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Ethel the Blog
Observations (and occasional brash opining) on science, computers, books, music and other shiny things that catch my mind's eye. There's a home page with ostensibly more permanent stuff. This is intended to be more functional than decorative. I neither intend nor want to surf on the bleeding edge, keep it real, redefine journalism or attract nyphomaniacal groupies (well, maybe a wee bit of the latter). The occasional cheap laugh, raised eyebrow or provocation of interest are all I'll plead guilty to in the matter of intent. Bene qui latuit bene vixit.

The usual copyright stuff applies, but I probably won't get enraged until I find a clone site with absolutely no attribution (which, by the way, has happened twice with some of my other stuff). Finally, if anyone's offended by anything on this site then please do notify me immediately. I like to keep track of those times when I get something right.

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Friday, February 15, 2002

FORBES JOINS CONSPIRACY MONGERS
Daniel Fisher of
Forbes (via Progressive Review) joins the "conspiracy nuts."
It has been called the pipeline from hell, to hell, through hell. It's a 1,270-kilometer conduit, 1.2 meters in diameter, that would snake across Afghanistan to carry natural gas from eastern Turkmenistan-with 700 billion cubic meters of proven reserves-to energy-hungry Pakistan and beyond. Unocal of the U.S. and Bridas Petroleum of Argentina vied for the $1.9 billion project in the 1990s. Now, with the collapse of the Taliban, oil executives are suddenly talking again about building it. "It is absolutely essential that the U.S. make the pipeline the centerpiece of rebuilding Afghanistan," says S. Rob Sobhani, a professor of foreign relations at Georgetown University and the head of Caspian Energy Consulting. The State Department thinks it's a great idea, too. Routing the gas through Iran would be avoided, and Central Asian republics wouldn't have to ship through Russian pipelines.

posted by Steven Baum 2/15/2002 02:57:58 PM | link

COMMISSARS STRONG-ARM MEDIA
The refrain that reports of civilian casualties within Afghanistan are "unconfirmed" or "biased" is babbled continuously by the Bush Cabal and its loyal toadies. So what happens when confirmation is sought?
Reporters Without Borders (via Progressive Review) tells us.
Doug Struck, correspondent with the Washington Post in Afghanistan, was restrained at gunpoint by American soldiers while he was investigating the impact of an American missile fired in Afghanistan. The group has asked the Secretary of State to provide explanations concerning this incident.

According to information obtained by RSF, on 10 February 2002, Struck was threatened and restrained at gunpoint by American soldiers, who said they would shoot him if he did not respect a security perimeter around the US missile impact area. "If you go further, you would be shot," said the commanding officer. The Washington Post said it was "baffled" by this incident.

RSF points out that on 20 December 2001, Joao Silva and Tyler Hicks, photographers with the New York Times, and David Guttenfelder, photographer with Associated Press, were roughed up and threatened by Afghans in the presence of members of American special forces in Meelawa, near Tora Bora. The American commandos refused to allow US journalists to be present in this area, and local Afghan forces were in charge of preventing the press from reaching it. According to David Guttenfelder, members of the US special forces personally gave orders to Afghans to arrest them. Film was confiscated from the photographers.

Ring the chimes of freedom.
posted by Steven Baum 2/15/2002 02:50:23 PM | link

THE CABAL AGAINST THE WORLD
Despite their constant yammering about invading Iraq (and apparent
plans for invading with 200,000 troops), that pack of egomaniacal, power-drunk frat boys known as the Bush Cabal is the only group in the world that think it a good idea. The leaders of the opposition to Saddam Hussein in Iraq just joined those who think its a really stupid idea. We'll start with the leader of SCIRI, an armed Iraqi opposition group:
The Bush adminstration is accelerating development of plans to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. But the leader of one of the few credible armed Iraqi opposition groups says he doesn't want Washington's help.

"There is no need to send troops from outside to Iraq," says the black-turbaned Ayatollah Mohammad Bakr al-Hakkim, leader of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). "It could be seen as an invasion and could create new problems."

Though courted for months by American diplomats to join in their effort to overthrow Mr. Hussein, Ayatollah al-Hakkim - also commander of the 10,000-strong Badr Brigade militia - urges caution in a rare interview. The chief reason is President Bush's declaration that SCIRI'S host and sponsor, Iran, is part of an "axis of evil," as well as the past experience of the Iraqi opposition with "unreliable" US support.

By the way, that past "unreliable US support" consists mainly of Bush the First promising the opposition help if they rose up against Hussein in 1991, and then actually giving no help at all as the opposition was slaughtered.
The "Afghan model" of backing proxy forces, as the US did against the Taliban late last year, does not apply to Iraq, al-Hakkim says. One Pentagon option includes a pincer operation toward Baghdad, with 50,000 American troops moving from the south with SCIRI's Shia Muslim guerrillas and 50,000 more moving from the north with Kurdish fighters.

Such plans are "very far-fetched" and a "bad idea," al-Hakkim says, his cleric's face framed by a gray beard. "The best thing the US can do is force the regime not to use its heavy weapons against the people, like they did in Kosovo. Then the Iraqi people can bring change--it must be done by the Iraqis themselves."

And then we have the leaders of the Kurdish parties:
But the Kurdish factions are less enthusiastic about fighting than the [Afghan northern] alliance. Iraqi government forces are much more powerful than were the Taliban's. Most of Afghanistan's neighbours backed or acquiesced in the removal of the Taliban, but most of Iraq's neighbours strongly oppose military action against Saddam.

Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party, one of the two main Iraqi Kurdish factions, said: "We will not be ordered by America or any others. We will not be a bargaining chip or tool of pressure to be used against Iraq."

His old rival, Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said: "We will not enter adventures whose end is unclear.

