the rest of his country back, he would have to agree to robust inspections within the 50 miles radius of Baghdad as well.

After Option 3 goes into play, Bush will need to deflect blame in order to try and save his political skin. He will let Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz know that he wants their resignations. The finger pointing around town will be staggering. Career military officers and CIA/DIA analysts will continue to leak damaging stories of how their concerns were suppressed at "the political level." A number of military officers will resign/ retire because the honor of their service and the lives of their men/women were needlessly squandered by an arrogant and deaf political leadership. There will be calls from the talking heads that if Bush wants to be re-elected, he should start to focus on the economy and replace the disgraced Cheney on the ticket in 2004 with Colin Powell. The Democrats will be as ineffectual as ever in taking advantage of all this.
...

The talking (i.e. bloviating) heads will ensure that the re-election of the Cabal will be discussed as a very real possibility and even a good thing, with the problems of the economy attributed to Clinton's penis.
posted by Steven Baum 3/31/2003 09:36:20 AM | link

Sunday, March 30, 2003

CABAL WORKS TO EVISCERATE FLSA
The Cabal is
attempting to rewrite the rules to deny overtime pay to those who actually work overtime. Anyone want to bet that the Cabal drones have also internally discussed rescinding those "anti-business" child labor laws?
The Bush administration proposed new rules March 27 that would erode the 40-hour workweek and deny overtime pay protections to millions of workers. The proposed changes to Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) regulations would affect a wide range of the more than 80 million workers protected by the FLSA.

FLSA's current overtime rules protect workers from employers who do not now require workers to unreasonably long hours because they are required to pay overtime. The Bush rules could mean that many workers would face unpredictable work schedules because of an increased demand for extra hours for which employers would not have to pay time-and-half.

The Bush administration claims its proposal to raise the income ceiling for workers to automatically qualify for overtime pay would extend protection to some lower-income workers currently excluded. But most of these workers already are covered by overtime protections because of the nature of their jobs. In contrast, the Bush administration's proposed changes in workers' job definitions and duties that must be met to allow an employer to classify workers as "exempt" and thus ineligible for overtime would affect many more hundreds of thousands of workers.

Many working families depend on overtime pay to balance their checkbooks and pay bills - especially during the current economic recession that has resulted in stagnant and declining wages, increasing costs of health care, prescription drugs, child care, gasoline and other everyday expenses. The Bush proposal would cut into many of those families' paychecks.

The Bush overtime proposal:

  • Excludes previously protected workers by reclassifying them as managers, administrative or professional employees who are not eligible for overtime pay.
  • Eliminates certain middle-income workers from overtime protections by adding an income limit, above which workers no longer qualify for overtime.
  • Removes from overtime protection large numbers of workers in aerospace, defense, health care, high tech and other industries.

posted by Steven Baum 3/30/2003 08:11:54 AM | link


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