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Ethel the Blog
Observations (and occasional brash opining) on science, computers, books, music and other shiny things that catch my mind's eye. There's a home page with ostensibly more permanent stuff. This is intended to be more functional than decorative. I neither intend nor want to surf on the bleeding edge, keep it real, redefine journalism or attract nyphomaniacal groupies (well, maybe a wee bit of the latter). The occasional cheap laugh, raised eyebrow or provocation of interest are all I'll plead guilty to in the matter of intent. Bene qui latuit bene vixit.

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Friday, October 26, 2001

WHY IS TERRORIST SUPPORTER PAKISTAN OUR NEW SPECIAL FRIEND?
I've been wondering why Pakistan, which helped set up the Taliban in Afghanistan and which harbors terrorists who've killed 20,000 over the last decade in Kashmir and India, is being given "special buddy" status. I've of course suspected that black gold has something to do with it, and an article at
WorldOil confirms this.
Pakistan's Privatization Commission will extend a deadline for the submission of bids for minority government stakes in nine oil and gas licenses, a spokesman for U.K.-based global petroleum consultancy Gaffney, Cline & Associates said Thursday.

The bid submission deadline was extended due to the prevailing security situation in Pakistan, he said.

GCA and U.S. investment banker J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) are advising the Pakistani Privatization Commission on the sale of the government's direct working interest in the nine oil and gas licenses.

The deadline for submission of bids had been set for Oct. 12. "As of today (Thursday) there is no new deadline date for the submission of bids, but it's reasonable to say the interest is still to go ahead (with a bidding round). It's a question of monitoring the situation in Pakistan and coming up with a new date," he said.

A new submission deadline date is expected to be announced by either the Privatization Commission, or GCA.

In late July, the Privatization Commission said 15 local and international oil companies had expressed an interest in buying minority government stakes in the nine licenses.


posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 05:09:31 PM | link

MORE SCALPEL-LIKE HITS TO DENY
The
Sidney Morning Herald reports of more "collateral damage" due to "smart bombs" apparently not scrubbing up well enough before surgery. Look forward to Rumsfeld claiming that the warehouses were right next to strategic Taliban positions (e.g. someone in the Taliban walked by holding a gun sometime in the previous year), and that why do you think we call them the "Red" Cross anyway.
Three Red Cross warehouses in Kabul were in flames yesterday after renewed air attacks by the United States.

"It has happened again," said Mario Musa, a spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross. "At 11:30am (Afghan time) huge explosions took place and three of our warehouses are on fire now."

There was no immediate report of casualties, and because it was a Friday holiday he hoped only a few people would be in the warehouses, which housed essential food supplies, tents, tarpaulins, blankets and other aid supplies.

US bombs hit Red Cross warehouses in Kabul ten days earlier.


posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 04:47:10 PM | link

ANTHRAX NEWS
Debora MacKenzie of the
New Scientists cuts through much of the propaganda about the recent anthrax attacks.
The bacteria used for the anthrax attacks in the US is either the strain the US itself used to make anthrax weapons in the 1960s, or close to it. It is not a strain that Iraq, or the former Soviet Union, mass-produced for weapons.

There have been charges over the past week that the sophistication of the anthrax suggests that it was produced with the backing of some government, such as Iraq. But neither the strain nor the physical form of the anthrax is particularly sophisticated, say bioweapons specialists.
...
As for the size of the anthrax particles used in the attacks, they were reportedly milled down to a few micrometeres, optimal for inhalation. This has been cited as evidence of state involvement.

But "you can use readily available equipment to do this," says [Ken] Alibek [for mer deputy head of the Soviet bioweapons program]. "It isn't rocket science." The attacks have caused relatively few inhalation cases so far, which suggests that the spores were not blended with anti-caking chemicals to promote airborne spread, which Alibek calls the real secret of weaponizing anthrax. He suspects the attackers don't have much material to work with.


posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 04:39:56 PM | link

RELIGIOUS ZEALOTS FOUGHT LIKE MANIACS
In a shocking revelation, Michael Smith in the
Daily Torygraph reveals how U.S. troops were completely surprised as those who've been referred to for nearly two months as fanatical religious zealouts "fought back like maniacs" when they were attacked.
THE American troops who took part in last Friday's raids inside Afghanistan encountered far heavier opposition than they expected, forcing commanders to call in the SAS for future missions.

The "cosmetic" raids were designed to provide a show of something happening on the ground, both for the psychological impact on the Taliban and to appease a US public increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of the war.

Targets were selected because they were thought to be poorly defended and could be easily filmed to demonstrate that ground troops could go where they wanted.

But the soldiers from Delta Force, the US equivalent of the SAS, and the US Rangers were stunned by the resistance they met and had to get out sooner than expected, Pentagon sources said.

"The raid was a success from the intelligence point of view," one said. "We got lots of intelligence. But our men were surprised by the amount of resistance they ran into.

"The speed with which the Taliban launched a counter-attack came as a bit of a shock. They fought like maniacs, we didn't expect that. Intelligence got it wrong."
...

I certainly hope they "got lots of intelligence." They're going to need a whole lot more than they've shown so far, from the Commander in Chief on down. In the words of a seer from the late 70s:
This ain't no party!
This ain't no disco!
This ain't no fooling around!

posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 04:17:40 PM | link

TOTAL MEDIA ACQUIESCENCE
Sam Smith at
Progressive Review illustrates how total the media acquiescence to the Anti-Terrorism Bill has been.
ON NPR'S DIANE REHM SHOW, her pet media analysts mumbled incoherently about the actual contents of the law and then joked about the possibility that the FBI might send suspects to Israel or Arab counties to be tortured. One declared that "there have to be vast compromises with the rights" of Americans. Rehm, for her part, saw nothing wrong with all this and referred to those opposing the law as "civil liberties activists." Someone should explain to her that the correct term for people who support the U.S. Constitution is "American." . . . FOX NEWS was even more casual about the bill promoting an upcoming report from the White House on legislation under which "your rights as a citizen will undergo a huge change" and then, without a beat, switching topics to, "And now for some comic relief . . ."
Even on supposedly ultra-liberal NPR we have a talk show host seriously referring to those opposed to the emasculation of the Constitution as "civil rights activists." A six pack of your choice to the first person who finds an instance of those opposed to the bill being referred to as a "special interest group."
posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 04:04:12 PM | link

EXPIRATION DATE UNKNOWN
Declan McCullagh reveals the truth behind the propaganda about all the controversial provisions of the Anti-Terrorism Bill expiring in four years, as if even four years were a good thing.
Legislators who sent a sweeping anti-terrorism bill to President Bush this week proudly say that the most controversial surveillance sections will expire in 2005.

Senate Judiciary chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont) said that a four-year expiration date "will be crucial in making sure that these new law enforcement powers are not abused." In the House, Bob Barr (R-Georgia) stressed that "we take very seriously the sunset provisions in this bill."

But the Dec. 2005 expiration date embedded in the USA Act -- which the Senate approved 98 to 1 on Thursday -- applies only to a tiny part of the mammoth bill.

After the president signs the measure on Friday, police will have the permanent ability to conduct Internet surveillance without a court order in some circumstances, secretly search homes and offices without notifying the owner, and share confidential grand jury information with the CIA.

Also exempt from the expiration date are investigations underway by Dec. 2005, and any future investigations of crimes that took place before that date.
...

I may move to Wisconsin just so I can vote for Russ Feingold.
posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 03:59:24 PM | link

ACLU UPDATES OF ANTI-CONSTITUTION BILL
The
ACLU has nine updated guides to the provisions of the Anti-Terrorism Bill just signed into law by the Shrub.

How the Terrorism Bill ...

Feel all warm and snuggly yet?
posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 03:44:04 PM | link

LEISURETOWN UPDATES!
Hot freaking diggity! There's all sorts of new stuff at
Leisuretown.
posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 03:35:58 PM | link

BIN LADEN SHUFFLING OFF SOON, MORTAL COIL-WISE
The latest Evil of the Century of the Week is dying of kidney failure, according to Reuters (via
Progressive Review):
Exiled Saudi Arabian dissident Osama bin Laden is dying of kidney failure, according to a published report. Asia Week, quoting a Western intelligence source who has been tracking him, said in its latest edition the kidney disease had begun to affect bin Laden's liver and associates were trying to obtain a dialysis machine to stabilize his condition . . . The weekly news magazine said bin Laden, 45, who is in Afghanistan, remained mostly conscious and was able to talk and hold meetings. But the man is dying, Asia Week quoted the source as saying.
What a rude bastard! He's going to deprive New Oceania of a badly needed PR spectacle.
posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 03:30:34 PM | link

ON KILLING
A review of Dave Grossman's
On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society on Amazon is provocative in several ways, not the least of which is the acceptance of Skinnerian behavioral conditioning as a matter of useful fact.
I read this book and I review it here not because of any particular interest in sanctioned killing, rather because of my interest in institutional means of getting people to do difficult yet important tasks. I train salespeople and other business leaders.

I first heard the author, Dave Grossman, on a radio interview promoting this book. I heard him say that that in the history of combat from Alexander the Great through World War II only about 15% of soldiers in battle were trying to kill the enemy. He's not talking about the long administrative and logistical tail of the army. Only 15-20% of the people with guns or swords in their hands, facing an enemy trying to harm them, were willing to kill that enemy. I know this is hard to believe. I first heard this statistic from a pacifist and I called him a liar. Then I heard it from this author, a former US Army Colonel and military historian, who references the research of the US Army's official W.W.II historian as well as many other scholars.

Once one accepts this fact, two questions immediately present themselves: "Why?" and "What to do about it?" The first question is easy: most humans have a deep and strong taboo against looking a person in the face and destroying them. Many would literally rather die than cross that line. The second question is more complex and hugely interesting.

Clearly, if only 15% of the assets you have expensively brought to face an enemy are performing, your army has a major problem. The US Army raised this traditional firing rate from 15% up to 50% between W.W.II and the Korean conflict and again to better than 95% in Vietnam and Desert Storm. The British similarly increased their firing rate, to devastating effect in the Falklands against Argentines still performing at traditional levels. All modern militaries have since solved the problem. How?

The low firing rates have been cured by the new ways modern militaries train and lead soldiers. This is where my interest as a trainer of business leaders and salespeople is piqued. I have long noted that the biggest problem with most sales people is that they will not do the uncomfortable or unfamiliar things necessary to make more sales faster. It is not a knowledge problem, it is a performance problem. I figured that if the Army could get most ordinary men to pull the trigger, similar methods ought to get most typical salespeople to dial the telephone.

Grossman reports five factors which influence (determine?) the likelihood of a person to kill: Predisposition of Killer, Attractiveness of Target, Distance from Target, Group Absolution, and Demands of Authority.

Many of these factors were well understood and widely practiced in the days of 15% firing ratios. This may be how armies got beyond relying on the 2% of the population willing to kill in combat without dramatic prompting or remorse. A huge gap in combat performance remained because, "When people become angry, or frightened, they stop thinking with their forebrain (the mind of a human being) and start thinking with their midbrain (which is indistinguishable from the mind of an animal). They are literally "scared out of their wits." The only thing that has any hope of influencing the midbrain is also the only thing that influences a dog: classical and operant conditioning." [p. xviii] The big change came when the US Army began, perhaps unintentionally, to incorporate the behaviors demonstrated by Pavlov and B. F. Skinner and made training much more realistic, repetitive, and rewarding.

"World War II-era training was conducted on a grassy firing range..., on which the soldier shot at a bull's-eye target. After he fired a series of shots the target was checked, and he was then given feedback that told him where he hit.