All this brings into even sharper focus the complete absurdity of the "axis of evil" blitherings of Shrub, seeing how one member of the supposed axis is supporting an opposition group attempting to overthrow another member of the axis. It even managed to scuttle what was an increasingly friendly and productive relationship between the U.S. and SCIRI.
Contacts between SCIRI and US officials outside Iran had warmed during the Afghan campaign, like those between the US and Iran. American diplomats had been increasing contacts for months.

"They were making good progress. It even looked like SCIRI might take US money for the first time, as a gesture of good will," says Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. "There was a minor love-fest going on in London, until the 'axis of evil' speech. We can forget about that now - it's not going to happen."

Does anyone not brain dead still give that "axis of evil" crap a picogram of credibility?
posted by Steven Baum 2/15/2002 02:10:58 PM | link

ONE LESS PASSENGER TO LUCKENBACH
The honky tonks in Texas
Were like Nashville's second home
Where you tip your hat to the ladies
And the rose of San Antone
I grew up on that music
That we call Texas swing
And it don't matter who's in Austin
Bob Wills is still the king

Lord, I can still remember
The way things were back then
And in spite of all the hard times
I'd live them all again
To hear the Texas Playboys
And Tommy Duncan sing
Makes me proud to be from Texas
Where Bob Wills is still the King

If you ain't never been there
Then I guess you ain't been told
That you just can't live in Texas
'less you have a lot of soul
It's the home of Willie Nelson
And the home of western swing
And he'll be the first to tell you
Bob Wills is still the King

Waylon Jennings

The fate that snagged the Big Bopper instead of him finally caught up with Waylon, and now Bear Bob won't have to decry me as the cad that I am.
posted by Steven Baum 2/15/2002 01:53:40 PM |
link

Wednesday, February 13, 2002

OIL IS THICKER THAN BLOOD
For those wondering
why, despite more links to 9/11 than you'll find on Kielbasa Day in Warsaw, the Saudis not only haven't been invaded but haven't even been verbally threatened by They Who Would Fight the War Eternal.
The day after the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, Crown Prince Abdullah ibn Abdulaziz, the Saudi leader, summoned Oil Minister Ali Nuaimi. Saudi Arabia, they quickly decided, would renege on a recent promise to other OPEC nations to cut oil production. Instead, it would rush an extra 9 million barrels of oil to the United States to ensure ample supplies and show Saudi support for a wounded ally.

For the next two weeks, using its own tankers, Saudi Arabia shipped 500,00 barrels or more a day to the United States. This extra Saudi oil helped reduce the price of crude from $28 a barrel in late August to less than 20 a few weeks later. Ever since, American consumers have enjoyed cheap gasoline.


posted by Steven Baum 2/13/2002 09:02:19 AM | link

Tuesday, February 12, 2002

THE ROAD TO BETTER PROGRAMMING
Damned clever Teodor Zlatanov is writing a series of articles comprising a complete guide to better programming in Perl over at IBM's
Linux Zone. Who's it for? According to Teodor:
This is the book for the beginner to intermediate Perl programmer. But even an advanced Perl programmer can find the majority of the chapters exciting and relevant, from the tips of Part I to the project management tools presented in Part II to the Parse::RecDescentsource code analysis scripts in Part III.
The chapters thus far: Other articles by the positively Jeeves-esque Teodor include:
posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 10:20:16 AM | link

SCRIBUS
Ray Shaw reviews Scribus, an open source alternative to PageMaker, Quark, InDesign, etc. It's still in the early stages of development (shocked, aren't you?), but seems promising. According to Shaw:
Scribus is off on the right foot, and it has many features that are fairly advanced for a version number like 0.5. It has some sizable hurdles to overcome, but since it's come this far, I have high hopes for it.

posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 10:11:56 AM | link

CHEAP MAILSERVERS WITH OPEN SOURCE
Russell Pavlicek tells how to modify a Linux or FreeBSD system to provide a cheap and easy mailserver via a modem connection to an ISP. While the article is itself interesting, the real entertainment is provided by one of the responses.
Dear Mr. Pavlicek,

Nice article, thanks. I have but one nit to pick: I wish that tech writers would stop using "grandma" as the exemplar of the clueless user. It's not worthy, and it alienates people unnecessarily. If a standard clueless user is needed to illustrate ease of use, how about Pointy-Haired Boss? Or perhaps compare to common, single-function appliances: "As easy as picking up the phone."

best regards, Ellyn

PS- my grandmother picked up her first DOS 5.0 pc when she was 87. In six months she had that thing doing everything but chop wood.


posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 10:03:31 AM | link

MEMOIRS OF AN INVISIBLE FIREWALL
And while we're on the subject, Wes at
OpenlySecure.org offers Memoirs of an Invisible Firewall. First, the dream:
Dream with me for a moment: A black box, shimmering in the soft LED-green glow of the network cabinet. You take the network cable from your router, which previously went into a switch, and stick it in one of the snappy plugs in the back of the box. There's one more plug on the black box, so you grab another cable and hook the box up to the switch. You step back, and suddenly: everything looks the same. You go to all your computers. As far as you can tell from inside and outside the network, the box doesn't exist. It does nothing. A few minutes later, you have a monitor and keyboard hooked up to the back of the box. You quickly and easily begin to tweak a file that gives you fine grained control over access to your network. You shut off all access to your mailserver from the outside world except on port 25.
Then the how:
How does this box get built? Well here's a hint: under OpenBSD it is relatively easy to bridge two network interface cards together. What does this mean? It means that every packet that appears on one card will be sent to the other. It essentially turns your computer into a $.50 piece of connecting cable ... with one key difference: as the packets move from one card to another, the computer can inspect and filter them.
The ideal Valentine's Day gift for the truly paranoid, and all it would take is an old 486, a couple of network cards, and a fairly simple OpenBSD install. Avoid the cliches this year!
posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 09:53:30 AM | link

HALTED FIREWALLS
Mike Murray (via RootPrompt) tells of an apparently now-deprecated feature found in 2.0.X Linux kernels. You could shut down the machine with ipchains still running, and the box would continue to perform firewall tasks. Murray discusses the security possibilities:
I realized the security implications of such a possibility. Assuming that the firewall could be cleanly shut down, having removed all process space and file systems, there would be no way for any attacker to gain access to the system. This is because there is a complete lack of process space, and there are no drives mounted. Thus, an attacker could not run code on the system outside of code that he or she could directly introduce into kernel space. This would require writing shell code to produce the desired results, which would not be a trivial task.