"Modern training ... comes as close to simulating actual combat conditions as possible. The soldier stands in a foxhole with full combat equipment, and man-shaped targets pop up briefly in front of him. These are the eliciting stimuli that prompt the target behavior of shooting. If the target is hit, it immediately drops, thus providing immediate feedback. Positive reinforcement is given when these hits are exchanged for marksmanship badges... Traditional marksmanship training has been transformed into a combat simulator." [p. 177]

And the citizen soldier has been transformed into a reliable killing machine: "When I went to boot camp and did individual combat training they said if you walk into an ambush what you want to do is just do a right face - you just turn right or left, whichever way the fire is corning from, and assault. I said, 'Man, that's crazy. I'd never do anything like that. It's stupid.' The first time we came under fire, ... in Laos, we did it automatically. Just like you look at your watch to see what time it is. We done a right face, assaulted the hill -- a fortified position with concrete bunkers emplaced, machine guns, automatic weapons -- and we took it. And we killed - I'd estimate probably thirty-five North Vietnamese soldiers in the assault, and we only lost three killed." [p. 317]

Contrast that with the report of a commander in W.W. II: "Squad leaders and platoon sergeants had to move up and down the firing line kicking men to get them to fire. We felt like we were doing good to get two or three men out of a squad to fire." [p. xiv] Sounds a lot like what I hear from sales managers. Perhaps because salespeople, like soldiers, find they must transgress strong taboos to be successful, for example, intruding on strangers, talking about money, and persisting past, "No," to name only three. The salesperson's taboos are clearly of a lesser import than the soldier's, yet the parallel is strong. Both the soldier and the salesperson suffer when they fail to transcend taboos, even though ignoring them is crucial to success and permission has been granted.

Redesigning a salesperson's training to take advantage of these well demonstrated methods of behavior modification can have a similarly spectacular effect. Another key to enhanced salesperson performance evident from Grossman's work is the value of on-the-job group dynamics. "Numerous studies have concluded that men in combat are usually motivated to fight not by ideology or hate or fear, but by group pressures and processes involving (1) regard for their comrades, (2) respect for their leaders, (3) concern for their own reputation with both, and (4) an urge to contribute to the success of the group." [p. 89] Many sales organizations, by contrast, pit salespeople against each other and minimize the role of sales managers. It is a world of lone wolves, though teamwork and leadership are demonstrated multipliers of effectiveness. How much of a multiplier? Modern armies have faced similarly equipped, by traditionally trained enemies and killed 35 to 50 of their adversaries for each soldier lost. [p. 197] Salespeople trained, organized, and lead on this model can also expect order-of-magnitude improvements.


posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 01:46:14 PM | link

THE LUGANO REPORT
Finally we have a sequel to Report from Iron Mountain. Here are some chunky bits from
Susan George's follow-up to that classic tome.
THE INTENT OF OUR REPORT is not to shock or blaspheme: the fact remains that in earthly affairs, the market, at its broadest and most inclusive, is the closest we are likely to come to the wisdom of the Almighty.

Yes, the market creates suffering for some; its decisions may appear harsh and cruel, but let us not forget the theological parallel to the market according to which `God, supremely good, would never allow that there be evil in His works unless He were so powerful and so good that even from evil He could do good.'1

If capitalism can be said to possess an ontology, an essence, it is surely that the market, in its full sweep and scope, is harmonious and wise. Like God, it too can create good from apparent evil. From destruction it draws the betterment of humankind and the highest possible equilibrium of the whole.

The moment has come to put this ontology to the test. It is time to ask if the beneficiaries of the free market and the liberal system, including the Commissioning Parties, are prepared to accept the seemingly harsh consequences of their beliefs.


posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 11:26:14 AM | link

ON FASCISM
Sam Smith delivers cogently on the other taboo "f"-word.
One of the reasons we have such difficulty perceiving our current conditions is our aversion to this single word: fascism. While there is no hesitation by politicians to draw parallels with the Holocaust to justify whatever foreign adventure appeals to them, or for the media to make similar analogies at the drop of swastika on a wall, we seem only able to understand -- or even mention -- the climax of fascism rather than its genesis. Why this reluctance? Perhaps it is because we are much closer to the latter than to the former.

In any case, it is one of the most dangerous forms of political myopia in which to indulge. Italians, who invented the term fascism, also called it the estato corporativo: the corporatist state. Orwell rightly described fascism as being an extension of capitalism. It is an economy in which the government serves the interests of oligopolies, a state in which large corporations have the powers that in a democracy devolve to the citizen. Today, it is no exaggeration to call our economy corporatist, which has been described by British academics R.E. Pahl and J. T. Winkler as a system in which the government guides privately owned businesses towards order, unity, nationalism and success."

"Let us not mince words, they said. "Corporatism is fascism with a human face." The Nazis had their own word for it: wehrwirtschaft, semantically linking wehr (for defense, bulwark, weapon) with wirtshaft (for housekeeping, domestic economy, husbandry) to describe an economy based on the assumption of warfare. The concept was not new, however. William Shirer points out in The Rise and the Fall of the Third Reich that 18th and 19th century Prussia devoted 70% of its revenue to the army and "that nation's whole economy was always regarded as primarily an instrument not of the people's welfare but of military policy." In Hitler's Germany even the pogroms were part of national economic planning, seizing Jewish shops and companies and replacing Jewish workers with the Ayrian unemployed.

Hitler argued that "private enterprise cannot be maintained in a democracy," and denounced "the freedom to starve," in a country which had known as many as six million without jobs. Wrote William Shirer, "In taking away that last freedom, Hitler assured himself of the support of the working class."

The link between business and fascism was clear to German corporatists. Auschwitz was not just a way to get rid of Jews, it was also a major source of cheap labor. As Richard Rubenstein points out in The Cunning of History, "I.G. Farben's decision to locate at Auschwitz was based upon the very same criteria by which contemporary multinational corporations relocate their plants in utter indifference to the social consequences of such moves." I.G. Farben invested over a billion dollars in today's money at Auschwitz and, thanks to the endless supply of labor, adopted a policy of deliberately working the Jewish slaves to death. In such ways do economics and freedom become intertwined. Those who think it can't happen here should consider that four days before Mussolini became premier, he met with a group of industrialists and assured them that his aim "was to reestablish discipline within the factories and that no outlandish experiments .... would be carried out." In Friendly Fascism, Bertram Gross notes that Mussolini also won "the friendship, support or qualified approval" of the American ambassador, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Thomas Lamont, many newspapers and magazine publishers, the majority of business journals, and quite a sprinkling of liberals, including some associated with both the Nation and The New Republic. "

Orwell understood fascism. One of the characteristics of his inner party, the ten percent who controlled the rest, was that there was no sexual or racial discrimination. He understood that ethnic eradication, while characteristic of nazism, was not required for fascism. Even earlier, Aldous Huxley set up a similar non-discriminatory dystopia in Brave New World.

In fact, one of the characteristics of the modern propaganda state is the use of ethnic and sexual iconography to cover its tracks. Thus Richard Nixon was slurring Jews in Oval Office conversations even as he set a new record in their high-level appointments. And W.J. Clinton was called our first black president by Toni Morrison even as the government was sending young black males to prison in unprecedented numbers.


posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 10:02:23 AM | link

ON TELEVISING BIN LADEN
Mark Crispin Miller on the idiocy of the Regime's attempts to censor Bin Laden's rants.
In this case, in fact, the White House should have done everything possible to encourage the networks to continue serving us bin Ladin on the rocks. There is, to put it mildly, not much risk that we could be seduced by a performer so fanatical and alien, and so explicitly devoted to our absolute destruction. On the contrary: To see him thanking God for all our suffering and bereavement is to hate him all the more. So honestly infuriating is that sight, moreover, that it serves the useful propaganda purpose of convincing those viewers who might be skeptical about bin Ladin's perfidy if they were merely told about it by the US government. Since 1947, we have been mobilized against so many foreign demons that a thoughtful citizen must be forgiven for becoming just a tad suspicious when called to arms against a new Nicaragua. But Bin Ladin's in-your-face medievalism speaks for itself; every American should get to see it, up close and personal.

posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 09:04:29 AM | link

GLOAT CORNER
Byron York tells the sad tale of the decline and fall of a pathetic Mencken wannabe and his rag. Tyrell, his financial backers, and his acolytes all mistakenly assumed that their hysterical obsession with bringing down Clinton was shared by enough people to make a profit. Thus does capitalism punish those who worship but do not understand it. I can barely hold back the tears.
How that happened is the story of a magazine that was very, very good for most of its life-for years it was one of the few outlets for first-rate conservative writers, and almost every prominent conservative writer today contributed to it at some time or another-but that in the 1990s lost touch with what had made it so good. A few conservatives-Tyrrell was prominent among them-became possessed by a self-destructive brand of opposition to Bill Clinton, and in their desire to knock the President out of office they ended up hurting themselves more than him. What at first appeared to be an enormous success-after Troopergate the Spectator was a very hot magazine-led to unexpected and calamitous consequences. There was the "Arkansas Project," a $2.4 million effort, financed by the right-wing philanthropist Richard Mellon Scaife, to uncover wrongdoing in Clinton's past, which ultimately led to the investigation of the Spectator itself. There was financial ruin, brought about by the magazine's almost naive inability to handle its new wealth. And there was the downfall of Tyrrell, a talented polemicist who craved acceptance in the world of Washington but allowed his obsession with Clinton to ensure that he would become increasingly alienated from that world. For a moment the men who ran The American Spectator believed that it could transcend the limits-small circulation, small budget, an influence limited to elite readers-that define magazines of its type. But in the end the mistakes they made in the flush of success proved that it could not.
Almost as entertaining is techo-fetishist George Gilder's plan to turn the magazine into one about the New Economy ... you know, the one that'll never falter again, that'll see the Dow go up to 50,000 in a matter of months, etc.
posted by Steven Baum 10/26/2001 08:57:51 AM | link

Thursday, October 25, 2001

THE ANTHRAX VACCINE SAGA
From
a presentation by Dr. Meryl Ness at International Public Conference on Vaccination 2000 on Sept. 10, 2000.
Anthrax vaccine was licensed by the Division of Biologic Standards at the National Institutes of Health in 1970, using limited safety data and efficacy data obtained in large part from a different anthrax vaccine.

The FDA began licensing vaccines several years later and at the time anthrax was licensed there was no requirement for demonstrating efficacy in humans. The vaccine was approved for two limited markets, workers exposed to imported animal products, and lab investigators using anthrax. Efficacy was demonstrated for cutaneous anthrax but not for inhalation anthrax in the studies. By the way, you don't need to use a vaccine for cutaneous anthrax as it is not a fatal disease and is easily treated with antibiotics.

This 1960 paper by Brachman et al used a different, earlier vaccine, but this is the only efficacy study of an anthrax vaccine ever published, and has been used subsequently to justify vaccine effectiveness.

A New Hampshire goat hair mill had nine anthrax cases in persons who were not vaccinated. But only ¼ of the mill workers had received the vaccine, and it was found that the vaccinated workers worked in areas of the plant where there were lower spore counts, so they were at lower risk for anthrax than the placebo group.

Two years later the same authors published another evaluation of the vaccine using the same study population but this time included three additional mills. There were a total of 26 cases of anthrax at the four mills during the study. Five cases occurred in persons who had received some doses of vaccine and fifteen cases in persons who received placebo vaccine. Six cases occurred in workers who chose not to participate in the study.

However, the authors now reported that the vaccine was highly effective, and in performing the statistical analysis, they threw out four of the five anthrax cases in vaccinated workers for not having received enough doses of vaccine, to calculate a vaccine effectiveness of 92.5%, rather than an effectiveness of about 65%, had they included the other four cases. This 92.5% statistic, fallacious back in 1962, and generated by an older vaccine, has been used ever since to justify the anthrax vaccine program.
...

From a statement by the same Dr. Nass on Sept. 20, 2001:
If anthrax is used for bioterrorism, the existing vaccine may or may not be effective. In the one human study ever done of any anthrax vacine, the vaccine was about 70% effective at preventing anthrax infections. The current vaccine's effectiveness has not been tested in humans. Although it was 95% effective in monkeys, there are reasons to believe monkeys respond to it better than humans. Antibiotics (doxycycline and ciprofloxacin) prevented anthrax in 80% and 90% of a small number of monkeys. But both antibiotics and vaccines can be defeated using widely known genetic engineering techniques to create resistant anthrax strains, or specially selecting naturally occurring anthrax strains. Cipro is the only antibiotic that has been approved by FDA for use against anthrax, because the manufacturer applied for this indication recently.

Anthrax experts in the past have felt that antibiotics are an excellent prophylactic measure, but that vaccines will add to their protection when given *following* an exposure, based on animal experiments.

Anthrax does NOT spread from person to person. It ONLY affects those who breathe in the spores when first released. There is only a tiny risk from spores that are re-aerosolized later. Therefore, if you are not in the immediate area of release, or in a narrow path where spores of sufficient quantity are carried by the wind (it requires tens of thousands to millions of spores to cause infection) you will not be affected.

The vaccine presently available has caused longlasting medical illness in a significant proportion of those who receive it. All existing doses are currently under quarantine by FDA for manufacturing lapses. Even if FDA decides the bioterrorism risk is real and releases the quarantined vaccine for military or civilian use, the manufacturing lapses and risk of chronic illness *remain*.

If the antibiotics are effective (this depends on the strain of anthrax employed), one has time to consider use of the vaccine afterward. If antibiotics are not effective, then the vaccine may be lifesaving, or may be ineffective. But I suspect that 10-35% of vaccine recipients develop illnesses resembling chronic fatigue syndrome, fibromyalgia, multiple chemical sensitivity, autoimmune illnesses, and/or neuropathies: also known as "Gulf War Syndrome." This is the tradeoff you are making when receiving this vaccine.

One can, however, take antibiotics *in advance of* an attack, and still get their benefit if an anthrax attack were to occur. Personally, I have antibiotics handy, but will use them only if attack apears imminent or has occurred. If vaccine is made available, you will never find me lining up for my dose...by the way, there are six initial doses and then one-two yearly booster shots. Protection, you see, does not come quickly, nor easily.

Although dose recommendations for antibiotic therapy exist, they are theoretical, and do not reflect actual experience in humans. Cephalosporins are the only antibiotic class to which anthrax is naturally resistant. So use a high normal dose for a long duration (1-6 months because ungerminated spores can persist in the lungs longterm and germinate following antibiotic cessation): post exposure, when the organism can be cultured, the recommendations can be refined.

One other theoretical consideration is that doxycycline and cipro have been the recommended drugs for anthrax for a decade, and therefore specific resistance to those two may have been added to enhance virulence. This might lead you to choose a second or even third antibiotic to which the organism is less likely to be resistant.


posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 02:39:59 PM | link

BIOTERRORISM PLAYS
For several years now, a friend and I have been satirizing the business mindset (i.e. bislam) by making reference to "tragedy plays" and the like, in reference to the bizspeak construction "[something] play" used ad nauseaum by the acolytes of War Street. But why bother with satire when you have
reality?
As the fear of anthrax and smallpox intensified during the past two weeks, most stocks have struggled. Fear, after all, is an extremely powerful emotion. But at least one small group of stocks -- so-called bioterrorism plays -- are thriving (greed, apparently, is a pretty powerful emotion too).

Companies that make anthrax-detection kits and those that are working in vaccines have soared since Sept. 10, the eve of the attacks on the World Trade Center. Some of the names in hot demand include Cepheid (up 257 percent), American Access Technologies (up 153 percent) and Nanogen (up 56 percent).

Now that you've got your hot tips for the day, get out there and buy, dammit! If you want a non-tragedy related tip, then buy Cisco and Intel. Their prices are currently insanely low given a realistic view of the near future.
posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 11:38:39 AM | link

IT'S THE OIL, STUPID - PART XXVI
In Michael Klare's
The Geopolitics of War we read about the post-WWII history of U.S.-Saudi relations.
American strategists considered access to oil to be especially important because it was an essential factor in the Allied victory over the Axis powers. Although the nuclear strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki ended the war, it was oil that fueled the armies that brought Germany and Japan to their knees. Oil powered the vast numbers of ships, tanks and aircraft that endowed Allied forces with a decisive edge over their adversaries, which lacked access to reliable sources of petroleum. It was widely assumed, therefore, that access to large supplies of oil would be critical to US success in any future conflicts.

Where would this oil come from? During World Wars I and II, the United States was able to obtain sufficient oil for its own and its allies' needs from deposits in the American Southwest and from Mexico and Venezuela. But most US analysts believed that these supplies would be insufficient to meet American and European requirements in the postwar era. As a result, the State Department initiated an intensive study to identify other sources of petroleum. This effort, led by the department's economic adviser, Herbert Feis, concluded that only one location could provide the needed petroleum. "In all surveys of the situation," Feis noted (in a statement quoted by Daniel Yergin in The Prize), "the pencil came to an awed pause at one point and place--the Middle East."

To be more specific, Feis and his associates concluded that the world's most prolific supply of untapped oil was to be found in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. But how to get at this oil? At first, the State Department proposed the formation of a government-owned oil firm to acquire concessions in Saudi Arabia and extract the kingdom's reserves. This plan was considered too unwieldy, however, and instead US officials turned this task over to the Arabian American Oil Company (ARAMCO), an alliance of major US oil corporations. But these officials were also worried about the kingdom's long-term stability, so they concluded that the United States would have to assume responsibility for the defense of Saudi Arabia. In one of the most extraordinary occurrences in modern American history, President Roosevelt met with King Abd al-Aziz Ibn Saud, the founder of the modern Saudi regime, on a US warship in the Suez Canal following the February 1945 conference in Yalta. Although details of the meeting have never been made public, it is widely believed that Roosevelt gave the King a promise of US protection in return for privileged American access to Saudi oil--an arrangement that remains in full effect today and constitutes the essential core of the US-Saudi relationship.

Incidentally, Yergin's The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power is a must read for anyone wishing to become more than vaguely familiar with the whys and wherefores of oil, the Middle East, and all wars that happen when people named Bush are in the White House.
posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 11:29:57 AM | link

THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX REVISITED
William Hartung provides some interesting history and perspective in
an article about Ike's notorious 1961 remark.
Forty years on, it is surely fitting to look afresh at Eisenhower's warning, and to appraise the present and future of the military-industrial complex. At first glance, Dwight David Eisenhower seemed an unlikely candidate to launch a blistering critique of the military-industrial complex (a phrase coined by Eisenhower's speechwriters Ralph Williams and Malcolm Moos). As a four-star general and a hero of the Allied assault against Hitler, he certainly believed in maintaining a strong military. And although Eisenhower tried to hold the line on military spending, his administration still maintained an annual military budget ranging from $42 billion to $49 billion-three to four times higher than defense spending during the brief postwar demobilization. As the historian Blanche Wiesen Cook has remarked, it is not as if Ike was a raving peacenik: his doctrine of massive nuclear retaliation increased the risk of nuclear war, and his administration's support for coups d'état that helped install repressive regimes in Iran and Guatemala undermined the stability of the Persian Gulf and Central America, even as they tarnished America's reputation as a force for democracy.

Yet in retrospect, it was precisely Eisenhower's martial posture that gave authority to his warning about the growing influence of the military-industrial establishment. As the late Washington columnist Lars Erik-Nelson noted in his last published essay, Eisenhower's speech was not just a rhetorical throwaway meant to steal the thunder of the incoming Kennedy administration: it was deeply felt, grounded in his own bitter experiences.3 In the 1956 elections, conservative Democrats, egged on by officials in the air force, accused Eisenhower of permitting a "bomber gap" by refusing to fund their new B-70 bomber. And in 1960, Richard Nixon, who served eight years as Eisenhower's vice president, was excoriated by his Democratic rival John F. Kennedy for allowing a supposedly dangerous "missile gap" to develop between U.S. and Soviet forces. The bomber gap proved a figment of the fevered imaginations of the weapons boosters, while the missile gap was real enough-though it was a gap that dramatically favored the United States, not the Soviet Union, as hard-line Democrats like Kennedy and Sen. Henry "Scoop" Jackson had maintained.
...
As Sen. John McCain noted during Donald Rumsfeld's confirmation hearings, congressional "add-ons"-weapons systems and construction projects stuck into the budget even though the Pentagon has not requested them-have increased geometrically in the past two decades. When Rumsfeld held office under President Gerald Ford, Congress added $200-300 million a year in home-state "pork" to the defense budget. By the 1990s, McCain asserted, the add-ons had snowballed to some $7 billion annually.

As an example, McCain spotlighted the Lockheed Martin C-130 transport plane, produced in Marietta, Georgia, and shepherded through Congress by heavy hitters from the South-including former Senate Armed Services Committee member Sam Nunn and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. From 1978 to 1998 (according to a report by the General Accounting Office), the air force requested a total of five C-130s, but Congress voted funds for 256 of the aircraft, surely a record in pork-barrel politics.8 McCain complained there were so many excess C-130s that we could afford to park one in "every schoolyard in America." Without missing a beat, or blushing, the next speaker at the same hearing, Democratic senator Max Cleland of Georgia, said he felt compelled to suggest that the excess C-130s were justified since America needed the capability to deploy our schoolyards anywhere in the world on short notice.

Senator Cleland isn't the only lawmaker who thinks bringing home the bacon is a suitable subject for political humor. When a former Georgia senator, Mack Mattingly, was running to regain his former seat in the U.S. Senate, Sen. Trent Lott joined him for a day of campaigning. The GOP Majority Leader said that if Georgia voters picked "good old Mack," he would keep the lucrative F-22 fighter project at Lockheed's Martin Marietta plant, but if they elected a Democrat, production might move to Lott's Mississippi. Given Lott's proclivity for shoveling defense dollars to his own state for everything from a $1.5 billion Marine helicopter carrier to a space-based laser project, it took a moment for Georgians to realize this was a joke. The irony of Lott's remark was heightened by the fact that Mattingly had just completed a stint as paid lobbyist for Lockheed Martin.


posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 11:05:12 AM | link

RICHARD THOMPSON LIVE
That very lucky bastard Chuck over at
Looka! wrote about seeing Richard Thompson live in his October 22 entries. The show was entitled "They Could Have Been Hits: One Thousand Years of Also-Rans" and the program featured the following Thompson prose:
We had great fun last year -- possibly at the expense of the audience -- with our show "One Thousand Years of Popular Music", so I thought something similar might be appropriate this time. Someone paid me the backhanded compliment of declaring that the show did not lack for ambition; I have taken this stinging rebuke somewhat to heart, in spite of the snappy title, we will limit ourselves to a mere nine hundred years of Western musical history.

I feel a kindly service has been performed to the audience in skipping over the heavy moralizing of Saint Godric (eleventh century), and we commence our odyssey with good old "Anon", working our way up to the latter-day troubadours of the twenty-first century. On our journey, we shall pass through moods blithe and troubled, bawdy and sacred. As I am unqualified to sing 90 percent of the music on show, let me stress here that thet songs are intended to be the stars this evening; as fashions change and the baby gets thrown out with the bath water, we forget how appealing some of the old stuff can be.

Bear with me this evening if I try to find a few selections that reflect on recent tragedies -- for the good of my own heart I need to express some thoughts of patriotism, spiritual uplift and human values. I hope you will join in as the mood takes you.

Chuck redeems himself somewhat of the sin of making me grind my teeth in envy by a link to a site where I can snag official Richard Thompson bootlegs. All them sumbitches are gonna be mine very soon.
posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 10:21:00 AM | link

PUZZLING AGITPROP
The Pentagon, who denied having bombed a hospital/senior center/whatever until it was no longer tenable to do so, is now floating another bit of propaganda. According to the
Washington Post:
A senior Pentagon official said today that the United States has obtained credible information indicating that the Taliban, Afghanistan's ruling militia, may try to poison humanitarian food stuff being distributed to starving Afghan civilians and blame the act on the Americans.
If we assume this is true, then those who hear about it will not eat the food and will die of starvation, and some of those who don't hear about it will die of poisoning. If it isn't true, then those who hear about it will not eat the food and will die of starvation, and those who don't will eat the food and probably not die of starvation. Either way, more will die of starvation from not eating the food - assuming that sufficient quantities are being dropped in the first place - because of the Pentagon's claim. That is, the Pentagon is shooting it's own food drop program, which may be not much more than a propaganda ploy in the first place, in the foot with what may be another cynical propaganda ploy.

What next? Stories about how the Taliban are throwing babies out of hospital incubators? About how they're throwing babies in the air and catching them with their bayonets? As long as no propaganda seems to absurd for them, why don't they claim that the Taliban are making baby stew?
posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 09:54:17 AM | link

MILITARY SPENDING
We have to go to the
Hindustani Times to get an overview of the Regime's planned military expenditures in perspective to reality.
US military spending 1999: The U.S. spent more than the next seven leading military powers, combined: $283 billion versus $265 billion.

ive of the next seven leading military powers are U.S. allies. The U.S. spent 2.6 times more on its military than the combined military expenditures of the next nine largest potential adversaries (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Cuba): $283 billion versus $109 billion.

The U.S., NATO, and other U.S. allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, Saudi Arabia) spent five times more on their militaries than the combined expenditures of the next nine largest potential adversaries (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Cuba): $551 billion versus $109 billion.