Note that this doesn't make the firewall invulnerable to denial of service-type attacks. In fact, with respect to denial of service and resource-exhaustion attacks, this machine is no more secure than any ordinary Linux-based firewall. However, it can also be said that it is not significantly more vulnerable to that type of attacks.

Because this method does ensure that no user will ever gain controlling access to the firewall itself, there is definitely a huge security benefit. It's a step in the direction of the old adage that the only perfectly secure machine is one turned off and locked in a room.

There are also limitations, which he also discusses, but all in all it's an interesting concept.
posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 09:49:20 AM | link

openMosix
Slashdot reports the beginnings of the openMosix Project. This was started by Moshe Bar, who split from the commercial Mosix project. Why?
After a difference of opinions on the commercial future of Mosix, I have started a new clustering company - Qlusters, Inc. - and Prof. Barak has decided not to participate for the moment in this venture (although he did seriously consider joining) and held long running negotiations with investors. It appears that Mosix is not any longer supported openly as a GPL project. Because there is a significant user base out there (about 1000 installations world-wide), I have decided to continue the development and support of the Mosix project under a new name, openMosix under the full GPL2 license. Whatever code in openMosix comes from the old Mosix project is Copyright 2002 by Amnon Bark. All the new code is copyright 2002 by Moshe Bar.
The FAQ tells us that openMosix is currently a pure fork of Mosix, but will become a separate clustering platform with its own distinct feature set and behavior. The original Mosix FAQ should answer all your other questions, including the obvious one:
MOSIX is a software that was specifically designed to enhance Unix with cluster computing capabilities. ... The core of MOSIX are adaptive management algorithms that monitor and respond to uneven resource distribution among the nodes. Shortly after the creation of a new process, MOSIX attempts to assign it to the best available node at that time. The algorithms of MOSIX are decentralized - each node is both a master for processes that were created locally, and a server for processes that were assigned to it from other nodes. The MOSIX algorithms are geared for maximal performance, overhead-free scalability and ease-of-use.

posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 09:38:45 AM | link

CAREER CHANGE
Talk about your career shifts. Bob Mould, one of the chief architects of the still fresh and interesting classic
Zen Arcade (for which there's an entire tribute album called Du Huskers: A Tribute to Zen Arcade), was interviewed in the most recent (2/10/02) NYTimes Magazine and revealed quite the career change in the late 1980s. The talk turns to Jesse Ventura being a big fan of Husker Du in the early 1980s:
Q: Really? Governor Ventura went to Husker Du shows?

A: All the time. We were pretty tight with Jess, actually. Used to go to his gym. Fast-forward up through the late 80s - I wrote for a wrestling fanzine and got to know some people down in Atlanta when Ted Turner bought a wrestling organization [the now defunct WCW] and made it the flagship for TBS. On and off for 10 years I would feed ideas to them. Finally they called me and asked me to work there full time as a script consultant. It was the best offer anyone ever made me.

Q: So you just packed up your music career and turned to wrestling?

A:: Pretty much. The first afternoon I was there, they sat me down in a room with Hulk Hogan and he was like, "Nice to meet you, brother - what you got?"

Q: And what did you have?

A: It's like my whole life was waiting for this moment, so I knew what to say. I said: "Here's how you want to open the show tonight. We've got Sting, who beat you last night. Controversial - Sting is now a freshly turned heel. I want to send him out with his buddy Lex Luger. He's going to cut a heel promo on the fans. We're in the Dean Dome in Chapel Hill. He's going to call it a dump, and that's going to get the entire crowd going bananas."

For those more interested in Mould's music than his role as playwright to the steroid-crazed, the interview starts out by revealing that he's going to put out the first of three albums this year starting next month.
posted by Steven Baum 2/12/2002 08:59:45 AM | link

Monday, February 11, 2002

THE BCCI AFFAIR
The financial shenanigans related to both Enron and 9/11 make
The BCCI Affair, a 1992 Senate report by Senators John Kerry and Hank Brown, essential reading. From the introduction:
BCCI cannot be taken as an isolated example of a rogue bank, but a case study of the vulnerability of the world to international crime on a global scope that is beyond the current ability of governments to control. Its multi-billion dollar collapse is merely the latest in a series of international financial scandals that have bedeviled international banking this century. Its techniques and its associations with government officials, intelligence agencies, and arms traffickers, were neither new nor unique.

For example, as far back as the 1920's, the International Match Corp bilked shareholders and lenders out of some $500 million through switching company assets and liabilities among a series of shell entities, creating fictional assets when existing ones were adequate, and through transferring funds from the United States offshore. All the while, its chairman, Ivan Kreuger, maintained friendships with numerous world leaders including then U.S. President Herbert Hoover, in a manner reminiscent of BCCI's founder Agha Hasan Abedi's relationships wit President Carter a half a century later.

During the 1960's, the Channel Islands off the coast of England became the host to a series of post-off box banks, including the infamous Bank of Sark, whose facilities including a room over a pub, a desk and a telephone. That headquarters proved adequate to enable the swindlers who established the bank to use it to sell some $100 million in fraudulent checks and letters of credit on the phantom bank before their criminality was discovered.