2000: The U.S. spent a total of about $547 billion for current and past military programmes (includes all military spending cited above, plus mandatory payments to the military retirement system, foreign military financing, sales, aid and training, veterans benefits and services, and the interest paid on the national debt that can be attributed to past wars and military spending.)

2001-02: The U.S. spent $296 billion on the military. In FY01, the U.S. will spend an estimated $299 billion, and for FY02, the President has proposed outlays of $319 billion, to begin with. It is expected that additional funds will be requested for FY01 and FY02 following completion of the Administration's review of U.S. military "needs."

Over the next 10 years, the President's plan calls for spending over $3.5 trillion on the military. This does not include any additional expenditures which he may call for pending completion of the military review.

If enacted, the amount of the increase in military spending for FY02 over FY01 (i.e. $20 billion) will exceed the entire amount that the U.S. government spent on international diplomacy, cooperation, and humanitarian and development assistance in FY01 (i.e. $14 billion).

The President's budget blueprint calls for cutting as yet unspecified programmes in the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy (non-military), Interior, Justice, Labour, Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency in FY02.


posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 09:35:19 AM | link

BURY 'EM DEEP
Another tear-filled opportunity has presented itself to the Regime. The party that argued for 8 years in the media and in the courts that any and all of the sitting president's records should be available for scrutiny is attempting to obtain an indefinite delay past the January 2001 deadline for releasing the papers of a president who's been out of office for over 12 years. An
AP item tells us:
For the third time, the Bush administration has delayed release of 68,000 pages of Ronald Reagan's White House records, including vice presidential papers from President Bush's father.

The papers were to have come out in January, 12 years after Reagan left office as provided under law. The White House delayed the release to June 21, then to the last day in August.

On Friday, White House counsel Alberto Gonzales sought a third extension, this time with no deadline, so the administration can review the records and consult representatives of former presidents Reagan, Bush and Clinton.

The delay in opening the Reagan records "has been necessary for this administration to review the many constitutional and legal questions raised by (the) potential release of sensitive and confidential presidential records," Gonzales wrote in letter to the National Archives sent Friday.

He did not say why this examination was still incomplete, but the letter suggests the additional review will require "a few additional weeks."

One of the nuclear-powered shredding machines must have broken down.
posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 09:25:05 AM | link

BLAME THE IMF
We've heard a lot of noise about the madrasses (i.e. the religious schools in Pakistan) being breeding grounds for terrorism. While it's undoubtedly true that, like most religion-based schools, they don't exactly preach tolerance, there's another question that hasn't been answered or even asked. That is, why are there so many of the madrassas? Isn't there a public education system in Pakistan? There was, but as
Vijay Prashad points out, the IMF's Structural Adjustment Policy (abbreviated, appropriately enough, as SAP) instituted as part of their financial "aid" package (more about which can be found in an interview with Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz) for Pakistan had a very predictable effect on the public sector or, as the IMF puts it, on one of the economic "distortions."
And again, like so much else, the destruction of Pakistani education is not just the fault of a corrupt and unprincipled bourgeoisie. It bears within it at least two other forces. The first agent of change in Pakistan has been the visible hand of the International Monetary Fund. Pakistan is cotton country, with two thirds of its exports tied to this sector, but most of it is low-value added unprocessed cotton or low-count yarn that is sent off to the advanced industrial states for a 19th century style turn around - export cheap raw materials, import expensive finished products. In 1993, Pakistan, abandoned by a general global decline in the profit margins from cotton, turned to the IMF for aid and initiated the Structural Adjustment Policy (SAP) that has now become legendary around the world. A month before the coup of 1999, Nawa Sharif's finance minister Ishaq Dar told the press that "the government has done everything possible. We have provided the conducive environment" for foreign investors. Aggressive acts of neoliberalism became the hallmark of the regime. "Distortions," such as public institutions, came under attack from the IMF and Pakistan's already weak education sector came under fiscal pressure. A weak educational infrastructure moved much of the lower middle class toward private education in the low to moderate cost madrassas. The IMF, then, helped move many of Pakistan's youth to religion.

posted by Steven Baum 10/25/2001 08:32:28 AM | link

Wednesday, October 24, 2001

GOEBBELS' PRINCIPLES OF PROPAGANDA
The following list (via
What Really Happened) is based on the paper "Goebbels' Principles of Propaganda" by Leonard W. Doob, as published in Public Opinion and Propaganda.
  • Propagandist must have access to intelligence concerning events and public opinion.
  • Propaganda must be planned and executed by only one authority.
    • It must issue all the propaganda directives
    • It must explain propaganda directives to important officials and maintain their morale
    • It must oversee other agencies' activities which have propaganda consequences
  • The propaganda consequences of an action must be considered in planning that action.
  • Propaganda must affect the enemy's policy and action.
    • By suppressing propagandistically desirable material which can provide the enemy with useful intelligence
    • By openly disseminating propaganda whose content or tone causes the enemy to draw the desired conclusions
    • By goading the enemy into revealing vital information about himself
    • By making no reference to a desired enemy activity when any reference would discredit that activity
  • Declassified, operational information must be available to implement a propaganda campaign
  • To be perceived, propaganda must evoke the interest of an audience and must be transmitted through an attention-getting communications medium.
  • Credibility alone must determine whether propaganda output should be true or false.
  • The purpose, content and effectiveness of enemy propaganda; the strength and effects of an expose; and the nature of current propaganda campaigns determine whether enemy propaganda should be ignored or refuted.
  • Credibility, intelligence, and the possible effects of communicating determine whether propaganda materials should be censored.
  • Material from enemy propaganda may be utilized in operations when it helps diminish that enemy's prestige or lends support to the propagandist's own objective.
  • Black rather than white propaganda may be employed when the latter is less credible or produces undesirable effects.
  • Propaganda may be facilitated by leaders with prestige.
  • Propaganda must be carefully timed.
    • The communication must reach the audience ahead of competing propaganda.
    • A propaganda campaign must begin at the optimum moment
    • A propaganda theme must be repeated, but not beyond some point of diminishing effectiveness
  • Propaganda must label events and people with distinctive phrases or slogans.
    • They must evoke desired responses which the audience previously possesses
    • They must be capable of being easily learned
    • They must be utilized again and again, but only in appropriate situations
    • They must be boomerang-proof
  • Propaganda to the home front must prevent the raising of false hopes which can be blasted by future events.
  • Propaganda to the home front must create an optimum anxiety level.
    • Propaganda must reinforce anxiety concerning the consequences of defeat
    • Propaganda must diminish anxiety (other than concerning the consequences of defeat) which is too high and which cannot be reduced by people themselves
  • Propaganda to the home front must diminish the impact of frustration.
    • Inevitable frustrations must be anticipated
    • Inevitable frustrations must be placed in perspective
  • Propaganda must facilitate the displacement of aggression by specifying the targets for hatred.
  • Propaganda cannot immediately affect strong counter-tendencies; instead it must offer some form of action or diversion, or both.

posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 03:56:41 PM | link

ISRAEL'S "ETHNIC BOMB"
In an item from 1998 (via
Progressive Reivew) that brings up memories of Robert Heinlein's worst science fiction novel, the Sunday Times tells how Israel is working on a bio-weapon that will selectively kill Arabs.
ISRAEL is working on a biological weapon that would harm Arabs but not Jews, according to Israeli military and western intelligence sources. The weapon, targeting victims by ethnic origin, is seen as Israel's response to Iraq's threat of chemical and biological attacks.
...
In developing their "ethno-bomb", Israeli scientists are trying to exploit medical advances by identifying distinctive genes carried by some Arabs, then create a genetically modified bacterium or virus.

The intention is to use the ability of viruses and certain bacteria to alter the DNA inside their host's living cells. The scientists are trying to engineer deadly micro-organisms that attack only those bearing the distinctive genes.

The programme is based at the biological institute in Nes Tziyona, the main research facility for Israel's clandestine arsenal of chemical and biological weapons.

A scientist there said the task was hugely complicated because both Arabs and Jews are of semitic origin. But he added: "They have, however, succeeded in pinpointing a particular characteristic in the genetic profile of certain Arab communities, particularly the Iraqi people." The disease could be spread by spraying the organisms into the air or putting them in water supplies.

The research mirrors biological studies conducted by South African scientists during the apartheid era and revealed in testimony before the truth and reconciliation commission.
...
The "ethno-bomb" claims have been given further credence in Foreign Report, a Jane's publication that closely monitors security and defence matters. It reports unnamed South African sources as saying Israeli scientists have used some of the South African research in trying to develop an "ethnic bullet" against Arabs.

And thus yet another fun collaboration between Israel and the former racist rulers of South Africa is revealed.
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 03:11:35 PM | link

NARCO DOLLARS FOR DUMMIES
Catherine Austin Fitts releases the first part of
Narco-Dollars for Dummies: How the Money Works in the Illicit Drug Trade. Here's a most interesting excerpt:
Lest you think that my comment about the New York Stock Exchange is too strong, let's look at one event that occurred before our "war on drugs" went into high gear through Plan Colombia, banging heads over narco dollar market share in Latin America.

In late June 1999, numerous news services, including Associated Press, reported that Richard Grasso, Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange flew to Colombia to meet with a spokesperson for Raul Reyes of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC), the supposed "narco terrorists" with whom we are now at war.

The purpose of the trip was "to bring a message of cooperation from U.S. financial services" and to discuss foreign investment and the future role of U.S. businesses in Colombia.

Some reading in between the lines said to me that Grasso's mission related to the continued circulation of cocaine capital through the US financial system. FARC, the Colombian rebels, were circulating their profits back into local development without the assistance of the American banking and investment system. Worse yet for the outlook for the US stock market's strength from $500 billion - $1 trillion in annual money laundering - FARC was calling for the decriminalization of cocaine.


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 02:44:42 PM | link

SUNSET IN THE SUNSHINE STATE
Florida, the state currently ruled by the Emir's slightly smarter brother, is working hard to repeal its sunshine law, i.e. the law that requires all meetings of two or more legislators to be open to the public. The
Orlando Sentinel provides the details:
The Florida Senate, gripped by the fear of terrorism, is set to launch a barrage of legislation and rules that would allow lawmakers to meet and cut deals in secret.

All testimony, correspondence, staff reports and even senators' votes on anti-terrorism bills would be secret.

The bid to remove protections guaranteed for decades by the state's landmark "government in the sunshine" law gets under way today.

The Senate Rules Committee is expected to approve giving the Senate president the power to close any discussions of "possible acts of espionage, sabotage, attack and other acts of terrorism."
...

Operation Infinite Brush will undoubtedly be initiated to define just what "constitutes discussions about possible acts of espionage, sabotage, attack and other acts of terrorism."
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 12:55:24 PM | link

BONDAGE
Paul Krugman is very, very good today about the plan to issue war bonds. Note how the Treasury Secretary temporarily slipped back into the real world before the thought commissars could stop him.
The original war bonds were, of course, introduced during World War II, when the nation was mobilized for total war. Everyone was called upon to sacrifice; not only were consumer goods rationed, but taxes were sharply increased. War bonds made sense in this context: they were a substitute for consumer spending, releasing resources for a war effort that absorbed almost 40 percent of G.D.P.

Our current situation could hardly be more different. Even though the terrorist attack has made an increase in the defense budget inevitable, we're talking about a fraction of a percent of G.D.P. And because the economy is depressed, we want consumers to spend more, not less. So if war bonds are made available, they will be a substitute for . . . what? At best, they will offer the same return as ordinary government bonds, but carry different decorations. So people who buy war bonds will be doing no more for their country than people who choose postage stamps with a patriotic theme.

At worst, war bonds will offer a lower return than ordinary bonds. And if some people buy them nonetheless, what will they finance?

Here's where that tax bill enters the picture. The remarkable thing about the "stimulus" package that passed the Ways and Means Committee on a straight party-line vote is that it barely even pretends to serve its ostensible function. It consists largely of permanent tax cuts, not the temporary cuts that you would expect in a stimulus package. It systematically gives money to those least likely to spend it - that is, to high-income taxpayers, and above all to large corporations.

Some of the provisions in the House bill are simply mind-boggling. For example, there is a large retroactive tax cut for corporations that would lead to immediate rebates of hundreds of millions of dollars to each of a select list of giant companies, many of them in the energy industry (though the $1.4 billion check to I.B.M. would top the list).