In the same period, Bernie Cornfeld, chairman of the Investors Overseas Service (IOS), which sold "The Fund of Funds," and fugitive financier Robert Vesco, siphoned off hundreds of millions of dollars from investors in the mutual fund that at its height had $3 billion in assets under its management. In doing so, it moved funds held at Credit Suisse to a small bank which IOS itself owned based in Luxembourg, from which the funds disappeared. Again, this technique anticipated the methods used by BCCI to shift assets from legitimate institutions to its own, and then to engage in wire transfers sufficient to make them impossible to track.

Similar techniques were used by Italian financier Michele Sindona in connection with his management of Banco Ambrosiano in Italy; and by former CIA agent Michael Hand in the drug money laundering Nugan Hand Bank in Australia during the late 1970's and early 1980's. The latter institution had numerous ties to U.S. intelligence and military personnel which have never been explained.

Thus, the rise and fall of BCCI is not an isolated phenomenon, but a recurrent problem that has grown along with the growth in the international financial community itself. Given the extraordinary magnitude of international financial transactions -- which amount to some $4 trillion per day moving through the New York clearance system alone -- the opportunities for fraud are huge, the rewards great, and the systems put in place to protect against them, far from adequate, as this report demonstrates in some detail.


posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 08:43:51 PM | link

THE PERFUMED GARDEN
A fun recent acquisition in the book department is the first American edition of Richard Burton's (the explorer, NOT the bloody actor) translation of The Perfumed Garden of the Shaykh Nefzawi (1964, Gramercy Press). While Burton is notorious for his Kama Sutra translation, this one isn't nearly as well known. In the chapter entitled "Concerning Everything Favourable to the Act of Coition", the Shaykh tells of eleven manners (from "Manner the first" to "Manner the eleventh") for getting things done, but then goes on to praise India for having developed the art to a higher degree. He then lists an additional 25 manners:
  • El asemeud, the stopperage
  • El modefeda, frog fashion
  • El mokefa, with the toes cramped
  • El mokeurmeutt, with legs in the air
  • El setouri, he-goat fashion
  • El loulabi, the screw of Archimedes
  • El kelouci, the summersault
  • Hachou en nekanok, the tail of the ostrich
  • Lebeuss el djoureb, fitting on of the sock
  • Kechef el astine, reciprocal sight of the posteriors
  • Neza el kouss, the rainbow arch
  • Nesedj el kheuzz, alternative piercing
  • Dok el arz, pounding on the spot
  • NIk el kohoul, coition from the back
  • El keurchi, belly to belly
  • El kebachi, ram-fashion
  • Dok el outed, driving the peg home
  • Sebek el heub, love's fusion
  • Tred ech chate, sheep-fashion
  • Kalen el miche, interchange in coition
  • Rekeud el air, the race of the member
  • El modakheli, the fitter-in
  • El khouariki, the one who stops in the house
  • Nik el haddadi, the smith's coition
  • El moheundi, the seducer
Consider this a Valentine's Day special from the Love Ain't Nothin' But Sex Misspelled Department here at EthelCo. Funny how the further you get away from 40, the more you understand Al Bundy.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 08:29:15 PM |
link

TARGET 2055
Al Martin's
latest is the usual fun read, but one paragraph really caught my mind's eye.
Former Rep. Bill Alexander (D- Ark.) told me that Clinton used to say privately that he realized that the rest of the world outside the United States was gradually falling apart. The projections were done through the Target 2055 study, the largest inter-agency study commissioned during the Bush I Administration, which included participation by OMB, GAO, Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve etc. It was the greatest financial and economics-demographics study ever done by government at a cost of $3 billion. It was this study whose conclusions were so dire that the Bush Administration had it suppressed until they left office.
Does anyone know anything further about that Target 2055 report and, more to the point, know how to obtain a copy of it? It sounds like some reeeeeeeeeeal interesting reading.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 08:08:55 PM | link

CHENEY AND RICE MOUTH OFF
WorldNetDaily reports tells us how Dick Cheney and Condi Rice really feel.
Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin ben Eliezer was forced yesterday to make a formal apology to senior members of the United States government after revealing to the press off-the-cuff comments made by Vice President Dick Cheney and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice in his meetings with them in Washington.

Ben Eliezer told the newspaper Yedioth Aharonot that he was surprised by the tough position senior Bush administration officials, including Cheney, had taken against Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

"On the subject, Cheney was more extreme than me," ben Eliezer said. Ben Eliezer also said that when he had discussed Arafat with Rice, she had said that it was a waste of time dealing with him.

Yedioth Aharonot quoted ben Eliezer yesterday as saying: "The vice president told me: 'As far as I am concerned, you can even hang him," with regard to Arafat.

Ben Eliezer has since retracted his statements, probably after Sharon reminded him what happens to people who cross him, and official White House liar Ari Fleischer is denying even that his mother gave birth to him. This fills me with even more confidence about the drooling fuckwits who stole and currently inhabit the White House. You couldn't do any worse if you went out and rounded up a pack of crack whores and winos.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 05:01:17 PM | link

THE AXIS PANDEMIC
Satire Wire tells of a proliferation of axes:
International reaction to Bush's Axis of Evil declaration was swift, as within minutes, France surrendered.

Elsewhere, peer-conscious nations rushed to gain triumvirate status in what became a game of geopolitical chairs. Cuba, Sudan, and Serbia said they had formed the Axis of Somewhat Evil, forcing Somalia to join with Uganda and Myanmar in the Axis of Occasionally Evil, while Bulgaria, Indonesia and Russia established the Axis of Not So Much Evil Really As Just Generally Disagreeable.

With the criteria suddenly expanded and all the desirable clubs filling up, Sierra Leone, El Salvador, and Rwanda applied to be called the Axis of Countries That Aren't the Worst But Certainly Won't Be Asked to Host the Olympics; Canada, Mexico, and Australia formed the Axis of Nations That Are Actually Quite Nice But Secretly Have Nasty Thoughts About America, while Spain, Scotland, and New Zealand established the Axis of Countries That Sometimes Ask Sheep to Wear Lipstick.