On the other hand, there is almost nothing in the bill for people who might actually need more money. The extra unemployment benefits, in particular, are far less generous than those offered in the last recession, when the elder Bush was president.

The bill, in short, looks as if it was written by corporate lobbyists - and it probably was. Even Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was evidently embarrassed by the bill, dismissing its more outlandish components as "show business" designed to impress campaign donors.

But his remark was naïve. Those lobbyists are serious men, who are paid by their employers to deliver results, not gestures; they wouldn't have put those provisions in unless they thought they had enough power to get them enacted. And sure enough, the White House soon contradicted Mr. O'Neill; the president, declared Ari Fleischer, was "very pleased" with the House bill.

Which brings us back to those war bonds. The government not only isn't calling for shared sacrifice; it is "very pleased" with a proposal to give billions in handouts to corporations. And in that case, what is someone who buys a war bond really helping to finance? Put it this way: If the House has its way, the government will give far more in tax breaks to corporations over the next year than it will spend fighting terrorism. Yet somehow one suspects that people would not rush to buy "corporate tax-cut bonds."


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 11:31:28 AM | link

IDIOT WIND
Chris Floyd's
latest column tells of the irony inherent in Shrub rattling his toy saber in Iraq's direction.
For it's true that the Iraqi despot gassed his own people, and that for 20 years he's been developing weapons of mass destruction. But what Bush's statement elides is that Saddam's development and use of these weapons was enthusiastically abetted and countenanced by a previous occupant of the Oval Office named George Bush.

For years, Pa Bush and Ronald Reagan shoveled money, weapons and "dual-use" technology at Saddam -- ignoring warnings from the CIA, the Pentagon, the State Department and others that the dictator was using this technology to develop ballistic missiles and augment his arsenal of unconventional weapons. Some of the materials sent to Iraq with the OK of the Reagan and Bush administrations included the chemical agents for botulism, tetanus, West Nile Fever and anthrax.

The atrocity that Bush Jr. mentioned last week occurred in 1988, when Saddam murdered some 4,000 Iraqi Kurds with poison gas. This was carried out with helicopters purchased from the United States. The next year, with Pa firmly in the Oval cockpit, the CIA informed the White House that Iraq was greatly accelerating its secret nuclear program -- and had become the world's leading producer of chemical weapons.

So what did Pa do? Why, he signed a National Security Directive ordering even closer ties to the poisoner. He also overrode his own Cabinet to force through $1 billion in agricultural credits to Saddam, after international banks had stopped giving him loans. Once again, Bush was shown evidence that the aid was being diverted to military uses -- but Pa had faith in his old ally. There was too much oil and backdoor money binding the two leaders: an alliance sealed with the blood of Saddam's many victims. No need to worry.

By the summer of 1990, Saddam was clearly gunning for Kuwait and openly threatening to "burn half of Israel" with his biochemical weapons. But Pa was indulgent with his frisky prot?g?: In the two weeks before the invasion of Kuwait, Bush approved the sale of an additional $4.8 million in "dual-use" technology to factories identified by the CIA as linchpins of Saddam's illicit nuclear and biochemical programs. Shortly before Saddam sent his tanks across the border, Pa obligingly sold him more than $600 million worth of advanced communication technology.

Floyd also responds to those who would call him a nattering nabob of negativism by setting out what he calls "some personal parameters":
In Jerusalem, in the generation before Jesus of Nazareth, the greatest teacher of the age was Rabbi Hillel, the renowned Pharisee. One day, a mocker came to him and sneered: "If you can teach me the whole of the Law while standing on one leg, then I will follow your Way." Rabbi Hillel answered and said: "Do not do to others what you don't want them to do to you. That is the whole of the Law; the rest is commentary. Go, and study."

Many years later, in Russia, a man named Solzhenitsyn harrowed the hell we make on earth and distilled a harsh wisdom into these stern lines: "The wolfhound is right; the cannibal is wrong."


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 11:15:32 AM | link

SUSPEND WHEN INSECURE
A War Street Journal
idiotorial attempts to calm the fears of the proles about the planned emasculation of the Bill of Rights. I've searched diligently, but I still can't find the section that says, "feel free to suspend whatever you want whenever you feel insecure."
To respond, we as a nation will have to confront some hard choices. The enormity of the risk to civilian lives on American soil is unprecedented, yet despite this the Bush administration has thus far shown remarkable restraint. But as the president weighs what additional measures will be needed, both the administration and civil libertarians would do well to recall that our history demonstrates that war-time restrictions on civil liberties have neither been irrevocable nor have they curtailed our fundamental freedoms in times of peace. Indeed, our democracy can, and has, outlived temporary restrictions and continued to thrive.

And if, as we get thicker into this grim conflict, the administration deems it necessary to enact more restrictive steps, we need not fear. When our nation is again secure, so too will be our principles.

I'd dig up some similar propaganda from a fascist German paper in the 30s, but why bother?
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 10:58:18 AM | link

THE MORALITY OF BOMBING
Retired Lt. Col. Dave Grossman's
The Morality of Bombing: Psychological Responses to "Distant Punishment" offers an interesting perspective on aerial bombing, i.e. "distant punishment." He concludes:
The bottom line is that, outside of a small cabal inside the Air Force, and some self-serving members of the aerospace industry, there is no intellectual, historical, or scientific basis of support for distant punishment as national policy.

There can be no doubt. There can be no denial. The irrefutable truth is that, with very, very few exceptions, distant punishment in the form of aerial bombing is: psychiatrically unsound, psychologically impotent, strategically counterproductive, morally bankrupt, and likely to soon be illegal.

Thus there is very little justification for basing national policy on the effectiveness of air strikes. Or for directing precious national resources toward conducting any air strike. Unless it is in support of, and directed by, ground troops who can and will psychologically exploit it. Ground troops who will also have the moral courage to subsequently accept direct personal and national responsibility for whatever death and destruction results from that air strike. Nothing else should be acceptable for a democratic nation in the post-Cold War era.


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 10:46:30 AM | link

NEW WORLD MAP
Those crazy Aussies have put together an
updated map of the world. Click on it to get the full sized version.

New World Map

posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 10:23:28 AM | link

MEET THE NEW HYSTERIA ...
Someone who's reading Robert Caro's
The Path to Power, the first of Caro's multi-volume bio of LBJ, sent me the following excerpt which might have some relevance to today. Sam Johnson was LBJ's father, by the way.
In 1918 anti German hysteria was sweeping Texas. Germans who showed insufficient enthusiasm in purchasing Liberty Bonds were publicly horsewhipped: bands of armed men broke into the homes of German families who were rumored to have pictures of the Kaiser on the walls; a State Council of defense, appointed by the Governor, recommended that German (and all other foreign languages) be barred from the state forever. Hardly had Sam Johnson arrived in Austin in February, 1918, when debate began on House bill 15, which would make all criticism, even a remark made in casual conversation, of America's entry into the war, of Anerica's continuation in the war, of America's government in general, of America's army, Navy or Marine Corps, of their uniforms or of the American flag, a criminal offense punishable by terms to two to twenty-five years - and would give any citizen in Texas the power of arrest under the statute.

With fist-waving crowds shouting in the House galleries above, legislators raged at the Kaiser and at Germans in Texas, whom they called his "spies" (one legislator declared that the American flag had been hauled down in Fredericksburg Square and the German double eagle raised in its place) in an atmosphere that an observer called a `maelstrom of fanatical propaganda.' But Sam Johnson, standing tall, skinny and big-eared on the floor of the House, made a speech - remembered with admiration fifty years later by fellow members - urging the defeat of bill 15; although the text has been lost; the theme of the speech was that patriotism should be tempered with common sense and justice, and its peroration centered on the fact that the first American boy to die on the bloody battlefields of France was of German Descent.


posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 10:15:28 AM | link

OPERATION ONE VOICE
Michael Powell
whispered soothing words of comfort to media moguls in a speech in Beverly Hills yesterday. Brian Lowery fills in the details:
Here was Powell, after all, telling entertainment industry moguls precisely what they want to hear. And although many executives sought to put Al Gore in the White House, it's hard to imagine his lockbox yielding anyone to run the FCC--except perhaps Motion Picture Assn. of America Chairman Jack Valenti--who could caress TV's corporate bosses with more soothing prose.

Indeed, amid a deluge of industry consolidation that has washed company after company out of the television business--the latest being Sony Pictures Entertainment, which last week confirmed examining a plan to gut its Columbia TriStar TV production unit--Powell didn't offer independent producers so much as an umbrella. In fact, he actually suggested monopolies aren't necessarily a bad thing so long as they don't negatively affect the public, an assertion that will no doubt have Microsoft's Bill Gates scratching his pointed head. "We have, must and do look at this only from the perspective of the eyes and ears of the consumer," Powell told the Hollywood Radio and Television Society gathering.

While the FCC chairman conceded there is "rightful anxiety" about concentration of media ownership, he stressed that rules curtailing entertainment giants are outdated and the government must be shown strong justification to maintain them. Given the proliferation of channels, he added, television and media are "more diverse in 2001 than at any time in their history."

All of that sounds reasonable, perhaps, until you consider the staggering number of media outlets owned by a handful of companies and how major conglomerates have exploited existing guidelines to further their interests. It's also worth noting that if government has a limited role to play now, as Powell stated, the FCC has hardly been so reserved in helping bring us to this point.

For starters, the FCC opened the door (some would say Pandora's box) to consolidation in the early 1990s by eliminating long-standing rules that effectively barred a network from merging with a major studio. However, regulators left in place restrictions preventing foreign companies from owning TV stations, keeping studio owners Sony, Matsushita and Seagram from buying a broadcast network--although Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. somehow limboed under the bar despite its Australian lineage.
...
As it stands, Powell's regulatory scheme brings to mind the movie "Rollerball," where the rules of the game are gradually stripped away until there are none left, or at least no referee to enforce them. Whether this makes you cheer the merits of deregulation or quake in your boots, those grinning executives seemed to realize that they are playing in a league all their own, one with barely enough teams to yield a full round of playoffs.

For those interested in the sordid details of media conglomeration, Robert McChesney has made a career out of following such things. Try his Oligopoly: The Big Media Game Has Fewer Players for a start.
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 10:08:55 AM | link

PSYCHIC POWERS IN THE WHITE HOUSE
Wanna guess who anticipated the anthrax threat? The
Washington Post tells us:
On the night of the Sept. 11 attacks, the White House Medical Office dispensed Cipro to staff accompanying Vice President Dick Cheney as he was secreted off to the safety of Camp David, and told them it was "a precaution," according to one person directly involved.
I repeat a question I've asked before: What the hell did these people know and when did they know it?
posted by Steven Baum 10/24/2001 09:12:00 AM | link

Tuesday, October 23, 2001

DRUG INDUSTRY R&D MYTHS
Public Citizen's report
Rx R&D Myths: The Case Against the Drug Industry's R&D "Scare Card" inoculates against most of the outrageous lies perpetrated by the drug industry. It is especially timely given the industry's current machinations concerning anthrax treatments. Here are some excerpts from the executive summary, with the entire report available in PDF format.
This new Public Citizen report reveals how major U.S. drug companies and their Washington, D.C. lobby group, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), have carried out a misleading campaign to scare policy makers and the public. PhRMA's central claim is that the industry needs extraordinary profits to fund expensive, risky and innovative research and development (R&D) for new drugs. If anything is done to moderate prices or profits, R&D will suffer, and, as PhRMA's president recently claimed, "it's going to harm millions of Americans who have life-threatening conditions." But this R&D scare card - or canard - is built on myths, falsehoods and misunderstandings, all of which are made possible by the drug industry?s staunch refusal to open its R&D records to congressional investigators or other independent auditors.