"That's not a threat, really, just something we like to do," said Scottish Executive First Minister Jack McConnell.

While wondering if the other nations of the world weren't perhaps making fun of him, a cautious Bush granted approval for most axes, although he rejected the establishment of the Axis of Countries Whose Names End in "Guay," accusing one of its members of filing a false application. Officials from Paraguay, Uruguay, and Chadguay denied the charges.

Israel, meanwhile, insisted it didn't want to join any Axis, but privately, world leaders said that's only because no one asked them.


posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 04:40:50 PM | link

THE WAR PIGS
Robert Higgs writes most intelligently and interestingly in
The Cold War is Over, but U.S. Preparation for It Continues. His conclusions:
After a much-troubled career in the belly of the beast, Ernest Fitzgerald aptly commented that "peacetime military spending has little to do with foreign policy or the world situation . . . it is largely driven by domestic politics" (Fitzgerald 1989, 132). Which is to say, it is driven by a combination of ideology (especially among the fleeced taxpayers) and the self-interest of the millions of people who populate the MICC, for whom jobs, career advancement, reelection to political office and, above all, corporate profits turn on feeding more money into the maw of the MICC.

Such facts of life do not imply that no national security gets produced; it does, even if it gets produced as a by-product and in an outrageously wasteful manner.11 The United States possesses a tremendously wealthy economy. The nation can, and does, sustain huge losses as resources pass through a MICC replete with foolishness, corruption, and cupidity, yet the nation still emerges on the other side of the process as a great power (Sapolsky and Gholz 1999, 43). The present U.S. military establishment is overwhelmingly the most powerful the world has ever known, and it has ample capacity to defend the nation against the military forces of any present or prospective foe in the kind of wars it is dedicated to fighting.

If an enemy should decide to wage a different kind of war, however, such as really serious terrorism, the armed forces are not configured to deal with that kind of threat (Kelley 2001); "the most powerful weapons available to them, including specifically the heavy ones which account for the bulk of their budgets, are entirely useless" against such a threat (Creveld 1999, 400), and everyone appreciates that the public-relations noises the Pentagon makes about anti-terrorism activities are not intended to be taken seriously by those in the know. The system has no constituency for the nitty-gritty, low-tech activity that an effective anti-terrorism program would call for, such as the maintenance of a massive global corps of unsavory informants on the ground; there's no money in it for Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and the rest of the boys. But if you want to talk about a Star Wars system that stretches from here to Mars, hey, let's talk!

In other words, follow the money all the way to the Carlyle Group.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 04:35:00 PM | link

JAPAN DRAGS DOWN WORLD?
Forbes tells of the economic situation in Japan, i.e. grim and getting grimmer.
"The world is heading for a once-in-a-century economic crisis," says Ryoji Musha, a strategist for Deutsche Bank in Japan.

How so? Consider the notion that, with perhaps $11 trillion in savings, the Japanese have enough wealth to cope. It sounds as if they do--until you realize that the total on- and off-balance-sheet claims on the household, corporate and government sectors in Japan are about $30 trillion, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs. That sum is six times Japan's $5 trillion GDP. (The total of U.S. public and private debt is $19 trillion, two times GDP.)

Those ratios in Japan are being made worse month by month, year by year, by deflation, which at perhaps 4% annually in Japan (measured in consumer prices) is the most pronounced in the world. Deflation aggravated the Depression in the U.S. in the 1930s. And it can spread. Cheap Toyotas are already putting pressure on U.S. auto prices. What if Japan devalued the yen, taking it from 133 to the dollar to 140 or 150 These Toyotas would then be even cheaper for U.S. customers. Robert Jay Pelosky, the chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, says: "This would send a price shock into the U.S. and Europe at a time when we [the U.S. and Europe] are flirting with deflation."

At the same time Japan faces a debt bomb at home, it is also the world's largest creditor. If its banks were panicked into calling in overseas loans, by, say, a run on deposits, an economic contraction would sweep America and the globe.

The really scary part is the final line in the article, which is meant to offer hope.
The world can only hope that when George W. Bush visits this month, he will focus those Japanese minds.

posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 04:04:47 PM | link

AND ISLAM IS EVIL?
A
USA Today item tells of the deeds of one of the "good" religions.
Cardinal Bernard Law on Friday said records that have already led to allegations of child sex abuse against 80 priests would be "combed and combed again" in upholding the Boston Archdiocese's promise to uncover past accusations.

Speaking at Logan Airport after returning from the Vatican, Law said he was saddened that some priests who should have previously been removed have remained active. There are 930 priests in the archdiocese.


posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 03:55:12 PM | link

HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH DISSECTS ADMINISTRATION PROPAGANDA
In
a letter to Condaleeza "All Those Ragheads Look the Same to Me" Rice, Human Rights Watch dissects each of the Bush Cabal's deliberate, self-serving misreadings of the Geneva Convention. The Cabal is also ignoring every applicable precedent in another predictable show of supreme arrogance.
Argument: The Geneva Conventions do not apply to a war against terrorism.

HRW Response: The U.S. government could have pursued terrorist suspects by traditional law enforcement means, in which case the Geneva Conventions indeed would not apply. But since the U.S. government engaged in armed conflict in Afghanistan - by bombing and undertaking other military operations - the Geneva Conventions clearly do apply to that conflict. By their terms, the Geneva Conventions apply to "all cases of declared war or of any other armed conflict which may arise between two or more of the High Contracting Parties." Both the United States and Afghanistan are High Contracting Parties of the Geneva Conventions.

Argument: A competent tribunal is unnecessary because there is no "doubt" that the detainees fail to meet the requirements of Article 4(A)(2) for POW status.

HRW response: Article 5 requires the establishment of a competent tribunal only "[s]hould any doubt arise" as to whether a detainee meets the requirements for POW status contained in Article 4. The argument has been made that the detainees clearly do not meet one or more of the four requirements for POW status contained in Article 4(A)(2) - that they have a responsible command, carry their arms openly, wear uniforms with distinct insignia, or conduct their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war. However, under the terms of Article 4(A)(2), these four requirements apply only to militia operating independently of a government's regular armed forces - for example, to those members of al-Qaeda who were operating independently of the Taliban's armed forces. But under Article 4(A)(1) these four requirements do not apply to "members of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict as well as members of militia ... forming part of such armed forces." That is, this four-part test would not apply to members of the Taliban's armed forces, since the Taliban, as the de facto government of Afghanistan, was a Party to the Geneva Convention. The four-part test would also not apply to militia that were integrated into the Taliban's armed forces, such as, perhaps, the Taliban's "55th Brigade," which we understand to have been composed of foreign troops fighting as part of the Taliban.

Administration officials have repeatedly described the Guantanamo detainees as including both Taliban and al-Qaeda members. A competent tribunal is thus needed to determine whether the detainees are members of the Taliban's armed forces (or an integrated militia), in which case they would be entitled to POW status automatically, or members only of al-Qaeda, in which case they probably would not be entitled to POW status because of their likely failure to meet the above-described four-part test. Until a tribunal makes that determination, Article 5 requires all detainees to be treated as POWs.

Argument: Even members of the Taliban's armed forces should not be entitled to POW status because the Taliban was not recognized as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.

HRW response: As Article 4(A)(3) of the Third Geneva Convention makes clear, recognition of a government is irrelevant to the determination of POW status. It accords POW status without qualification to "[m]embers of regular armed forces who profess allegiance to a government or an authority not recognized by the detaining power." That is, the four-part test of Article 4(A)(2) applies only to militia operating independently of a government's armed forces, not to members of a recognized (Article 4(A)(1)) or unrecognized (Article 4(A)(3)) government's armed forces. Thus, whether a government is recognized or not, members of its armed forces are entitled to POW status without the need to meet the four-part test.

This reading of the plain language of Article 4 is consistent with sound policy and past U.S. practice. As a matter of policy, it would undermine the important protections of the Third Geneva Convention if the detaining power could deny POW status by simply withdrawing or withholding recognition of the adversary government. Such a loophole would swallow the detailed guarantees of the Third Geneva Conventions - guarantees on which U.S. and allied troops rely if captured in combat. This reading is also consistent with past U.S. practice. During the Korean War, the United States treated captured Communist Chinese troops as POWs even though at the time the United States (and the United Nations) recognized Taipei rather than Beijing as the legitimate government of China.

Argument: Treating the detainees as POWs would force the United States to repatriate them at the end of the conflict rather than prosecuting them for their alleged involvement in terrorist crimes against Americans.

HRW response: POW status provides protection only for the act of taking up arms against opposing military forces. If that is all a POW has done, then repatriation at the end of the conflict would indeed be required. But as Article 82 explains, POW status does not protect detainees from criminal offenses that are applicable to the detaining powers' soldiers as well. That is, if appropriate evidence can be collected, the United States would be perfectly entitled to charge the Guantanamo detainees with war crimes, crimes against humanity, or other violations of U.S. criminal law - more than enough to address any act of terrorism against Americans - whether or not a competent tribunal finds some of the detainees to be POWs. As Article 115 of the Third Geneva Convention explains, POWs detained in connection with criminal prosecutions are entitled to be repatriated only "if the Detaining Power [that is, the United States] consents."

Argument: Treating the detainees as POWs would preclude the interrogation of people alleged to have information about possible future terrorist acts.

HRW response: This is perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of the Third Geneva Convention. Article 17 provides that POWs are obliged to give only their name, rank, serial number, and date of birth. Failure to provide this information subjects POWs to "restriction" of their privileges. However, nothing in the Third Geneva Convention precludes interrogation on other matters; the Convention only relieves POWs of the duty to respond. Whether or not POW status is granted, interrogators still face the difficult problem of encouraging hostile detainees to provide information, with only limited tools available for the task. Article 17 states that torture and other forms of coercion cannot be used for this purpose in the case of POWs. But the same is true for all detainees, whether held in time of peace or war. (See, e.g., Article 2 of the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman, or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, which the U.S. has ratified: "No exceptional circumstance whatsoever, whether a state of war or a threat of war, internal political instability or any other public emergency, may be invoked as a justification of torture." See also Articles 4 and 5, making violation of this rule a criminal offense of universal jurisdiction.)

Article 17 of the Third Geneva Convention provides that POWs shall not be "exposed to any unpleasant or disadvantageous treatment of any kind" for their refusal to provide information beyond their name, rank, serial number, and date of birth. That would preclude, for example, threats of adverse treatment for failing to cooperate with interrogators, but it would not preclude classic plea bargaining - that is, the offer of leniency in return for cooperation - or other incentives. Plea bargaining and related incentives have been used repeatedly with success to induce cooperation from members of such other violent criminal enterprises such as the mafia or drug traffickers. These would remain powerful tools for dealing with the Guantanamo detainees even if a competent tribunal finds some of them to be POWs.

Argument: The detainees are highly dangerous and thus should not be entitled to the more comfortable conditions of detention required for POWs.