Using government studies, company filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and documents obtained via the Freedom of Information Act, Public Citizen's report exposes the industry?s R&D claims:

  • The drug industry's claim that R&D costs total $500 million for each new drug (including failures) is highly misleading. Extrapolated from an often-misunderstood 1991 study by economist Joseph DiMasi, the $500 million figure includes significant expenses that are tax deductible and unrealistic scenarios of risks.
  • The actual after-tax cash outlay - or what drug companies really spend on R&D - for each new drug (including failures) according to the DiMasi study is approximately $110 million. (That's in year 2000 dollars, based on data provided by drug companies.)
  • A simpler measure - also derived from data provided by the industry - suggests that after-tax R&D costs ranged from $57 million to $71 million for the average new drug brought to market in the 1990s, including failures.
  • Industry R&D risks and costs are often significantly reduced by taxpayer-funded research, which has helped launch the most medically important drugs in recent years and many of the best-selling drugs, including all of the top five sellers in one recent year surveyed (1995).
  • An internal National Institutes of Health (NIH) document, obtained by Public Citizen through the Freedom of Information Act, shows how crucial taxpayer-funded research is to top-selling drugs. According to the NIH, taxpayer-funded scientists conducted 55 percent of the research projects that led to the discovery and development of the top five selling drugs in 1995.
  • The industry fought, and won, a nine-year legal battle to keep congressional investigators from the General Accounting Office from seeing the industry?s complete R&D records. Congress can subpoena the records but has failed to do so. That might owe to the fact that in 1999-2000 the drug industry spent $262 million on federal lobbying, campaign contributions and ads for candidates thinly disguised as "issue" ads.
  • Drug industry R&D does not appear to be as risky as companies claim. In every year since 1982, the drug industry has been the most profitable in the United States, according to Fortune magazine?s rankings. During this time, the drug industry?s returns on revenue (profit as a percent of sales) have averaged about three times the average for all other industries represented in the Fortune 500. It defies logic that R&D investments are highly risky if the industry is consistently so profitable and returns on investments are so high.

posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 05:10:17 PM | link

MORE GOOD GNUS
From the
Progressive Review we find out more about Pacifica getting just about what it deserves.
Following the lead of community radio station KGNU of Boulder, Colorado, 15 community radio stations nationwide will become "affiliates In exile" of Pacifica. These stations will suspend their affiliation and payments to the embattled network, with many of them diverting the funds to alternative news sources, including Free Speech Radio News (produced by former Pacifica stringers) and Pacifica's former flagship program Democracy Now!, currently forced to produce its programs "in exile," without the support of the network.

posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 03:57:05 PM | link

INSURANCE COMPANY BAILOUT
Jeff Taylor at Reason writes about the upcoming taxpayer bailout of the insurance companies.
The insurance industry bailout is well on its way to reality. The Bush administration wants the government to pay 80 percent of the first $20 billion of terrorist-related claims next year and 90 percent of the next $80 billion, capping the industry's total liability for any terrorist attacks next year at $12 billion.

In 2003, the industry's liability from terrorist claims would be capped at $23 billion; in 2004 the cap goes to $36 billion.

In sum, the proposal is a huge crutch to an industry that could sustain losses in the hundreds of billions before actual solvency was an issue. But lobbyists have convinced pols in Washington that solvency isn?t the issue--the real threat is higher premiums to reflect a supposedly greater terrorist threat. Those high premiums, the theory goes, would make it impossible to do business in big cities as employers decamped to places where premiums were lower.

Of course, the proper response to that doomsday scenario is: so what? Sooner or later those empty skyscrapers would look attractive to someone. Ditto new construction. If banks are too spooked to lend on new construction without gold-plated coverage, other investors will step into the breach, provided their prospective rewards outweigh the risks.

Government is being asked to outlaw risk on behalf of a group of well-connected players who still plan to collect handsome rewards. The way such schemes usually work out is that government is saddled with all the risk--almost always more risk than would otherwise be countenanced--and the rewards continue to flow to corporate hands, absent a small slice for lobbyists and members of Congress.

When the bailout becomes law, be sure to ask your banker and insurance agent for your terrorism-protection credit--you earned it.


posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 03:41:31 PM | link

PATHETIC SPIN ATTEMPTS
The Taliban report about a U.S. bomb striking a hospital in Afghanistan - widely denounced as an evil Taliban propaganda lie - has been
confirmed by the U.N.. I'm told that this was also admitted in a Pentagon briefing in the last hour or so, although they called it a "home for seniors." Even the U.N. report was attempting to spin the issue:
The United Nations confirmed Tuesday that a U.S. bomb had struck a military hospital in the western Afghan city of Herat but said it had no information regarding casualties.

Afghanistan's Taliban rulers had said a U.S. and British airstrike Monday hit a hospital, killing more than 100 patients and medical workers. They did not say whether it was a civilian or military hospital.

As if bombing either a "home for seniors" or a "military hospital" would be a better thing than bombing a "hospital." Imagine the scathing and indignant outcry if a "tourist" were to bomb a hospital in the U.S. and someone attempted to downplay it by calling it a "military hospital" or a "home for seniors."
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 02:14:55 PM | link

I SMELL A BAILOUT FOR ENRON
The following item leads me to speculate that: (a) the Oil Regime will most likely make this problem go away in the near future (after all, oil is vital to national security); and (b) the corporate bailout list will probably get longer before it gets shorter. From page C-1 of the 10/19/01 War Street Journal:
A limited partnership organized by Enron Corp.'s chief financial officer, Andrew S. Fastow, realized millions of dollars in profits in transactions it did with Enron , according to an internal partnership document.

The partnership, in some instances, benefited from renegotiating the terms of existing deals with the Houston energy company in ways that improved the partnership's financial positions or reduced its risk of losses.

Mr. Fastow, and possibly a handful of partnership associates, realized more than $7 million last year in management fees and about $4 million in capital increases on an investment of nearly $3 million in the partnership, which was set up in December 1999 principally to do business with Enron .

The profits from the deals were disclosed in a financial report to investors in the partnership, LJM2 Co-Investment LP, that was signed by Mr. Fastow as the general partner and dated April 30. In one case, the report indicates the partnership was able to improve profits by terminating a transaction early.

The LJM2 arrangement has become controversial for Enron , as shareholders and analysts have raised questions about whether it posed a conflict by putting the company's chief financial officer, who has a fiduciary duty to Enron shareholders, in a position of reaping financial rewards for representing LJM2 investors in business deals with Enron . Investors in LJM2 include Wachovia Corp., General Electric Co.'s General Electric Capital Corp. and Credit Suisse Group's Credit Suisse First Boston.

Attention has focused on Mr. Fastow's partnership activities at a tumultuous time for Enron , which over the past decade grew enormously by becoming the nation's biggest energy-trading company.

This year, though, it has been hit by a string of troubles, from soured business initiatives to executive departures. On Tuesday, Enron announced a $618 million third-quarter loss, because of a $1.01 billion write-off on investments in broadband telecommunications, retail energy services and Azurix Corp., a water company. A small chunk of that write-off, about $35 million, was attributed to ending certain LJM2-related transactions. That termination also produced a $1.2 billion reduction in Enron shareholder equity as the company decided to repurchase 55 million shares that had been part of LJM2 deals.

Enron's stock hit a three year low today.

In a related item, the Washington Post tells us about the new head of the SEC, which actually once existed to police the financial markets.

Harvey L. Pitt yesterday used his first formal speech as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission to signal a gentler relationship with the accounting profession, a frequent target of criticism under his predecessor.
...
The last SEC chairman, Arthur Levitt Jr., faulted accountants for doing too little to protect investors from misleading corporate financial reports and made accounting fraud a top enforcement priority.

"Somewhere along the way, accountants became afraid to talk to the SEC, and the SEC appeared unwilling to listen to the profession," Pitt said. "Those days are ended."
...
Pitt said in an interview yesterday that he is trying to make the SEC "a kindler, gentler place for everyone," not just accountants. Pitt said he feels "very strongly that the government is a service business, and that's why I want to set a new standard of discourse."

Imagine the outcry if the head of the FBI or a police chief said that he was going to run a kindler, gentler agency because somewhere along the way, suspects became afraid to talk to them, and that he believed very strongly that they were a service business. Yep, look for that Enron difficulty to disappear.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 01:41:12 PM | link

FOR REASONS OF NATIONAL SECURITY
A source, who we'll call "Deep Goat", tells me:
... firms are now siccing feds on those of us in the computer security industry that might reveal problems with their products, pretty much what many in the industry have been predicting would happen. Now that we have the war on terrorism up and running, the feds are more than happy to swoop in and show that they're taking this war very seriously.
He writes this in regard to a
replacement column by Bob Rosenberger at Vmyths, a site about "computer virus myths, hoaxes, urban legends and hysteria." The replacement column begins:
First, I to thank the three uniformed federal police who visited me in the middle of the night. I appreciate the fact they knocked politely and never drew their guns.

Second, let me offer a note of thanks to the plainclothes federal agent who interviewed me. I appreciate the fact he didn't haul me off to an interrogation room.

Third, I want to thank the antivirus vendor who helped put this ball in motion. An embarrassing column about them will never see the light of day for {ahem} "national security reasons." The war against cyber-terrorism requires utmost secrecy. Or at least that's what I hear.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 01:30:05 PM | link

INTERESTING PARALLELS
The varmint what has my copy of Thomas Szasz's Ceremonial Chemistry just emailed me with this excerpt that is itself an excerpt from a article in a Slovak communist party paper from 1972. Note the parallels between this agitprop for the Communist Holy War on Religion and the usual boilerplate warnings hauled out for the current Holy War on Drugs (or Devil Music or Unpatriotic Speech or Whatever Is Threatening Our Precious Chilluns This Week).
... religion constitutes a grave hazard for the mental health of children. Religion interferes with sound and harmonious emotional development ... it impedes social adaptability, creating the conditions for the emergence of delinquency. By burdening the nervous system, it leads to pyschical disorders. It brings up individuals with an undermined will and stands in the way of the development of fine moral sentiments ... It weakens the will to learn, leading to lower grades.
Just seach and replace the villain noun and update the jargon to apply this to anything the totalitarian mindset wants to eradicate this week.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 01:19:54 PM |
link

THE OTHER NRA
While the National Rifle Assocation is basically a pack of annoying gun fetishists, the National Reform Association is nutbar city. If things were relatively normal this second NRA's goal to thoroughly "Christianize" (using of course their specific warping of that concept) all aspects of society would hardly be worth more than a chuckle and a sneer. But given the current "anything goes if it'll help fight tourism" climate, and the connections these people have to the Regime, they just might be turning into a matter of legitimate concern. The
Feminist Daily News Wire fills in some details:
Jeffrey Ziegler, President of the National Reform Association (NRA), a Pittsburgh, PA based Christian Reconstructionist organization, has announced plans to form a political action committee and public policy organization, officially entering Washington?s world of politics. The NRA hopes that through "Operation Potomac" it can begin lobbying, developing political campaigns, and grooming potential candidates to run at the federal level. The NRA and Christian Reconstructionism, however, already have close ties to Washington. NRA members have met with several Republicans in the House and Senate during three trips to Washington, DC made since July 2000. House Whip Tom DeLay (R-TX) is reportedly helping NRA members organize a "biblical worldview" conference on Capital Hill next year, and President Bush may be considering J. Robert Brame III, board member of Reconstructionist group American Vision as a member of the National Labor Relations Board. Brame has written that the "only sure guide is Divinely-inspired Biblical law superintended by the God Who watches over His Word."

Christian Reconstructionist ideology is the most radical expression of the Religious Right. Believing that the Bible should be the basis of government, education, and law, Reconstructionists envision an extremist society in which public schools, most social service programs, and welfare would be obliterated. According to Reconstructionist belief, the Bible allows liberal application of the death penalty for crimes including homosexuality, abortion, adultery, child disobedience, and witchcraft. Acceptable forms of capital punishment supposedly outlined in the Bible include burning, stoning, and hanging. Slavery is also acceptable, according to Reconstructionists who claim that the Bible does not outlaw all of its methods.


posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 01:06:11 PM | link

IMAGES
A
collection of images pertaining to recent events.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 11:26:51 AM | link

CARLYLE GROUP IN DAMAGE CONTROL MODE
The
Carlyle Group, whose web sites are now in their fifth week of "redesign," are deep into damage control mode in an attempt to deflect recent bad publicity in even such usually friendly outlets as the Wall Street Journal and Judicial Watch. A London Times article provides details:
THE family of Osama bin Laden is close to ending its relationship with the Carlyle Group, the US investment group backed by George Bush Snr, the former President, and John Major, the former Prime Minister.

It is understood that Carlyle Group and the Saudi Binladin Group, the Middle Eastern conglomerate owned by the family of bin Laden, have decided to part company by "mutual consent".

The end of the relationship comes in spite of the fact that Osama bin Laden, the terrorist blamed for the September 11 attacks against the US, has been disowned by the family. The family has distanced itself even further from the al-Qaeda leader by using a different spelling of its name.

It is also thought that Mr Bush has signalled his determination to remain an adviser to Carlyle, whose interests in the defence industry make it the eleventh largest military contractor in the US.


posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 11:17:24 AM | link

IRONY, SILVERY, BRONZEY ALL LIVING
E. C. Fish offers some choice words over at The Spleen:
And how could irony truly die in a year when the President both refuses to endorse an enforcement regime for the existing bio/ chem warfare treaty and presides over the government's response to anthrax in the mails? While its true that the procedures put in place by the proposed changes to the treaty would have done little or nothing to alleviate the current circumstance, with something as indefensible as germ warfare, being on the side of the angels counts for alot. President Bush failed to put us there, and for reasons so spurious that the possibility that he's only against the treaty amendments because Bill Clinton was for them seems less ridiculous than the official explanation.

W. is getting alot of credit these days for reversing the unilateralism that marked his foreign policy prior to 9/11-- in this context, it would make perfect sense for him to revisit the bio/chem treaty, the Kyoto accords, and the other various and sundry slights and snubs he inflicted on nations that we currently are counting on as allies. Fat chance that he does so, however. While Bush has had us rallying 'round the flag for the last six weeks, his main allegiance remains to the business combines that financed and elected him, and it is in defense of business interests that both the bio/chem and Kyoto treaties were rejected. Far from revisiting these issues, Bush seems likely to use the occasion of war to arrogate unto himself even more unchecked power in international circles, both through the military and through "fast track" trade negotiations.

As the leader of a nation that is currently dealing with the fruits of biological warfare, it would behoove George W. Bush to take some action, however symbolic, against these vilest of weapons. It will be interesting, in the long run, to see whose interests get protected in the current crisis. If it isn't we, the people, then we need to reconsider exactly what we're fighting for, because it sure as hell wouldn't look much like freedom and democracy.

One might add to Mr. Fish's comments that the fact that a missile defense system wouldn't have done jack-diddly in the way of stopping the 9/11 attacks isn't stopping the Regime from now promoting it as a "tourism" deterrent.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 11:10:06 AM | link

PATRIOTICALLY CORRECT
Brendan Nyhan details how the traditional right-wing enemies of supposed "political correctness" on the left are now bloviating out of the other sides of their mouths about enforcing "patriotic correctness." The biggest-mouthed and most egregiously hypocritical malefactor is, as you might guess, David "From One Extreme to the Other" Horowitz. Just a few months after whining that liberal, anti-free speech college papers across the country wouldn't print his ad about slavery reparations being a bad idea, Horowitz is shrieking for the suppression of free speech with which he disagrees.
Even more hypocritical, however, has been the offensive against the anti-war Left by conservative provocateur David Horowitz. Last seen stirring up controversy with college newspaper ads criticizing plans for slavery reparations (some of which prompted shameful displays from opponents), Horowitz has preached the dangers of closed debate on campus for years. But the current crisis has revealed his true colors.

Horowitz's website, FrontPageMagazine.com, has been a center of hysterical anti-Left discourse since September 11. In fact, it took the lead in publishing the first major call for the direct suppression of speech on September 21 with an article ominously entitled "America's Enemies Rally at UNC-Chapel Hill." The authors, two University of North Carolina students, condemn panelists at a campus teach-in who "stepped forward with one Anti-American libel after another," calling the event, "a shameful example of how state-funded universities are responding to the deadliest terror attacks in our nation's history." A box at the end of the article delivers the anti-speech goods: "Tell the good folks at UNC-Chapel Hill what you think of their decision to allow Anti-American rallies on their state-sponsored campus. Chancellor James Moeser can be reached at..."

A less well-known footnote to the agitprop of Horowitz is that, even at the time many liberal college newspapers were refusing to run his ad about slavery reparations, a higher percentage of conservative college newspapers were refusing to run an ad by David Mazel about abortion not being murder.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 10:57:38 AM | link

AFGHANISTAN NOT OFFICIALLY TERRORIST BEFORE 9/11
Robert Parry tells us how the politics were so deep and thick before 9/11 that Afghanistan hadn't even been identified as an "official" terrorist state.
Those worries are well grounded. On the issue of terrorism, Washington has long subordinated facts to ideology and politics, giving the world little confidence that the U.S. selection of countries deserving retribution would be fair.

These ideological judgments are demonstrated by this year's choice of seven nations that the State Department officially designated terrorist. One is Cuba, though the State Department report cites no examples of Fidel Castro's government engaging in terrorism, accusing it only of providing safe haven to alleged terrorists from the Basque region of Spain and having links to guerrilla groups in Colombia.

By contrast, the State Department?s terrorist list did not include Afghanistan. This glaring omission comes although the Taliban regime was aiding and abetting bin Laden and his al Qaeda network, which was believed responsible for the bombings of U.S. embassies in Africa and was allegedly behind terrorist plots aimed at the United States.

Fingering Afghanistan, however, might have embarrassed the Saudis, the Pakistanis and the CIA, all of which had a hand in creating the current mess in that country.

It's like a temporal version of the spatial shell game played with the Kurds. Just as a Kurd walking across the border from Iraq to Turkey goes from being a good Kurd to a bad Kurd, a state that wasn't officially terrorist at 8 AM on 9/11 became officially terrorist within days if not hours.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 10:37:04 AM | link

MONEY LAUNDERERS STONEWALL
As I've said before and will say again, one of the great unpublicized secrets of the Holy War on Drugs is that, if the oft-quoted number of $400 billion per year in drug profits is true, a whole lot of people in high financial places are knowingly hip deep in the drug trade. But, while it may be politically expedient to fill the jails with powerless, street-level junkies and pushers - usually of minority persuasion - it's not at all expedient to go after the big money boys. But, since all seem to agree that the terrorism scourge is largely funded by the drug scourge, there's some movement afoot to do something about the laundering, although the folks you might suspect are putting up some resistance. Robert Morgenthau provides some
perspective on the matter.
We are at a critical juncture in the fight to cut off the funding for Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network and other terrorist groups. Both the United States Senate and the House have taken important steps by passing anti-money-laundering measures that are now being considered in relation to broader antiterrorism legislation. The danger is that this badly needed money-laundering legislation will be killed by potent special interests, including the American Bankers Association, that oppose it. They are keeping a low profile, but their tactic is to separate the money laundering provisions from others in the omnibus antiterrorism bill and then stall them to death. If that happens, the government will be deprived of a powerful weapon in this fight.
He goes on to discuss how Osama bin Laden and his network need $40 million a year for basis operations, and how they probably get it. Then he gets to the problem:
But for now the money can be transmitted and laundered in secret and spent in secret. That is true largely because the so-called off- shore jurisdictions maintain confidential banking centers that are plugged into the financial systems of the United States and other industrialized countries.

To get a sense of the problem, one need only consider the curious example of the Cayman Islands, a Caribbean nation with a population of about 35,000. Banks in the islands have deposits of about $800 billion. That is nearly 20 percent of dollar deposits in the United States, and represents over $22 million for each person in the Caymans.

Under current law, it is extremely difficult to find out who the owners of the offshore accounts are. And that creates huge obstacles for law enforcement officials who wish to prevent terrorists and other criminals from using these accounts. In the Bank of Credit and Commerce International case, for example - the bank was involved with drug-money laundering, the illegal shipment of arms and bribery of government officials - the majority of money transfers went through B.C.C.I. Overseas, chartered in Grand Cayman. Osama bin Laden was himself a B.C.C.I. customer. To date, President Bush has ordered that the accounts of 66 individuals and organizations thought to be tied to terrorism be frozen. That list means nothing if we cannot identify the accounts.

Some opponents of changes that would require transparent banking transactions express concern for privacy. Whose privacy are they out to protect? American law already requires that you and I disclose our identities when we conduct a financial transaction. There is no reason offshore account holders who tie into the American financial system should be better shielded than domestic account holders are. There is no reason why their transactions should not also be open to scrutiny.

And it's not even really a matter of privacy, but rather a matter of if the wealthy will get to keep yet another privilege denied to the proles, in this case the ability to hide their financial transactions.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 10:06:19 AM | link

AND THE LAWYERS WERE REJOICING
If the following paragraph from a
NYTimes article about an insurance squabble concerning the WTC doesn't make a lawyer drool with anticipation, then maybe he's in the wrong profession.
Complicating the picture is the fact that there was no insurance policy yet issued on the properties when they were destroyed. Since the Port Authority transferred management of the properties to a group of investors led by Mr. Silverstein shortly before the attack, the insurance policy was under negotiation at the time the buildings collapsed and final wording had not been completed. The insurers have agreed to be bound by the "binder" agreements on the coverage although differences of opinion emerged yesterday about their interpretation.

posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 09:55:53 AM | link

POWER GRAB DENIED
The tear-soaked eyes in the White House saw yet another opportunity a few days ago when they floated a trial balloon about Congress granting them "emergency powers" to continue government operations if Congress couldn't meet. Fortunately, a small amount of sanity seems to be returning to Congress, seeing how they
denied giving the "Regime that would be absolute" yet another "emergency" power that's unnecessary and probably unconstitutional. An excerpt from the Washington Post story shows the typical White House modus operandi:
We were willing to give them some short-term authority if they had the agreement of both parties in both houses," Obey said. Aides to President Bush talked about such a plan with congressional aides, but the Bush proposal "was very different from what had been discussed on the phone," Obey said. "On both sides of the aisle in the House it was felt that was too far-reaching."
The pattern lately has been to float an idea in the press, make an informal call to a Congressperson or three wherein some moderate form of the proposal is suggested and taken seriously by both sides, and then come up with a formal proposal that far exceeds anything discussed and agreed upon up to that point. That way the White House can publicly gripe about how Congress isn't allowing them to properly save America from "tourism", and hope the rhetorical push is enough to get any "tourism supporters" in line. Fortunately, it didn't work this time.
posted by Steven Baum 10/23/2001 09:46:02 AM | link

Monday, October 22, 2001

FROM THOSE WONDERFUL FOLKS...
Alice Thompson of the
Daily Torygraph tells us of the latest strategic (or "strategeric" if you prefer Bushspeak) move on the part of Colin Powell, i.e. appointing an official Undersecretary of Propaganda.
SHE has promoted Head and Shoulders shampoo, Uncle Ben's Rice, Gillette razors and American Express. Now Charlotte Beers has been put in charge of marketing the West. Colin Powell has made this advertising guru his under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs.

Her job is to re-brand America and her allies, then sell them to the Muslim world. The West must look tough but caring, confident yet benign. Revenge is out. This isn't a war between Pepsi and Coke, East and West. It's all about making the world a safer place for Christians, Jews and Muslims.

And debunking Osama bin Laden. The caveman must be made to look like an insane terrorist, not a prophet, but a warped mind who has turned thousands of children into orphans. The Taliban must be seen for what it is, a charlatan cult that is as happy to chop off a child's hand as to blow up a 1,500-year-old statue of Buddha, and whose idea of recreation is growing poppies for heroin and stoning boys whose beards are too short. Ms Beers intends to target the younger and more receptive Muslims. "It's the battle for the 11-year-old mind," she said.

How about, "Hey Osama, where's the beef?"
posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2001 11:04:10 PM | link

SSSCA
This has undoubtedly made the rounds, but it's worth repeating in case it's gotten lost in the haze after 9/11. Declan McCullagh's
Politech provides links about and the text to the Security Systems Standards and Certification Act. What is it?
Imagine that suddenly, all distributions of GNU/Linux were illegal in the United States. As well as Zope, Python, Perl, Apache, and all other open source software products. While that arguably may not be the goal of the Security Systems Standard & Certification Act, it would surely be a result. The SSSCA would outlaw any digital device - including personal computers - that did not include a copy protection mechanism. Right now the only thing keeping it from happening are the events surrounding 11 September. The bill, written by Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-SC) - chair of the Senate Commerce Committee - with a lot of help from Disney and Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., can best be thought of as a sort of appendix to the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. It is clearly designed to further extend legal protections for digital content owned or licensed by enormous media conglomerates. According to the draft language of the bill, it would be illegal to create or distribute "any interactive digital device that does not include and utilize certified security technologies" approved by the Commerce Department.