HRW response: In light of the two prisoner uprisings in Afghanistan, we do not doubt that at least some of the Guantanamo detainees might well be highly dangerous. Nothing in the Geneva Conventions precludes appropriate security precautions. But if some of the detainees are otherwise entitled to POW status, the Conventions do not allow them to be deprived of this status because of their feared danger. Introducing unrecognized exceptions to POW status, particularly when done by the world's leading military power, would undermine the Geneva Conventions as a whole. That would hardly be in the interest of the United States, since it is all too easy to imagine how that precedent will come back to haunt U.S. or allied forces. Enemy forces who might detain U.S. or allied troops would undoubtedly follow the U.S. lead and devise equally creative reasons for denying POW protections.


posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 03:45:48 PM | link

AND TWO CHICKENS IN EVERY POT
"The reign of tears is over. The slums will soon be a memory. We will turn out prisons into factories and our jails into storehouses and corncribs. Men will walk upright now, women will smile and children will laugh. Hell will be forever for rent."
These were the words of Reverend Billy Sunday upon the passage of the Volstead Act in 1920, i.e. the start of prohibition. Mike Gray's
Drug Crazy: How We Got Into This Mess and How We Can Get Out provides the reality behind that fantasy.
In the first year of Prohibition, crime leaped 24 percent in the nation's major cities, and before the decade was over the criminal justice system would be overwhelmed. The federal caseload tripled and civil cases were brushed aside to make room for the flood of alcohol offenders. Drowning in the flow, judges began offering "bargain days" where a whole courtroom full of suspects would be allowed to plead guilty in return for a small fine. The federal prison system was operating at 170 percent and the cost to the taxpayers was about to increase by an order of magnitude.
...
Prohibition enforcement tarred every institution it touched - Coast Guard, Customs, Treasury, Justice - and local cops and sheriffs in cities and counties all over the country. An officer could triple his annual income in a single day just by looking the other way. By 1929, one out of four federal agents had been dismissed for charges ranging from bribery, extortion, conspiracy, and embezzlement to drinking the evidence and submission of false reports.
...
The Volstead Act also produced alarming changes in drinking patterns. Beer consumption dropped dramatically, but the sale of hard liquor doubled. Here was another law of the smuggling trade at work: you have to put the maximum bang in the smallest possible package. Beer is bulky. Whiskey is compact and easier to conceal.
...
Confronted with the ongoing failure of law enforcement, the prohibitionists demanded more of it - tougher judges, harsher sentences, more draconian punishment. By 1929 the penalties had been ratcheted up by a factor of ten. You could now get five years and a $10,000 fine for selling one drink. The enforcement budget was tripled, more agents were hired, the Fourth Amendment was practically set aside - and still it came, an unstoppable wellspring of booze flowing from breweries in basements, and from breweries that covered acres operating at full tilt with the complete cooperation of local officials, and from three hundred thousand private stills spread all over the country. A man who paddled his canoe the length of the Mississippi in the late 1920s said the scent of fermenting mash was in the wind from the headwaters of Lake Itasca to the dock at New Orleans.
Is any of this sounding familiar? And the really fun part about drinking habits changing from beer to hard liquor is that just the opposite change had occurred from the mid-1800s to the start of Prohibition.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 03:02:57 PM | link

WHY SHARON IS A WAR CRIMINAL
A Dutch doctor who was there
tells of the 1982 Sabra and Shatila massacre, and who was responsible.
Intissar cries out for justice. 2000 innocent people cry out for justice. It would give satisfaction, if Sharon -on a visit to Europe- would be arrested and transferred to Scheveningen prison. Am I being too cynical when I say that Europe is failing when it comes to putting Israeli war criminals on trial? And am I too pessimistic when I say that Sabra and Shatila was neither the first, nor the last war crime committed by Ariel Sharon?

posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 11:37:29 AM | link

BUSH I AND SADDAM
That evil commie liberal rag
Stars and Stripes details all the goodies given to Saddam Hussein by Reagan and Bush I.
On Oct. 3, 1989, after assuming a host of covert Reagan-era arrangements with Iraq that were intended to "balance" the Arab country against fundamentalist Iran, President George Bush signed National Security Directive 26 (NSD-26) "U.S. Policy Toward the Persian Gulf." With regard to Iraq, the Top Secret directive stated: "The United States should propose economic and political incentives for Iraq to moderate its behavior and to increase our influence."

Reconstruction of Iraq's economy after eight years of war with Iran, particularly in its oil sector, was seen as a way of securing "a U.S. foothold in a potentially large export market." Saddam's nuclear, biological and chemical weapons ambitions were recognized irritants, but the administration thought commercial incentives would be more attractive to Saddam than political ambitions.

By April 1990, when the Iraqi leader thrust himself into the public limelight, announcing that Iraq would "make the fire eat up half of Israel," the Bush administration had made quite an investment. The CIA reported that month that "U.S. purchases of Iraqi oil have jumped from about 80,000 barrels per day [b/d] in 1985-1987 to 675,000 b/d so far in 1990 -- about 24 percent of Baghdad's total oil exports and eight percent of new U.S. oil imports." Iraq had become America's number two trading partner in the Arab world, and was the largest importer of American-grown rice. The Department of Energy had even purchased Iraqi oil for use in the strategic petroleum reserve for a future war.

Yet there was also mounting congressional pressure to impose economic sanctions on Iraq because of its human rights record, its weapons of mass destruction programs and its increasingly hostile policy. Intelligence specialists wrote of the country's increasingly precarious financial position, and there were enormous financial improprieties in Iraqi dealings, leading the Agriculture Department to recommend a cut-off of Iraqi loans, as was mandated by law.

But the Bush White House would have none of it. In May, National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft personally asked Agriculture Secretary Clayton Yeutter to stop any public announcement of a suspension. Yeutter then overruled the Agriculture official administering the program.

Administration spokesmen and apologists would later argue that their Iraq policy had not contributed to the very capabilities American servicemen and women would soon be facing. It is an argument that can hardly be accepted. The Reagan and Bush administrations had authorized $5.08 billion in loan guarantees to Iraq between 1983 and 1990. Investigators later found that the Italian-owned Banco Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL) issued another $4.5 billion in unauthorized loans, $1 billion of which were guaranteed by the Department of Agriculture. Between 1985 and 1990, the Commerce Department approved 771 licenses for dual-use technology exports to Iraq, of which 82 went directly to Iraqi military-related establishments. Fifteen times between 1983 and 1990, the U.S. government waived restrictions to allow items that appeared on the State Department's restricted "Munitions List" to be exported to Saddam. The United States might not have armed Saddam, but it freed up resources that effectively achieved the same goal.


posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 11:22:20 AM | link

THE EMPIRE STRETCHES
Taxpayers will be digging deeper for yet another permanent U.S. military presence in oil land, according to the
Times of India.
The United States, whose troops and equipment are already stationed in three Pakistani air bases, is pressuring Islamabad to allow long-term military presence in the region and seeking a military base near Dalbandin and Pasni in Baluchistan, media reports said.

"The US is believed to be eyeing the development of a military base in the vicinity of Dalbandin and Pasni .... close to Gwadar port which Pakistan is developing with Chinese cooperation," the Hong Kong based Asia Times reported.

Quoting diplomatic sources, it said the Pentagon was "aggresively pushing this proposal despite strong apprehensions, reservations and initial refusal by the Pakistani military establishment, which is willing to cooperate in all practical terms without doling out a permanent military base".

And if Pakistan balks at allowing the permanent foreign military presence on its soil, then the Bush Cabal might suddenly find a cure for the amnesia keeping them from remembering who's harboring evil terrorists.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 10:38:26 AM | link

PAKISTAN GETS MORE WEAPONS
Fox reports of a military agreement between the U.S. and Pakistan that basically rescinds all the controls put in place after "evil" Pakistan tested nukes in 1998. There's no indication whether "good" Pakistan has even been asked if it's sheltering or providing aid to Al-Qaeda terrorists, though.
The agreement, which provides for reciprocal support in various fields, marks a major step in enhancing military contacts between the two countries. After Pakistan tested nuclear devices in 1998, the United States imposed a variety of sanctions on Pakistan.

Most have been lifted after Pakistan ended its support of the former Taliban regime in Afghanistan and joined the U.S.-led coalition against terrorism.
...
Military cooperation is among the topics Musharraf is expected to discuss in Washington. He took power in a 1999 military coup and remains commanding general of the Pakistani armed forces.

The Pakistanis hope to expand cooperation in such areas as military sales and training.

There's also no indication of when or even whether the general is going to hold the sort of democratic elections routinely demanded of and held up as proof of the insidiousness of "evil" regimes.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 10:26:46 AM | link

DEATH CAMP IN SHEBARGHAN
An
Independent item tells of prisoners far worse off than those being held at balmy Club Rumsfeld in Guantanamo Bay.
The Independent on Sunday has learnt that the Pentagon has "washed its hands" of Shebarghan jail in northern Afghanistan, which it helped to operate and where it interrogated many of its prisoners. It is now hoping that humanitarian groups and charities will step in and improve the conditions at the jail, where 3,300 prisoners are squeezed together in grossly overcrowded, unsanitary cells, and where many have already died from disease.

An inspection team from the Boston-based Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) visited the prison recently and declared it "a quiet atrocity". Their report portrayed an institution where there was no running water and little food or medicine. Up to 110 men were being held in cells designed for no more than 15.

Until the middle of last month, the US helped to operate the prison along with General Abdul Rashid Dostum, the warlord who is now deputy defence minister in the interim Afghan administration. A number of the prisoners - most of whom were captured after the fall of the northern city of Kunduz - were taken to Kandahar or Guantanamo Bay in Cuba for further questioning.

But despite the appalling conditions at the prison, the US says it is no longer having anything to do with it, even though it claims the right to return to interview other prisoners. Leonard Rubenstein, executive director of PHR, said: "The information is that the Pentagon is doing nothing for the conditions at the prison. That is a decision that has been taken at four-star general level. They are not taking responsibility for that prison." The group has argued that under the Geneva Conditions the US still has responsibility for conditions at the jail. "This obligation exists irrespective [of] whether the US physically captured the prisoners, whether it currently has custody of them, or whether the detained individuals are considered prisoners of war of the US," it says in its report.

The Bush Cabal obviously thinks no U.S. troops will be taken prisoner en masse during any of its present or future adventures, so there's no incentive for the rules of the Geneva Convention to be followed. And given that the Powell Doctrine doesn't allow risky incursions in the first place, there won't be any such incentives for the foreseeable future, so look for further reports of such gulags.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 10:19:47 AM | link

RUMSPEAK FILTERS DOWN
A
BBC item illustrates how the dissemination patterns of Rumsfeld are filtering down to the lower ranks. Some of those not immediately (and wrongly) killed in the night raids in Oruzgan are saying they were beaten by the U.S. troops, who had mistaken them for members of the Taleban. Here's the statement by U.S. army spokesman A. C. Roper when asked about the allegations:
"However, we are extremely pleased with the quality of care provided to the detainees. Any accusations of excessive force are not consistent with the humane treatment our forces provide."
Note the lack of a denial of the specific allegations. The supposed denial is nothing more than a steaming pile of mush-mouthed Rumspeak designed for purposes of plausible deniability.
posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 10:03:19 AM | link

SHOCKED I AM!!
Boy howdy, I sure didn't see
this one coming.
The Pakistani President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, and the Afghan interim leader, Mr Hamid Karzai, agreed yesterday that their two countries should develop "mutual brotherly relations" and co-operate "in all spheres of activity" - including a proposed gas pipeline from Central Asia to Pakistan via Afghanistan.
...
Mr Karzai, who arrived in Islamabad earlier yesterday for a one-day visit, said he and Gen Musharraf discussed the proposed Central Asian gas pipeline project "and agreed that it was in the interest of both countries". Pakistan and several multinational companies, including the California-based Unocal Corp and Bridas S.A. of Argentina, have been toying with the idea of constructing a 1,600-km pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to growing natural gas markets in Pakistan and, potentially, India. But the project has failed to materialise because of the civil war in Afghanistan and the reluctance of the financial institutions to finance it.

posted by Steven Baum 2/11/2002 09:56:27 AM | link


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