Even though MIT professor and RSA Data Security co-founder Ron Rivest has referred to the proposed legislation as the "Digital Rectal Thermometer Security Act" it's really just mandatory corporate welfare for media conglomerates subsidized by the actual creators and consumers of intellectual property. Felony penalties for distributing copyrighted material without the "certified security technologies" fully enabled or using a computer that circumvents those technologies are up to five years in prison and fines up to US$500,000.


posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2001 10:57:25 PM | link

PACIFICA FOUNDATION SELF-DESTRUCTS
Progressive Review relates a heartwarming tale about the Pacifica Foundation, who've spent the last couple of years trying to do to progressive radio what Kissinger did to Cambodia and Chile.
Pacifica Foundation officers have told KPFA management that the organization is out of money, having spent over two million dollars over the past three years on corporate law firms, security services, and public relations agencies. About 90 percent of Pacific's funding comes from listener donations. Listeners who donated money were not told their money would be used, or was being used, for these purposes, and have sued (along with dissident national board directors) to protest Pacific's financial and administrative practices. KPFA now has over $100,000 in unpaid and overdue bills, including $9,400 to PG&E for electricity.
Show your appreciation by listening to Amy Goodman's Democracy Now in Exile, which was reorganized as WBIX.org after being treated like a red-headed stepchild by Pacifica.
posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2001 10:48:38 PM | link

SAILORS AS GUINEA PIGS
The
Hartford Courant (via Progressive Review) tells a nasty tale of gummint chemical and biological weapon experiments using sailors.
He kept the secret for 30 years. The former Navy skipper told no one about the classified tests of Project Shad, how the Marine jets came screaming out of the night off a remote Pacific atoll, spraying a 100-mile-long aerosol cloud over his five tugboats. Then Jack Alderson's men started getting sick.

"Some of the guys tried to go to the Pentagon or the American Legion and said, `I did biological warfare testing.' They basically threw them out, told them they were crazy," said Alderson, many of whose former crew complain of chronic respiratory problems. "They told them, `We didn't do things like that.'"

But now, after seven years of inquiries from veterans, Congress and the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Pentagon has confirmed that thousands of sailors were present during a decadelong series of classified tests to determine the vulnerability of U.S. warships to attack by chemical and biological warfare.

In a series of "fact sheets" given to veterans' hospitals and organizations last month without wider public notice, the Pentagon acknowledged that some of the tests involved spraying live biological weapons over U.S. ships, including Alderson's tugs. Pentagon officials say that nerve agents such as sarin and VX gas also were used, but they refuse to disclose where, when and how.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2001 10:34:51 PM | link

THE MINISTRY OF PROPAGANDA
Carla Binion details the propaganda apparatus set up during the Gipper years to lie to the American public. Keep in mind that this was done as a response to the supposed threat Nicaragua posed to truth, justice and the American way. Also remember that this was done in the days before Dan Rather and the "liberal" media swore a loyalty oath to the Regime.
Parry says that in the early 1980s, the Reagan administration debated the need for a propaganda apparatus in order to control public opinion. "Summarizing this debate," writes Parry, "Kate Semerad, an external-relations official at the Agency for International Development, expressed something like envy for the power of totalitarian states to determine what citizens see and hear."

In a memo circulated in the early 80s, Semerad wrote, "The totalitarian states whose intelligence and propaganda apparatus we face have no internal problem in denying their citizens access to information or even flagrantly lying to them. We have neither the apparatus nor the legal mechanism which would allow the success of an effort to emulate that of Moscow, Habana [sic] and Managua."

Parry adds the Semerad memo said a U. S. propaganda apparatus was necessary. "We can and must go over the heads of our Marxist opponents directly to the American people," Semerad wrote. She also said, "Our targets would be: within the United States, the Congress, specifically the Foreign Affairs Committees and their staffs, . . . the general public [and] the media."

According to Parry, "the fledgling [propaganda] operation took the initial name of 'Project Truth.' Later . . . Reagan gave the concept the name 'Project Democracy' and its ostensible focus was international." Internal Reagan administration records show that a Project Democracy draft proposal detailed plans to pay for the operation by 'harnessing financial resources from a 'coalition of wealthy individuals'; U. S. defense contractors and private foundations."

The Project Truth/Project Democracy group recruited CIA propaganda operations expert Walter Raymond, Jr. President Reagan chose Raymond to manage both the domestic and foreign "public diplomacy" campaigns aimed at the American public, the media and Congress. Raymond was assigned to the National Security Council staff in 1982.
...


posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2001 11:09:52 AM | link

VERE ARE YOUR PAPERS!!!!
Al Martin offers another grim look at the future of "democracy" under the current Regime.
What has not been explained to the American people is the reason why 35,000 Army Reservists and 65,000 National Guard have been called up. It is to maintain internal checkpoints. It has nothing to do with the external "War on Terrorism." All of these people are being trained at the US Army School of Urban Control at Fort Campbell, Kentucky. CNN actually showed an urban training mock-up, what they're training on, and what the new Internal Security checkpoint is going to look like. It was mighty sinister looking.

There was a barrier that went across the road. To the right was an elevated shed like structure, elevated perhaps fifteen feet in the air. It had a small second story that was open. On it was a sign that read "Homeland Security Internal Checkpoint." There were sandbags and the wooden arm that crossed the road read "100% ID Checked." Then there was a small shed to the right with a small barbed wire area behind that. On this structure was a sign, which read, "All citizens not having proper identification will be detained. All foreign nationals will be detained. All citizens who are deemed to be acting in a suspicious manner will be detained." At each of these posts there will be six armed Army or National Guard reservists with M-16's with full field kit. On top of the structure to the rear, the open structure on top, there's a man with a machine gun emplacement.
...
There's a spot on the gate that goes across the road that they had x-ed out. But you could tell what it said because the sergeant alluded to it. It said, "All citizens are required to present their National Identification Cards." But they left it blank as a black spray-painted out spot because the legislation for that hasn't happened yet.

The big sign on the side of the one and half story shed with the machine gun nest on top said "Homeland Security Internal Checkpoint." And now we're all supposed to say, "Hail the Republic." That's the new mantra. They showed a bunch of guys being trained at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, probably enlisted and reservists and such. And they kept raising up their right arm saying, "Hail the Republic."

The sergeant even said that they are duplicating the ancient Roman Legions salute to Caesar, using the right arm upraised with the fist. Instead of "Hail Caesar," though they say, "Hail the Republic."
...
And this is what we should be looking forward to - toll booths around the nation. They're not saying this yet, but obviously in an effort to pay for this, there's going to be some sort of a "security tax." Since this system is incredibly cumbersome (having to stop every single vehicle and check identification) and we've been taught to be suspicious of driver's licenses because it's so easy to obtain false driver's licenses, the implication is that national security cards are the only thing that will eventually be accepted as identification. The further implication is that in order to accommodate traffic (this will create traffic jams miles and miles long), there would be a separate line for those carrying pre-approved internal visas whose allegiance to the government has already been checked.
...
Surprisingly enough all these border checks, you would think, would be handled directly by the military - or under the auspices of the military. They're not. They're under the auspices of "Homeland Security." What it means is that you have 100,000 troops (reservists and national guards people) based in the United States, which will be seconded to the Office of Homeland Security. Their ultimate jurisdiction is being transferred from the Department of Defense to the Office of Homeland Security.

In other words, the Office of Homeland Security is gaining a militarized division of 100,000 troops.

Al then reveals how the "liberal" media are grabbing their jars of vaseline and ankles for Ubergruppenfuhrer Ridge. They might have to make a futher change to HappyActionFuntime Security for the younger folks, with perhaps NSync being used to advertise the change.
According to a reliable inside source, all the mainstream media outlets have received a confidential memorandum from the White House asking that they change the monikers they're using "Homeland Security" to "Home Front Security." Apparently they believe that "Home Front Security" sounds more patriotic and less sinister than "Home Land Security."

They have also asked the media not to show any more footage of the urban training and internal security checkpoints and to minimize the coverage of any "future" troop movements within the United States. The implication is that when these internal security checkpoints get set up, there will be a lot of movement of troops, helicopters, etc. So as not to disturb the domestic tranquility of the people by telling the people the truth, the government is asking the media to limit coverage of any domestic troop movements.

All the media will comply because they're all dying to jump on the government line. MSNBC has in fact changed their moniker form "Homeland Security" to "Home Front Security." "Home Front" is more homey sounding and much more patriotic. It strikes a chord with a lot of people especially older people who remember this being so extensively used for security measures put in place during the Second World War.

Then he gets to the history and current efficacy of those terrorist asset seizures we're being told are so successful lately.
The Treasury Department's current pronouncements that the terrorist assets they're freezing every day is just so much nonsense. They're not giving us any details about who owns these accounts or how they know they're connected to terrorist groups. One of the accounts they seized in California? Upon further investigation, it turned out that the account with $346 in it was in fact the coffee and donut fund for the local Arab American Chamber of Commerce.
Yep, the real war's starting.
posted by Steven Baum 10/22/2001 10:42:53 AM | link

Sunday, October 21, 2001

STATISTICAL CENSUS COUNTS UNCONSTITUTIONAL?
Someone writes that I shouldn't whine about the GOP refusing to allow statistical estimates of the U.S. population since it's unconstitutional anyway. While my main point in the previous item was that the GOP is not only disallowing the use of such methods for official estimates, they are also attempting to make even unofficial estimates performed by the Census Bureau unavailable, I'll address the issue of Constitutionality via a
report by Robert Landers from a workshop at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in 1998. As is usual in such cases, it's a matter of interpretation, in this case of the word "enumeration." But, to belabor the issue, whether or not using the estimates for official counts is Constitutional has nothing to do with making the estimates available as unofficial counts, which many have already said they'd find useful. The Constitution says absolutely nothing about the latter.
The litigation and controversy over the prospective use of statistical sampling in the 2000 census have sent scholars back to the Constitution and the first U.S. census, in 1790, in search of guidance. The main conclusion to emerge from this workshop--cochaired by Margo J. Anderson, a Wilson Center Fellow and historian at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, and Stephen E. Fienberg, a professor of statistics and social science at Carnegie Mellon University--seemed to be that, contrary to some claims, the Founding Fathers have precious little guidance to offer.

The GOP-controlled House of Representatives has challenged in court the Clinton administration's plans to use statistical sampling to correct for the large number of black Americans--an estimated 5.7 percent in 1990, compared with 1.3 percent of whites--and other minorities who will not be counted in the census. (The uncounted are mostly in poor urban neighborhoods.) In November, the Supreme Court heard arguments in that case, as well as in a related lawsuit brought by private plaintiffs. Lower courts had ruled against the administration in both cases.

The Constitution originally provided (Article 1, Section 2) that members of the House of Representatives were to be apportioned among the states "according to their respective Numbers," and that, "The actual Enumeration" would take place "within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress," and every 10 years thereafter. Opponents of statistical sampling have put much weight on the phrase "actual Enumeration," contending that the Framers wanted a head count, not an estimation. Thomas Jefferson, who as secretary of state was in charge of the first census, "was familiar with methods of statistical estimation, having used them effectively in his 1782 survey of Virginia's population," the House brief in the current lawsuit claims, but did not use them to adjust the 1790 census results.

However, while Jefferson had "demonstrated considerable practical ingenuity in producing estimates in the absence of a census," says Daniel Scott Smith, a historian at the University of Illinois at Chicago, he did not draw inferences from a sample. The French mathematician Pierre Simon de Laplace was at work on probability theory in France, but Eugene Seneta, a professor of mathematical statistics at the University of Sydney, Australia, says, after an investigation of the matter, that there is no evidence that Jefferson had any knowledge of it.

The federal government has never attempted to make a physical headcount of everyone in the country, Anderson and Fienberg note. Rather, heads of households have been asked, in person or by mail, to report on their households. Nor does the phrase "actual Enumeration" seem laden with any great significance. The Framers, observes Seneta, "knew nothing of sampling as such, and could not have rejected its use." Reviewing the legislative history of the 1790 law authorizing the nation's first census, Charlene Bickford, director of the First Federal Congress Project, points out that the Senate struck out the word actual from both the title and the text of the law. Apparently, the Senate did not consider the adjective as adding anything vital to the noun.

The Framers of the Constitution seem to have paid little attention to how the census was to be carried out. Indeed, censuses, conducted at England's request and in various ways, were common occurrences in the colonies during the 18th century, notes Robert V. Wells, a historian at Union College.


posted by Steven Baum 10/21/2001 07:39:02 PM | link


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